THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines span from political upheavals in Africa to a major milestone in space.

SpaceX has taken another step toward reusable deep-space travel, while Cameroon and Madagascar face uncertain leadership transitions. In Asia, Washington and Beijing are edging closer to a high-stakes meeting, and Venezuela’s latest diplomatic reshuffle has raised fresh eyebrows in Europe.

In today’s deep dive, we’re looking at what may be the final chapters for the Battle of Kupiansk.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. SpaceX launches 11th test flight of its mega Starship rocket
SpaceX successfully launched its 11th test flight of the Starship rocket from its Starbase site in Texas, testing its upper stage’s separation and trajectory manoeuvres across the globe. The Super Heavy booster made a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, while the spacecraft descended toward a splashdown zone in the Indian Ocean. During the mission, SpaceX also released eight mock Starlink satellites and tested heat shield tiles to validate components for future reusable flights.
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2. Cameroon’s Issa Tchiroma Bakary claims presidential election victory
Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary has claimed victory in Cameroon’s October 12 presidential election, urging longtime incumbent President Paul Biya to concede and “honour the truth of the ballot box.” He described the people’s will as clear and pledged to publish regional vote counts drawn from ballots posted at polling stations. The government has not officially acknowledged his claim, and its territorial administration minister warned that any premature announcement of results would be considered “high treason.”
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3. Madagascar’s President flees country on French plane amid student protests
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina says he fled the country after a military unit joined large Gen Z-led protests and declared refusal to obey government orders. He stopped short of resigning, denouncing what he called an “illegal power grab” and insisting he’s still committed to governing from a safe location. Meanwhile, the capital is increasingly controlled by forces aligned with the uprising, and his whereabouts remain unclear.
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4. Trump on track to meet Xi in South Korea later this month
Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, despite recent trade tensions. The meeting is expected to occur on the sidelines of the APEC summit and follows weeks of escalating rhetoric over China’s new export controls on rare earth elements and Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs. Bessent described the situation as de-escalating, citing “substantial communication” between both sides over the weekend.
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5. Venezuela announces closure of Norway, Australia embassies
Venezuela’s government announced it will close its embassies in Norway and Australia as part of what it calls a “strategic re-assignment of resources,” while opening new embassies in Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe. The closures, Caracas says, are being offset by alternate diplomatic arrangements for consular services for Venezuelans in the affected countries. The move comes amid rising tensions with the U.S. and Norway, and closely follows the awarding of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to opposition leader María Corina Machado.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

KUPIANSK SITUATION DESCRIBED AS “CHAOS” BY UKRAINIAN SOURCES

Russian forces have reportedly made significant progress, pushing deep into the central and south-western suburbs of Kupiansk. But how much of that is true depends on who you believe and we’ll get into that shortly. What both sides do agree on, however, is that Ukraine was clearly unprepared. City defences were either not built or simply not adequate. That’s both surprising and concerning, given that Russian forces have been clawing their way towards Kupiansk since 2023. 

Horrific Close-Quarters Warfare
Pro-Ukrainian accounts have labelled much of the city a grey zone, largely because the fighting there is being described as extremely unusual. Ukrainian sources report that Russian soldiers are dressing as civilians, moving through the city, and when they come across the bodies of either Ukrainian or Russian troops, they take their equipment and begin hunting. But what exactly are they hunting for? Basements in buildings with loud, functioning generators — often a sign that Ukrainian squads are using them as cover or forward bases. Russians set up ambushes for Ukrainians, and Ukrainians do the same in return. It’s brutal, close-quarters fighting.

As of the past 24–48 hours, both DeepState and ISW have labelled most of the city as unconfirmed or grey. In a sense, this reflects a broader trend we’ve discussed before that the nature of the conflict increasingly produces grey zones as small, mobile teams operate to avoid detection by drones. But it also tells us where Russian units are or have been, and it is not a great look. Russian commentators, however, claim that these reports of soldiers dressing as civilians are pure propaganda aimed at portraying Russia negatively,  arguing that no civilians would realistically remain in an active combat zone. There may be some truth to that, but it’s also worth remembering that civilians often do stay behind during battles, whether out of necessity or defiance.

Ukraine Falls Back
Over the past five days, Ukrainian forces have conducted a tactical withdrawal from the northern bank of the Oskil River near Kupiansk, abandoning positions around the Pishchane–Synkivka sector. Russian units of the Western Group of Forces have continued systematic clearing operations north of the river, consolidating control over the forests and northern outskirts of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. According to both sides, Ukrainian troops have now pulled back to the south-eastern section bordering the Oskil River, with some units reportedly crossing to the eastern bank. The Russian push down the Oskil and towards the central suburbs was mirrored by a flanking manoeuvre on Ukraine’s western approaches, creating a salient that has since been mostly evacuated. 

Ukraine Attacks The Rear
However, Ukrainian counteractions south of Tyshchenkivka in the past 48 hours have partially stabilised the front, allowing Kyiv’s forces to recover several tactical positions and delay further Russian penetration along the Kupiansk–Petropavlivka axis. We have discussed this area before as a weak point of the Russians and this is why Ukraine is aiming to exploit it. There have been questions regarding when or if Russia will try and link up its Kharkiv enclave with the Kupiansk sector but as OSINT account Vitaly has shown – much of the area between the two points is useless to both Ukraine and Russia. Extremely thick woodland with a vast amount of ravines. There is a high probability of DRG’s operating there, but logistics are a nightmare for any non-recon unit. 

Oskil River Crossing
Based on recent Russian drone footage and the proximity of Russian lines, both known crossings (the railway and secondary bridge) are under Russian fire control. One has to then wonder how long the eastern bank will last, there have been gradual Russian advances here as ukrainian units push back. Setting up custom crossing points with pontoon bridges will be difficult with Russian air and drone power in the region. 

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
Sources not mentioned in images / text but used: @Playfra on X, AMK_Mapping, Suriyak, Deepstate,

TWEET OF THE DAY

LOL, deserves an explanation…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 14, 1066): Battle of Hastings

At the Battle of Hastings, fought this day in 1066, King Harold II of England was defeated by the invading army of William, duke of Normandy, in the Norman Conquest, establishing Normans as rulers of England.