THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From air strikes over Kabul to rising cross-border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, today’s headlines open with a sharp escalation in South Asia.

Diplomacy, meanwhile, inches forward as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva end with “significant progress” but no deal, while in Washington Hillary Clinton faces questions from lawmakers over the Epstein scandal. In Britain, Keir Starmer is grappling with a shock by-election loss to the Greens, and in the South China Sea the Philippines, Japan and United States stage joint military drills.

In today’s deep dive, we explore the context behind the latest round of conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with colonial artificial borders playing a role (as they usually do).

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Air strikes hit Afghan capital of Kabul, hours after Taliban attacks Pakistan
Pakistani warplanes carried out air strikes on Kabul early on Friday, in a significant escalation of violence between the neighbouring countries, according to statements from Afghan authorities and independent reports. The strikes came hours after Afghan Taliban forces launched cross-border attacks on Pakistani military positions in the latest flare-up of hostilities along the long Durand Line border, undermining a fragile ceasefire and prompting Islamabad to describe the situation as an “open war.” While Afghan officials reported explosions over the capital and widespread bombardment targeting what Pakistan says were Taliban military installations.
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2. Oman says US-Iran talks end with ‘significant progress’ but no deal reached
The United States and Iran wrapped up a third round of indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, with Oman’s foreign minister saying both sides had made “significant progress” but did not reach a final agreement to resolve their longstanding dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Mediator Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi said further consultations in capitals would be followed by technical-level talks next week in Vienna, even as deep disagreements remain on key issues like enrichment and sanctions. While both sides emphasised advances in some areas, the lack of a breakthrough leaves diplomatic efforts ongoing.
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3. Hilary Clinton tells house panel she ‘had no idea’ of Epstein’s crimes
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified behind closed doors on Thursday before the Republican-led House Oversight Committee investigating disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, stating she had no knowledge of Epstein’s or his associate Ghislaine Maxwell’s criminal activities and did not recall ever meeting Epstein, flying on his plane, or visiting his properties. Clinton told lawmakers she “had no idea” about their crimes and has “nothing to add” that would assist the inquiry, while also criticising elements of the committee’s approach as partisan and calling for broader questions under oath.
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4. Embarrassing byelection defeat for Keir Starmer as Greens seize labour stronghold
In a major political upset in Gorton and Denton on February 26, the Green Party won a by-election previously considered a safe Labour Party seat, with candidate Hannah Spencer securing a decisive majority and pushing Labour into third place behind Reform UK. The result marks the Greens’ first parliamentary by-election victory in northern England and halved Labour’s vote share from the 2024 general election, reflecting waning support for Keir Starmer’s leadership in the area. The shock defeat has intensified scrutiny of Labour’s strategy and could have broader implications ahead of May local elections.
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5. Philippines, Japan, US hold joint military drills in South China Sea
The Philippines, Japan and United States concluded joint military drills in the South China Sea this week, part of a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) held from Feb. 20-26 aimed at enhancing interoperability, maritime security and Maritime Domain Awareness among the three allies. The exercises, conducted within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, saw the deployment of Philippine vessels and aircraft alongside a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3 Orion and the U.S. USS Dewey destroyer and P-8A Poseidon aircraft, with activities ranging from replenishment at sea to joint air patrols and communication drills.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

“Open War" On Afghan-Pakistan Border

Wider Context
This is not the first time that tensions have flared between two historically regional partners. Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan first flared sharply in October 2025 and have only been simmering since, not disappearing. 

For context, the October clashes followed Taliban “retaliatory” assaults on Pakistani border posts after alleged Pakistani air strikes on Kabul-linked targets. Islamabad responded with cross-border fire, drone interceptions and renewed accusations that the Taliban were sheltering the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). At the core remains the unresolved Durand Line dispute and the Taliban’s ideological reluctance to decisively suppress a fellow Pashtun militant movement. The Durand line was established in 1893 as an international border for the British Indian Empire and the Emirate of Afghanistan. The border runs through an extremely complex mix of cultural and ethnic lines, which is where much of this conflict stems from. 

