THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been a busy night across the global stage, with developments spanning from Washington to East Asia.

In the U.S., Trump grabbed headlines with comments about Nancy Pelosi and a major new investment deal with Uzbekistan, while the UN took a significant step in lifting sanctions on Syria’s president ahead of his White House visit. In the Middle East, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have reignited tensions with Hezbollah, and North Korea has once again tested a ballistic missile off its east coast.

In today’s deep dive, a lot has happened in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and we’re covering all the main hot spots.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump calls Nancy Pelosi ‘evil woman’ after she announces retirement
Trump sharply criticised Nancy Pelosi following her retirement announcement, calling the former House Speaker an “evil woman” and claiming her departure did a “great service” for the country. He accused her of being a "tremendous liability" and said she cost the country “a lot… in damages and in reputation.” Pelosi, who served nearly four decades and became the first woman Speaker of the House, announced she will not seek reelection.
read more 

2. Israel launches heavy airstrikes on Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched heavy airstrikes on southern Lebanon on Thursday, targeting what it described as Hezbollah military infrastructure in towns including Aita al-Jabal, Al-Tayyiba and Tayr Debba. The attacks came despite a cease-fire agreement in place since November 2024 and followed Israeli evacuation notices urging residents to vacate identified zones before strikes commenced. Lebanese officials condemned the strikes as violations of international law and a sign the cease-fire is increasingly fragile, while Israel says it will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its strength along the border.
read more

3. UN Security Council lifts sanctions on Syria’s President
The United Nations Security Council voted overwhelmingly to lift sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab ahead of his upcoming visit to the White House with Donald Trump. The U.S.-backed resolution, passed with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (China), also lifts related asset freezes and arms embargoes, though the move is largely symbolic as travel exemptions had already been regularly granted. U.S. officials say the decision signals a major diplomatic reset with Syria following over a decade of civil war and sanctions, although critics warn that serious questions remain about counter-terrorism commitments and human-rights accountability.
read more

4. Trump says Uzbekistan to invest more than $100B in US over next decade
Trump announced a new trade and economic agreement with Uzbekistan under which Tashkent intends to invest more than US $100 billion over the next ten years, including nearly US $35 billion in the first three years. The deal covers key American sectors such as aviation, infrastructure, automotive parts and critical minerals, aligning with Washington’s push to diversify supply chains and deepen ties with Central Asia. Observers caution that while the figure is ambitious, the specifics remain vague and follow-through will be essential to convert headline numbers into real economic flows.
read more

5. North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the sea off its East Coast
North Korea launched a suspected short-range ballistic missile on Friday toward the sea off its east coast, South Korean and Japanese defence authorities reported. The projectile travelled roughly 700 km from its launch site in the northwest, landing outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone and causing no reported damage. The launch underscores Pyongyang’s ongoing capability to advance its missile programme despite diplomatic overtures and builds further pressure on the U.S.–South Korea–Japan security triangle to maintain vigilance.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Myrnohrad Encircled? And more.

Myrnohrad
KalibratedMaps has been the first source to call that Myrnohrad is fully encircled. Russian forces have effectively encircled Myrnohrad, closing off the remaining routes of withdrawal.
Around 95% of Pokrovsk is now under Russian control, with Ukrainian troops possibly holding out only in the northernmost district of the city. The remaining 800-meter gap surrounding the pocket is not yet physically occupied but remains under constant Russian fire control. This makes any movement or evacuation by Ukrainian forces inside virtually impossible. This source also believes that at least a few hundred men are now trapped within the 40 square kilometre encirclement. 

If confirmed, this would mark the first major city encircled by Russian forces since the siege of Mariupol. Russia had largely avoided such operations since then, viewing them as costly and time-consuming, with Mariupol’s siege having stalled its early invasion efforts. As Sun Tzu warned, “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard ” — a principle Russia has largely followed until now.

That’s why analysts are surprised, questioning why Moscow chose to fully seal off Myrnohrad – if it has actually happened. The likely explanation is that Russian commanders believe only a small number of Ukrainian defenders remain, making the risk acceptable. With the main escape route already under complete fire control, closing the pocket was likely viewed as a tactical opportunity rather than a gamble. The move also renders Ukrainian defensive lines northeast of Pokrovsk redundant, as those positions were previously holding the exit open for retreating units.

Pokrovsk
Ukrainian sources describe the battle for Pokrovsk as highly dynamic and fluid, with frontlines shifting block by block. DeepState released footage showing Ukrainian soldiers raising a flag in central Pokrovsk, well beyond what most maps suggest as the active front. However, as we’ve seen throughout this phase of the war, maps rarely reflect the full reality — small, mobile teams are operating across the entire city, making it impossible to define a clear line of control. That said, recent drone footage shows Russian troops moving freely (not on combat alert) through several districts and even removing Ukrainian fortifications, indicating that Russia’s hold on most of Pokrovsk appears far more consolidated than Ukraine’s.

Vovchansk
Russian forces have intensified their offensive across five sectors of Vovchansk. In the west, progress remains slow under strong Ukrainian resistance, though Russian troops have reached Prylipka’s outskirts and advanced near Lyman and Synelnykove. To the east, they’ve made significant gains in southern Vovchansk, capturing most of the industrial zone and pushing into dense residential areas beyond the Vovcha River. Ukrainian troops have since withdrawn from northern Vovchansk, ending the 18-month defense. Meanwhile, east of Tykhe, Russian units are expanding a buffer zone through forests and securing new positions along the Vovchanski Khutory area. This is primarily coming from sources at AMK_Mapping.

Lyman
The last two weeks we saw Russian DRG units enter the outer suburbs of Lyman, this had surprised many of us, as they had practically bypassed the first major set of defences for the strategic town. There is a stronger Ukrainian drone presence here, especially on the southern forest belt that leads into Lyman. 

As of this week, the situation around Lyman has largely stabilized, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control over the dense forest zone. The area near the city has become increasingly lethal for Russian troops, as frequent FPV and “Baba Yaga” drone strikes make movement nearly impossible. Russian units typically advance in small groups of three to five, though many are detected — and in some cases, isolated soldiers have even surrendered to Ukrainian drones following repeated attacks, according to Playfra. As late autumn sets in, the terrain and drone dominance are making Russian advances progressively more difficult. Why? Well less foliage in winter means less hiding spots against Ukrainian drones. As we noted, the Russians used the forest to creep into the outer suburbs of Lyman before. 

Other Notable Mentions
Ukrainian forces conducted a precision strike on a Russian drone storage complex at Donetsk International Airport, reportedly targeting Geran-2 and FP-2 drones. The attack, carried out with HIMARS GMLRS rockets and coordinated by Ukraine’s Special Operations and Unmanned Systems Forces, triggered massive secondary explosions and a large fire across the site. According to Ukrainian sources, the facility had served as a major storage and launch base for Shahed-type drones, with as many as 1,200 drones believed to be present at the time. The full extent of the destruction remains unclear, though satellite imagery indicates significant damage to the area.

The Dnipropetrovsk front will require it’s own entire article.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

I bet the trading account isn’t going into retirement… 😂 

TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 7, 2000): Disputed U.S. presidential election

On this day in 2000, the U.S. presidential election ended in a statistical tie between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, only to be settled on December 12 by the U.S. Supreme Court after a bitter legal dispute.