THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s top five span high-stakes diplomacy and hard power on multiple fronts.

Washington and Tehran meet in Geneva for nuclear talks as Trump presses Kyiv ahead of parallel Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Moscow claims to have downed 151 Ukrainian drones overnight, Azerbaijan sentences Ruben Vardanyan to 20 years, and another 100 U.S. troops land in Nigeria for a training mission.

In today’s deep dive, we analyse last year's Nato wargame, just 10 Ukrainians were able to knock out 17 Nato vehicles in half a day using FPV drones - an army clearly not prepared for drone warfare.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. High-stakes talks between US and Iran set to be held in Geneva today
The United States and Iran are set to hold a high-stakes second round of indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva today, mediated by Oman and taking place against the backdrop of rising regional tensions. U.S. envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as Washington pushes to limit Tehran’s nuclear programme while Iran insists on focusing talks on sanctions relief and preserving some enrichment capability. Both sides are balancing diplomacy with military posturing, as the United States has bolstered forces in the Middle East and Iran conducts drills in the Strait of Hormuz.
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2. Trump ups pressure on Kyiv as Russia, Ukraine hold peace talks in Geneva
Trump has ramped up pressure on Kyiv to ‘act quickly’ ahead of a new round of US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva, urging Ukraine to engage swiftly as negotiations focus heavily on territorial issues. The Geneva discussions bring together delegations from Kyiv, Moscow and Washington and are expected to centre on contested regions such as Donbas and the future security arrangement in Ukraine, though deep divisions remain over core issues.
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3. Billionaire ex-Moscow banker Vardanyan gets 20 years in Azerbaijani prison
Armenian-born billionaire and former Nagorno-Karabakh official Ruben Vardanyan has been sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Baku military court, convicted on multiple charges including crimes against peace and humanity, war crimes, terrorism and financing terrorism under Azerbaijan’s criminal code. Vardanyan, who built his fortune as a Moscow investment banker before renouncing Russian citizenship and serving briefly as a top official in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, was detained in September 2023 while trying to flee to Armenia after Azerbaijan’s offensive.
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4. Russia claims to have shot down 151 Ukrainian drones overnight
Russian state media, citing the country’s defence ministry, said Moscow’s air defence systems shot down 151 Ukrainian drones overnight in what was described as another intense episode of aerial confrontation between the two sides. Russian officials did not immediately provide details on where the drones were intercepted or whether there were any casualties or damage, and Kyiv has not independently confirmed the figure.
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5. 100 more US troops arrive in Nigeria to help train its troops, Nigerian military says
About 100 U.S. military personnel and associated equipment have arrived in Nigeria to assist in training and supporting the country’s armed forces as they confront Islamist militants and other armed groups, the Nigerian military said in a statement. The deployment, made at the request of the Nigerian government, is focused on training, technical support and intelligence sharing, with U.S. troops operating under Nigerian command and not engaging in direct combat. This expansion of cooperation comes as Nigeria battles a range of extremist threats, including Boko Haram and Islamic State-linked factions.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

NATO Is Still Not Prepared For Modern Warfare

Wider Context
A British brigade was “destroyed” by Ukrainian forces during Hedgehog 2025, a major Nato wargame in Estonia involving more than 16,000 troops from 12 allied countries. The exercise simulated a battlefield saturated with drones, designed to replicate the high-intensity, tech-driven environment seen in Ukraine.

In one scenario, a battle group including a British brigade and an Estonian division was rapidly defeated. Participants said Nato units moved without concealment, parked vehicles openly and failed to adapt to drone-heavy conditions. Ukrainian teams, using the Delta battlefield management system, leveraged real-time intelligence, AI-assisted targeting and coordinated strike drones to devastating effect. A 10-person Ukrainian unit reportedly mock-destroyed 17 armoured vehicles and carried out 30 strikes in half a day, eliminating two battalions within 24 hours.

Estonian officials described the results as “horrible,” with one observer concluding bluntly: “We are f----d.”

The exercise underscored how drones now account for an estimated 70 per cent of casualties in Ukraine and have become central to modern land warfare. Britain has pledged £2 billion for drone investment, while European states accelerate unmanned systems production. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, with US-led peace talks scheduled in Geneva as pressure mounts for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

Full Article

Who is saying what?
A few years back, I remember reading several articles about the training Ukrainian units were receiving from NATO, and I couldn’t help but think that in some ways it should have been the other way around. Now, don’t take that too literally — but there is a kernel of truth there.

Since 2022, thousands of Ukrainian servicemen have trained in Poland and other European countries. While the programs cover tactics, coordination, tactical medicine, and Western equipment such as Bradleys and Krab howitzers, many Ukrainian soldiers say the instruction often reflects pre-drone NATO doctrine shaped by Iraq and Afghanistan. Frontline veterans argue that modern combat in Ukraine is dominated by constant drone surveillance and strike capability, creating deep “kill zones” far behind the line. Scenarios involving armoured assaults, bridge crossings, and rapid evacuation under the “golden hour” standard often fail to reflect realities where vehicles are quickly detected and targeted, and evacuations can take many hours. Some units even brought their own Mavic drones and demonstrated how decisive UAVs are, surprising NATO instructors during exercises.

Source for the information above

Training abroad remains valuable, especially for coordination, discipline, and operating Western systems, but there appears to be an institutional lag between battlefield reality and doctrinal adaptation.

An interesting case study of doctrine misaligned with operational reality is the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. The offensive leaned heavily on NATO manoeuvre concepts — which function optimally under conditions of air superiority, robust ISR, and effective suppression of enemy air defences. Ukraine did not possess those advantages. Without air dominance, NATO-style manoeuvre becomes significantly more costly and constrained. That does not make the doctrine wrong, it means the conditions required for its success were not present.

There is absolutely benefit in NATO training. But it is increasingly clear that NATO as an institution has struggled to fully internalise what drone-saturated warfare actually looks like. The recent mock-battle we described above reinforces that point.

Another thing I’ve mentioned before: Russian and Ukrainian troops will be extremely prized advisors in the troubling years ahead. They are a living fountain of knowledge when it comes to modern warfare. This is one reason reports suggest North Korea has sent thousands of personnel to gain operational exposure — not just for combat experience, but to study how contemporary war is fought. States will compete to bring Russian and Ukrainian advisors into their militaries, especially drone teams.

Lastly, we are several years into the largest conflict since WWII, and I am still seeing Challenger 2s without additional field adaptations, groupings of soldiers and vehicles operating casually in exercises — practices that would be punished immediately in Ukraine. Even in major drills, Western armour often lacks the improvised protective modifications that have become standard on the Ukrainian battlefield.

There is significant talk of investment in autonomous and drone systems — which is an obvious and positive step. But what about the micro-level tactical adaptation on the ground? The battlefield has changed. The question is whether institutions y

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

The Iranian’s have got Jokes!

TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 17, 1979): China invaded Vietnam, following a series of anti-Chinese, pro-Soviet manoeuvres by China's southern neighbour. The invasion was a response to Vietnam's ongoing efforts to bolster its ties with the Soviet Union following the Vietnam War, and it resulted in a month-long war.