THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From a deadly maritime clash off Cuba to high-stakes nuclear diplomacy in Geneva, today’s headlines span confrontation and cautious negotiation.

We’re also tracking a rare prisoner swap in southern Syria, a $35 billion defence pact between South Korea and the United Arab Emirates, and fresh political fire in Washington after Donald Trump clashed with lawmakers Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.

In today’s deep dive, we take a look at the history of former western pilots allegedly training Chinese pilots in what appears to be a coordinated effort - from the UK, to Australia and the USA.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Cuba says it killed 4 people aboard Florida-registered speedboat that opened fire
Cuban authorities reported that their soldiers killed four people and wounded six others after a Florida-registered speedboat entered Cuban territorial waters near Cayo Falcones and opened fire on them, injuring a Cuban patrol commander, the government said. Cuba’s Interior Ministry said the confrontation occurred about 1 mile off the north coast and that the vessel’s occupants fired first, though it did not provide details on the nationalities of those aboard or their intentions.
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2. US-Iran nuclear talks to kick off in Geneva amid tensions
The United States and Iran have kicked off a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday as both sides seek to break a long-running stalemate over Tehran’s nuclear programme amid escalating regional tensions and a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Iran’s lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Geneva with his delegation to meet U.S. envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with mediators from Oman facilitating the discussions.
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3. Syria, Druze factions hold Sweida prisoner swap
The Syrian government and Druze factions in the mainly Druze-populated Sweida region carried out their first prisoner exchange since deadly clashes broken out there last summer, with Damascus releasing 61 imprisoned Druze fighters and supporters from Adra Central Prison. In return, the Druze National Guard Forces freed 25 members of Syrian government forces, marking a rare, organized step towards reducing tensions after months of sectarian violence. The swap follows U.S.-mediated negotiations aimed at easing conflict between Damascus and local Druze leaders, and comes amid ongoing disputes over security and autonomy in southern Syria.
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4. South Korea, UAE sign MoU on $35 billion defence cooperation
South Korea and the United Arab Emirates have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on defence cooperation valued at over $35 billion, a major commitment to deepen military and strategic ties between Seoul and Abu Dhabi. The agreement covers collaboration across anti-air defence, air force and naval projects as part of a broader expansion of bilateral cooperation. The pact forms part of a wider push by both governments to pursue more than $65 billion in joint economic and defence initiatives
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5. Trump says Muslim congresswomen should be removed from US over speech clash
Trump said on Wednesday that two Muslim Democratic lawmakers, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, should be “institutionalized” and sent back “from where they came” after they loudly criticised him during his State of the Union address. Both Omar and Tlaib, who are U.S. citizens, had shouted “you’re killing Americans” at Trump as he defended his immigration policies, prompting his Truth Social post calling them “lunatics” and suggesting they be removed from the country.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

From ‘Top Gun’ To Top Price For Hire

From Top Gun 'Elite’ To Arrest
Former U.S. Air Force Major Gerald Eddie Brown Jr., known by the call sign “Runner,” was arrested in Indiana and charged with providing defense services to Chinese military pilots without authorization, in violation of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA). Prosecutors allege that since August 2023, Brown conspired to train pilots from the People's Liberation Army Air Force without the required State Department license under ITAR rules. A former F-35 and A-10 instructor with over 24 years of service, Brown allegedly traveled to China in December 2023 and conducted combat aviation instruction. US officials described the case as a serious national security breach.

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Up To 30 UK former Pilots Involved In Allegedly Training Chinese Pilots
In October 2022, the UK government revealed that up to 30 former British military pilots had been recruited to train members of China’s People's Liberation Army. The pilots, many with experience flying Typhoons, Tornados, Harriers and Jaguars, were reportedly offered lucrative packages worth up to £237,911 to pass on their operational knowledge.

Western officials said the effort was designed to help China better understand Western air combat tactics, pilot training methods and aircraft capabilities — insights that could prove critical in a future conflict scenario, including over Taiwan. Recruitment was said to be conducted through intermediary headhunters, with a South Africa-based flying academy reportedly involved.

The UK first became aware of cases in 2019, but activity slowed during COVID travel restrictions before ramping up again. While no evidence suggests breaches of the Official Secrets Act or criminal wrongdoing, the Ministry of Defence issued an intelligence alert to deter participation. Ministers signalled legal reforms may be needed to prevent former personnel from transferring sensitive military expertise to foreign powers that challenge UK interests.

Former US Marine Living In Australia In Political Limbo As Extradition Case Ongoing - 4 Years Later
Former US Marine pilot Daniel Edmund Duggan has appeared in the Federal Court in Canberra as he fights extradition to the United States over allegations he illegally trained Chinese military pilots in South Africa in 2012. Arrested in Australia in 2022 at the request of US authorities, Duggan faces accusations of breaching American arms trafficking laws. He has remained in custody while challenging the decision.

Duggan’s legal team argues that the equivalent Australian offence was not in force at the time of the alleged conduct, rendering the extradition decision invalid. They also contend it is extraordinary to extradite an Australian citizen for alleged breaches of US law tied to activities in South Africa. Government lawyers maintain Australia’s role is limited to assessing whether the conduct meets extradition treaty requirements, leaving guilt or innocence to US courts. The Federal Court has reserved its decision.

South Africa - The Conduit
The Test Flying Academy of South Africa (TFASA/TSFSA) sits at the centre of allegations that Western ex-military pilots helped train Chinese personnel linked to the People's Liberation Army. Western governments argue the academy functioned as a conduit, allowing retired UK and allied pilots to transfer advanced aviation knowledge to Chinese military aviators under the guise of civilian test-flying instruction.

According to reporting, instructors taught subjects such as flight test methodology, aircraft handling, tactical flying concepts, and performance analysis — areas that indirectly improve combat effectiveness. Officials stress that while instructors may not have handed over classified material, the concern lies in transferring “operational insight” into how Western pilots think, train, and fight.

TFASA has denied wrongdoing, stating it provides “purely civilian flight test training” and does not deliver front-line combat tactics or classified data. Some instructors reportedly described Chinese trainees as “professional” and “very capable students.” Critics argue that even non-classified tactical frameworks can enhance China’s ability to counter Western air forces in future conflict scenarios.

Since 2023, the fallout surrounding the Test Flying Academy of South Africa has intensified significantly. In June 2023, the US Department of Commerce placed the academy on its Entity List, designating it as acting contrary to US national security interests due to its alleged role in training Chinese military personnel. Washington later expanded restrictions to include associated aviation firms across South Africa, Hong Kong and the UK, tightening export controls and limiting access to US-origin technology. In early 2026, the US Justice Department filed a forfeiture complaint after intercepting mission crew trainers allegedly destined for the People's Liberation Army, claiming the systems incorporated US technology and were intended to enhance PLA airborne warning and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. TFASA has denied wrongdoing, maintaining it provides civilian flight test instruction only. Meanwhile, Five Eyes governments have issued renewed warnings to former military personnel, signalling growing concern over the strategic transfer of Western aviation expertise to China.

Sources
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 26, 1815): Napoleon escapes exile

On this day in 1815, Napoleon, who had been banished to the island of Elba by a coalition of European powers the previous year, escaped exile and attempted to make a comeback. He sailed to France and headed to Paris; French troops sent to stop him joined his forces. However, they were no match for the might of the troops commanded by the duke of Wellington (consisting of British, Dutch, Belgian, and German units). Thus ensued the military campaign known as the Hundred Days, during which Napoleon attempted to rule France and command its army once more. He was, however, no match for the duke of Ellington's troops, and his leadership ended with his defeat at the Battle of Waterloo and banishment to the island of St. Helena.