"War With Iran To Restart Soon" Sources Say As Iran Sends New Proposal

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A violent attack in London has triggered a terrorism investigation, while tensions around Gaza continue to spill into international waters after a high-profile flotilla interception.

There’s a rare thaw in US–Venezuela relations with flights resuming, even as religious tensions rise in Jerusalem and diplomatic friction builds between Azerbaijan and the EU. Meanwhile, voters in Antigua and Barbuda are set to deliver a decisive political outcome.

In today’s deep dive, we focus on the Middle East as Iran sends a new proposal to Pakistan…But whispers are rising over a potential restart in the war.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Nun assaulted in Jerusalem as concern grows over attacks on Christians
A French nun was assaulted in Jerusalem’s Old City, with reports stating she was pushed to the ground and repeatedly kicked, leaving her with head injuries. Israeli police arrested a suspect shortly after the incident and said he is being investigated on suspicion of a racially motivated attack. The assault has drawn condemnation from religious and academic groups, who warn it reflects a broader rise in attacks and hostility toward Christian communities in Jerusalem.
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2. Direct flights between US and Venezuela resume after 7 year hiatus
Direct commercial flights between the United States and Venezuela have resumed for the first time in seven years, with an inaugural American Airlines flight travelling from Miami to Caracas. The restart follows the lifting of a 2019 U.S. flight ban and is expected to initially include daily services, reconnecting travel, business and family links between the two countries. Officials on both sides described the move as a step toward rebuilding economic and diplomatic ties, though broader political uncertainties between Washington and Caracas remain.
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3. Gaza aid flotilla activists taken to Crete after Israeli interception
More than 100 activists from a Gaza-bound aid flotilla were taken to the Greek island of Crete after Israeli naval forces intercepted their vessels in international waters near Greece. The activists were part of the Global Sumud flotilla, which had set sail from Barcelona in an attempt to deliver humanitarian aid and challenge Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Israeli authorities transferred around 168 crew members to Greek officials, while some activists remained in Israeli custody, with the incident drawing international criticism and adding to tensions around access to Gaza.
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4. Antigua and Barbuda prime minister set to win fourth term in election  
Antigua and Barbuda’s Prime Minister Gaston Browne is set to secure a fourth term in office after his Labour Party won a decisive victory in a snap general election. Preliminary results show the ruling party winning around 15 of the 17 parliamentary seats, leaving the opposition with minimal representation. The vote was called early amid international pressures, including U.S. visa restrictions, with Browne campaigning on economic stability and investment-led growth.
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5. Azerbaijan summons EU envoy in row over treatment of Karabakh Armenians
Azerbaijan has summoned the European Union’s ambassador in Baku in protest over a European Parliament resolution criticising its treatment of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. The resolution condemned what it described as the “unjust detention” of Armenian prisoners and called for their release, while also urging protection of cultural and human rights in the region. Azerbaijan rejected the claims as “biased,” insisting detainees are accused of serious crimes and warning that the dispute could further strain relations with the EU amid ongoing tensions following its 2023 takeover of the region.
read more

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CONFLICT TRACKER

Sahel Region

Quick note on the map first. The gray zones, both solid and overlapping, show JNIM firm control versus areas of general JNIM presence. It looks messy because the situation is messy. These guys don't hold territory like a conventional army. They hit, push, and pull back. Lines on a map are always a simplification.

Now onto the last 72 hours, because things have gotten worse for Bamako. Bourem is fully in JNIM/FLA hands. The coalition is now moving on the outskirts of Gao. FAMa and the Russians are sitting at the base and airport, doing occasional patrols through the city. They're not really projecting power at this point, just holding their positions.

Menaka and Anefif are both cut off. Menaka is watching ISSP, Anefif is watching FLA/JNIM. Neither situation looks good. The coalition has also connected a continuous zone running from Kidal all the way to Razalma, which is a significant consolidation of territory. Worth noting though: the Tuaregs are keeping their operations north of the Niger River. Everything south of it is JNIM's business. There are no coalition troops on the southern bank opposite Bourem or Gao, with one exception.

Gourma Rharous fell yesterday after a joint Tuareg and jihadist attack. African Corps and FAMa pulled back to Timbuktu. Which is now the next major target. Timbuktu is getting progressively more isolated. The western supply route toward Diabaly is going to get worse following reports of a possible pullout from Léré and Soumpi. Same story as Aguelhok, where preparations for withdrawal are already underway.

Iran-USA

Iran has sent back a response to the latest US amendments on the draft peace deal, delivered through Pakistani mediators on Thursday. The fact that a response came at all is being read as a sign that the diplomatic track is not completely dead, even if progress remains slow.

The backstory on the amendments is straightforward. Last weekend Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, with nuclear talks pushed to a later date. Witkoff came back on Monday with a list of changes that essentially reinserted the nuclear question into the draft text. One of the key additions was a demand that Iran commit to not moving any enriched uranium out of its bombed nuclear facilities, and not restarting any activity at those sites, for as long as negotiations are ongoing.

Iran has now responded to that. What exactly is in the response has not been reported, but the exchange itself keeps the process moving.

On Thursday afternoon Trump spent around 45 minutes in the Situation Room with Vance, Rubio, Hegseth, Ratcliffe and Witkoff. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine briefed the group on updated plans for possible military action against Iran. So the diplomatic and military tracks are both active at the same time.

Trump told reporters on Thursday that very few people know the details of the talks, and that Iran wants a deal badly. Tehran's position is the opposite, that it is Trump who is under pressure to close something. Both sides are publicly claiming the other is more desperate, which is a fairly standard negotiating posture at this stage.

However, in the last few weeks there has been a significant uptick in supplies being sent to the Middle East — especially in the 48 hours in particular. The movements are eerily similar to the weekend of the initial outbreak of the conflict. For example, we’re seeing tarmacs full of oil refuelling tankers.

The news cycle is also beginning to get “sources” suggesting the war will resume shortly, from the ABC to Fox News. Prediction markets are also reacting with some markets down over 10% in response to growing whispers about a renewal of the conflict.

Sources
Available upon request

Source for Iran
Source for Mali

TWEET OF THE DAY

Interesting take, lol.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 1, 2004): The European Union was enlarged to include the new member states of Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.