Who are the TTP?
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, formed in 2007 from militant factions opposing Pakistani operations against al-Qaeda, is estimated to have 30,000–50,000 fighters. Tensions stem partly from the Taliban’s rejection of the British-drawn Durand Line and their Pashtun nationalist outlook. Kabul’s reluctance to suppress the TTP, despite Pakistani pressure, reflects ideological affinity and domestic considerations, worsening ties as TTP attacks inside Pakistan have surged since 2021. The group is not politically and ideologically united, with different groups operating under the same banner. The TPP has been a thorn in the side for Pakistan for close to a decade now with repeated terrorist attacks, of which the TPP has taken credit for some of Pakistan’s deadliest terrorist attacks. 

October-February
Between October 2025 and February 2026, the conflict shifted from open clashes to sustained low-intensity instability. Pakistan intensified deportations of Afghan refugees, increased border fortifications and conducted targeted operations against suspected TTP networks. Meanwhile, TTP attacks inside Pakistan continued at an elevated tempo, reinforcing Islamabad’s narrative that Kabul is either unwilling or unable to act. Just this month we have seen kamikaze styled drone attacks on security outposts and a SVBIED that killed 11 Pakistani servicemen and one child. 

The Taliban, for their part, balanced nationalist rhetoric with caution. They avoided full-scale confrontation but allowed ambiguity to persist regarding TTP safe havens — preserving domestic credibility among Pashtun constituencies while avoiding outright war. This unresolved friction now feeds into wider regional volatility. Pakistan’s western frontier remains unstable just as tensions with India have resurfaced along the Line of Control. For Islamabad, managing simultaneous pressure from Kabul-linked militants and renewed hostility with New Delhi stretches military bandwidth and political capital.

The Latest Conflict
Clashes erupted late on 26 February after Taliban forces launched coordinated attacks along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border, targeting multiple areas across Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, Khost, Paktia and Paktika. Pakistan accused the Taliban of opening unprovoked fire in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and responded with what it described as an “immediate and effective” counterstrike, followed by overnight bombing raids on targets in Kabul and border provinces.

Fighting was also reported near the strategic Torkham crossing. The Taliban claimed it carried out retaliatory strikes on Pakistani military positions, including drone attacks on sites in Nowshehra, Abbottabad and Swabi. Pakistan said the drones were intercepted and destroyed, calling the attacks unprecedented.

Both sides claim heavy casualties, though figures remain unverified. Islamabad has spoken of “open war”, while the Taliban says it will retaliate but does not seek escalation. The UN has urged restraint, with Iran offering mediation and China and Saudi Arabia calling for de-escalation.

The timing is notable. Just days before this escalation, Modi and Netanyahu met during a historic visit to Israel, while U.S.–Iran tensions continue to simmer near boiling point. For some actors, there may not have been a more opportune moment for instability to resurface along the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier; for others, the timing is far less convenient. Against this backdrop, the Taliban have stated they would support Iran in any conflict with the United States. In practical terms, that support would likely be symbolic rather than material. However, the declaration is strategically significant. Even rhetorical alignment adds another layer to an already tense regional environment, linking what might appear to be a localised border clash to the wider geopolitical contest unfolding between Washington, Tehran, and their respective partners.

Sources
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 27, 1942): British physicist discovers solar radio waves

On this day in 1942, physicist James Stanley Hey noticed strange interference while operating British radar equipment during World War II. Though he initially attributed the jamming to the enemy (in this case, Nazi Germany), Hey realized that the pattern began at sunrise and ended at sunset. Astronomers at London's Royal Observatory confirmed that a sunspot was making its way across the Sun's surface; Hey knew that sunspots were sources of strong magnetic activity. This meant that he had accidentally discovered solar radio waves—and thus, the field of solar radio astronomy was born.