THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Election night drama dominates today’s headlines, with decisive wins in Japan, Thailand and Portugal reshaping political landscapes from Asia to Europe.

We’re also following a highly charged diplomatic visit to Australia by Israel’s president, alongside a landmark Hong Kong ruling that has reignited global debate over press freedom and the rule of law.

In today’s deep dive, we turn to the Huliaipole-Pokrovsk’e front as Ukraine launched a new coordinated winter offensive to pushback Russian forces.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Japan’s firebrand Prime Minister pulls off victory in snap election
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap lower house election, with her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner projected to win a supermajority well above the 233 seats needed for a majority, giving her a commanding mandate in the 465-seat parliament. The result reflects strong voter support for Takaichi’s conservative platform, which includes fiscal stimulus measures, national defence enhancements and a tougher stance on regional security issues.
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2. Thai PM claims election victory with conservatives well ahead of rivals
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul declared victory in Thailand’s general election on Sunday, with his conservative Bhumjaithai Party winning a commanding lead in parliamentary seats and outpacing its main rivals by a wide margin, according to unofficial results. Preliminary counts showed Bhumjaithai securing roughly 190-plus of the 500 lower house seats, far ahead of the reformist People’s Party and the populist Pheu Thai Party, positioning Anutin to lead the next government and start coalition talks.
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3. Israeli President lays wreath at Bondi at start of controversial visit to Australia
Israeli President Isaac Herzog began a state visit to Australia by laying a wreath at the Bondi Beach memorial in Sydney, honouring the 15 people killed in a December antisemitic terror attack at a Hanukkah celebration and placing stones from Jerusalem as a mark of respect. Herzog emphasised solidarity with the Australian Jewish community and condemned hatred and violence, saying people of all faiths would “overcome this evil” while acknowledging a global rise in antisemitism. The visit, invited by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to support victims and strengthen ties, has been met with tight security and planned protests by pro-Palestinian groups, reflecting broader controversy over Israel’s policies and regional tensions.
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4. Portugal elects socialist Party’s Seguro as President in landslide
Portugal has elected Socialist Party candidate António José Seguro as president in a landslide runoff victory, with exit polls and near-complete results showing he won about 66 % of the vote against far-right rival André Ventura’s roughly 34%. The result makes Seguro the first Socialist head of state in two decades, succeeding conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and reflecting broad support for his moderate platform amid concerns about populist politics.
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5. Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in jail after landmark Hong Kong trial
Prominent Hong Kong media tycoon and pro-democracy figure Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison on Monday after being convicted under the city’s national security law on charges including conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publishing seditious materials. The sentencing stems from a trial that found Lai played a central role in efforts that authorities said endangered national security, and he was spared a potential life term by a panel of government-vetted judges.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

New Ukrainian Offensive on Huliaipole-Pokrovsk’e Front

Wider Context
Various reports indicate Ukraine has launched a large-scale counterattack on the Pokrovske–Huliaipole front, with mechanised assaults reported across multiple axes. This analysis focuses on the objectives and expectations behind the operation.

The front has been active since mid-2025 but was poorly defended and largely neglected by Ukrainian high command, allowing Russian units to penetrate rapidly. This raised the risk that Orikhiv—and potentially Zaporizhzhia itself—could come under pressure by late 2026. Ukraine’s response was initially ad hoc, redeploying elements from multiple brigades to reinforce Territorial Defence and regular units. These mixed formations suffered from poor cohesion and communication, degrading combat effectiveness.

By December, Russian forces had seized the initiative and captured Huliaipole, reportedly catching local commanders off guard as headquarters were abandoned hastily. By January, Russian units had established themselves west of the Haichur River, capturing Dobropillya, Ternuvate, and Prydorozhnje—positions that threatened further advances toward Orikhiv and Zaporizhzhia.

Several weeks ago, Ukrainian armoured columns pushed through Nove Zaporizhzhia, creating a salient in Russian lines. This was strange to me at the time — Ukraine wasting armour on an isolated push? At the time, this appeared risky given persistent drone surveillance, now it may seem this thrust was preparatory rather than isolated.

The Counteroffensive
Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensive operations in the Huliaipole and Pokrovske directions beginning February 5, reportedly across at least nine axes. Attacks from multiple settlements cleared Ternuvate and Prydorozhnje, with Ukrainian units entering Dobropillya and Pryluky. Unconfirmed reports suggest breakthroughs toward Berestove and Kalynivske, though Russian sources dispute these claims.

Russian analyst Yuriy Podolyaka says the Zaporizhzhia front has sharply escalated, describing the attacks as planned rather than spontaneous. Kyiv reportedly committed seven assault regiments and three assault brigades, redeployed from the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk axes, aiming to strike the rear of Russia’s Vostok grouping and disrupt logistics tied to Pokrovske and Velyka Mykhailivka.

Ukrainian forces achieved localized gains near Novomykhailivka, pushing Russian positions around Orestopil and Sosnivka. Crucially, Ukraine secured Ternuvate, the key foothold west of the Haichur. Additional progress has been alleged on the northern Pokrovske axis, though confirmation remains limited.

Russian Consolidation
However, reporting from Suriyak and other pro-Russian analysts suggests Russian forces have not only consolidated west of Huliaipole but expanded. Russian units reportedly took extensive positions south of the city and along the railway line, launched a major assault on Zaliznychne from the north and east, and captured new trench systems near Olenokostiantynivka, shifting fighting westward along the rail corridor.

Given the limited reporting from pro-Ukrainian channels, this consolidation may be understated, with most confirmed Ukrainian gains concentrated around Ternuvate and the northern sector.

No Starlink?
Multiple sources suggest Ukraine is exploiting poor weather conditions and the loss of Starlink access for Russian forces as key enablers of the counterattack. Dense fog, cloud cover, and high winds sharply reduce drone effectiveness—particularly for defenders reliant on persistent aerial surveillance to target slow-moving mechanised units. Similar conditions were previously exploited by Russian forces north of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

The Starlink angle is particularly notable. Ukrainian officials and international partners had long urged Elon Musk to restrict Russian access, which occurred on February 4. Russian forces had relied on smuggled Starlink terminals after failing to achieve air superiority, using them to stream drone feeds and coordinate strikes deep behind Ukrainian lines.

Starlink’s effectiveness lies in its low-Earth-orbit constellation, offering high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity that is difficult to jam and independent of ground infrastructure—ideal for drone-centric warfare. The cutoff disrupts Russian drone operations and command-and-control, while Ukraine preserves access through device registration rather than a blanket shutdown.

This raises two key questions. First, if Starlink was so critical, why did Russia rely so heavily on such a vulnerable, externally controlled system? Second, if its loss is as consequential as claimed, this may indicate a high concentration of Russian DRG and forward units on the frontline. Starlink would prove useful for DRG units needing to communicate with less chance of jamming — this might suggest less consolidation and greater exposure than previously assessed.

Also consider we may see gaps appear in Kupiansk and Pokrovsk, which Ukrainian high command may see as stabilised enough to rotate troops.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 9, 1757): The Treaty of Alinagar placed what is today Kolkata under British control and served as a prelude to the seizure of Bengal. Robert Clive had seized the city in January from the ruler of Bengal, Siraj al-Dawlah.