Netanyahu's Secret UAE Visit What are The UAE's Geopolitical Goals?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines are dominated by diplomacy, deterrence, and disputed waters; with Trump and Xi attempting to steady US–China relations, BRICS nations debating the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and Greece and Turkey once again clashing over maritime claims in the eastern Mediterranean.

At the same time, Washington continues to walk a delicate line on Taiwan while Russia and Ukraine carried out one of the war’s largest prisoner exchanges, offering a rare moment of cooperation amid continued fighting and aerial attacks.

While everyone is focussed on Trumps trip to China, some big revelations are coming out of the Gulf allowing us to have a deeper insight on the region.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio says U.S. policy toward Taiwan unchanged
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said American policy toward Taiwan remains “unchanged” following high-level talks between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Rubio said Taiwan was raised during discussions, but stressed that Washington continues to oppose any unilateral attempt to alter the status quo by force, while maintaining its longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity. The comments came after Xi warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to “conflicts and confrontations,” underscoring how central the island remains to US–China relations.
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2. Trump and Xi agree Iran can’t have nuclear weapons
Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed during talks in Beijing that Iran “cannot have nuclear weapons,” with both leaders also calling for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open to global shipping. Trump described the discussions as “very productive,” while the White House said Washington is seeking greater Chinese support in pressuring Tehran to accept a broader ceasefire and nuclear framework agreement. The comments come as the United States and Iran remain locked in fragile negotiations, with tensions in the Gulf continuing despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
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3. Russia, Ukraine each swap 205 prisoners of war
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 205 prisoners of war on Friday as part of a broader agreement linked to a recent temporary ceasefire brokered with U.S. involvement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said many of the returned soldiers had been held in Russian captivity since 2022, particularly following the siege of Mariupol, while Russia said its released servicemen were taken to Belarus for medical and psychological support. The exchange is seen as an early phase of a larger planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, one of the few areas of ongoing cooperation between Moscow and Kyiv despite continued fighting and renewed aerial attacks across Ukraine.
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4. India calls for unimpeded maritime flows in Hormuz during BRICS meeting  
India called for “safe and unimpeded maritime flows” through the Strait of Hormuz during a BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, warning that disruptions in key shipping lanes pose a major risk to the global economy and energy markets. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the conflict in West Asia and growing threats to maritime traffic require urgent diplomatic engagement, as the BRICS bloc debates how to respond to the ongoing US–Iran crisis. The comments come as India faces mounting pressure to protect its energy imports and commercial shipping routes.
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5. Greece asks EU to step in over ‘unlawful fishing’ by Turkey in Mediterranean  
Greece has asked the European Union to intervene over what it describes as “unlawful fishing” by Turkish vessels in disputed areas of the eastern Mediterranean, escalating long-running maritime tensions between Athens and Ankara. Greek officials accused Turkey of violating EU maritime regulations and operating inside areas claimed by Greece under its exclusive economic zone, while Turkey rejected the allegations and argued the waters remain contested under international law. The dispute adds to broader tensions between the two NATO members over maritime boundaries, energy exploration, and territorial rights in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
I’m not sure if you guys have been following much of what’s been happening in the Gulf, while the whole China summit is happening – but it’s worth looking into. A series of disclosures over the past 48 hours has pulled back the curtain on how the UAE chose to fight the Iran war, and how isolated it became in doing so.

It is now confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a covert visit to the UAE at the height of Operation Roaring Lion, meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed in Al Ain, near the Omani border. The Mossad director visited twice to coordinate the war effort, and the Shin Bet chief also made the trip. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir also secretly visited Abu Dhabi, accompanied by a U.S. delegation, to strengthen cooperation on both defensive and offensive planning against Iran. The UAE's Foreign Ministry has denied all of it, calling the claims entirely unfounded, though Netanyahu's own former spokesperson confirmed the visit in detail, saying Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed personally drove the Israeli prime minister from the plane to the palace. 

The deeper story is what the UAE did with that partnership. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed contacted other Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, making the case for a coordinated offensive against Iran. They refused, which I would have suspected given the recent geopolitical rip between the Saudis and the UAE. Abu Dhabi went ahead anyway. There were hints of this, several people with a good eye noticed Emirati jets flying with no markings – you would only do this with the intention of flying somewhere without being identified. 

The UAE carried out strikes on Iran including an attack on a refinery on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, making it the only Arab state to join the U.S. and Israel in offensive military action during the war. Washington received Abu Dhabi's participation positively, particularly given that every other Gulf state had declined. 

The fallout within the Gulf is real. The UAE's decision to go it alone may help explain its decision last month to exit OPEC. The bloc is fracturing along the lines of who was willing to fight and who was not.Iran has responded by designating the UAE a "hostile base," warning of stronger strikes if U.S. and Israeli attacks resume, and declaring the Emirati port of Fujairah to fall within Iranian maritime jurisdiction. The Abraham Accords era of quiet normalisation has effectively ended. What has replaced it is something far more consequential, and far more dangerous.

If I was to compare the UAE to another state — it would seem they are trying to emulate Venice or Athens, a relatively small power in the geographical sense but large in soft power. The problem is whether they are punching above their own weight.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 15, 1885): Louis Riel surrendered after leading two rebellions against the Canadian government in response to its efforts to assume the territorial rights of the Hudson's Bay Company in northwestern Canada.