THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From billionaires backing up kids’ savings accounts to cautious diplomacy between Washington and Moscow, today’s headlines span money, migration, and high-stakes geopolitics.

We’re also tracking fragile movement on Gaza’s southern border, fresh disputes over hostages, and a sweeping U.S. decision to halt immigration applications from nearly 20 countries.

Another five-hour discussion, another peace-deal hot potato. Putin has now rejected the newly revised proposal — and today we break down what actually comes next for the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Michael and Susan Dell pledge $6.25B for kids’ savings in ‘Trump Accounts’
Billionaires Michael Dell and Susan Dell have pledged US$6.25 billion to fund 25 million “Trump Accounts,” investing $250 each for young children under 10 to help them start building savings. The accounts were designed to give every American child a financial head start, with government seed-money supplemented by the Dells’ donation. Supporters say the funding could help tens of millions of children access long-term savings for education, homes or business, while the Dells and administration cast it as a bold step toward widening economic opportunity for future generations.
read more 

2. Russia-US talks on Ukraine peace plan ‘constructive’ but ‘no compromise’ reached
Putin met U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner in Moscow for a nearly five-hour session aimed at advancing Washington’s revised peace plan for Ukraine. A senior Kremlin adviser described the talks as “constructive, very useful and substantive,” but also cautioned that no agreement was reached, especially regarding territorial disputes, which remain a major stumbling block. Both sides agreed that “much work remains” and committed to continue negotiations, indicating diplomatic engagement will persist even as the path to a deal remains uncertain.
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3. Rafah crossing to open ‘in coming days’ to let Gazans cross into Egypt
The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt is set to reopen “in the coming days,” allowing Gaza residents to cross into Egypt according to COGAT, the Israeli military body overseeing passage. The reopening will be coordinated with Egyptian authorities and monitored by a European Union mission, mirroring the controlled transit mechanism used earlier in 2025. COGAT emphasised the plan covers people’s exit from Gaza, but did not confirm if humanitarian aid would be allowed through the crossing at this time.
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4. Israel says remains handed over by Hamas on Tuesday are not of a Gaza hostage
The Israeli government announced that forensic tests show the remains handed over by Hamas on Tuesday do not belong to the two captives still believed to be held in Gaza. The remains were delivered via the International Committee of the Red Cross and subjected to DNA analysis at Israel’s national forensic lab, which concluded they are not linked to either the Israeli or Thai national still missing.
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5. U.S. pauses all immigration applications from 19 non-European countries
The U.S. government has paused all immigration applications from citizens of 19 non-European countries, citing national security and public safety concerns tied to recent violent events. The freeze affects nations previously subject to travel restrictions, including Afghanistan, Somalia, Iran, Libya, Yemen, and several others, and will also require a re-review of both pending applications and recent approvals.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Putin Rejects Peace Deal — What’s Next?

Context
President Trump’s advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin for roughly five hours on Tuesday, marking the most substantial direct engagement between the two sides since the Alaska summit in August. According to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov, the talks were “useful, constructive and meaningful,” though no breakthrough was reached on the central issue: territorial control in eastern Ukraine.

Ushakov confirmed the U.S. delegation presented proposals on how a future de facto border could be defined. But Putin reiterated his long-standing position — Russia intends to secure full control of the Donbas “through negotiations or by force.” He also asked Witkoff and Kushner to relay several confidential messages to Trump.

The meeting follows two weeks of intensive diplomacy around Trump’s now-condensed peace framework, cut from 28 points to 19 after multiple rounds with Ukrainian negotiators. The initial proposal was widely seen as favouring Moscow; subsequent revisions brought it closer to Kyiv’s red lines,  and, in turn, likely made it less appealing to Russia.

Witkoff and Kushner’s Moscow visit also comes after Sunday’s five-hour talks in Miami, where U.S. and Ukrainian officials focused almost entirely on potential land swaps. Ukrainian officials briefed the Americans on battlefield realities and contingency planning for a ceasefire.

The U.S. envoys were expected to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels on Wednesday to deliver a direct readout of the Kremlin talks. Zelensky has said the “chances to end the war are better than ever,” while warning that any potential agreement will involve “no easy decisions.” However, the meeting was abruptly canceled after Zelensky decided to return to Kyiv. Furthermore, the U.S. envoys, fresh from a five-hour meeting with Putin in Moscow, were instructed (according to the Kremlin) to fly directly back to Washington instead of continuing to Europe, though the U.S. has not confirmed this.

Our Analysis
And so the merry-go-round continues. The five-plus-hour meeting between Witkoff, Kushner, and Putin appears to have produced no real movement, exactly what anyone following our coverage would have expected. The dynamics, demands, and red lines haven’t shifted, and the predictable stalemate has returned right on schedule.

The red lines of both Putin and Zelensky always suggested that meaningful peace would be almost impossible at this stage. It would require one personality to give ground, and the moment the peace plan was revised to level the playing field, Putin was never going to accept it. Hence the hot-potato diplomacy we’re watching unfold. A fundamental issue is that neither side is truly at the “cracking” phase — which is exactly why we’re seeing parallel campaigns by both nations to break the other’s will to fight. That’s the logic behind the escalating strikes on energy infrastructure: not just battlefield pressure, but strategic exhaustion. In saying all these, what has followed has at least moved the needle of peace in some capacity.

If we assume President Putin genuinely believes he can win in Ukraine by force, one possible prediction we made aligns perfectly: that the original peace plans (heavily Moscow-favoured) were released on purpose to cause backlash and fracture the Western alliance backing Kyiv. After all, it was Witkoff himself who accidentally implied that “K” — widely assumed to be Russia’s senior negotiator Kirill Dmitriev — leaked the original document. And what has followed since, has been combustion of internal US politics and fracturing relations among it’s EU allies. Another consideration is that Putin may be trying to warm-up relations to cool U.S. sanctions and promote economic ties with the peace deal talks just being as a door in.

We’d focus attention on domestic Ukrainian politics, where Zelensky is facing his most serious pressure since the full-scale invasion began. His right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, is gone at the worst possible moment, raising questions about internal control. Former General Zaluzhnyi has also publicly criticised Zelensky, arguing the military wasn’t adequately prepared before the invasion. Layer onto that a widening corruption scandal, and together these developments represent the greatest strain on Zelensky’s political standing in three years.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 3, 1984): Gas leak in Bhopal, India

On this day in 1984, a gas leak from a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, spread over a populated area, resulting ultimately in 15,000 to 20,000 deaths and leaving some half million survivors with chronic medical ailments.