Putin's EU-Insider Loses Election, Trump To Begin Blockade

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A big day of shifts and splits: Hungary turns a political page after 16 years, while tensions in the Middle East ramp up with a looming U.S. blockade and a clear divide emerging as the UK steps back.

Meanwhile, the Pope wades into the debate calling for peace, and Australia and the U.S. double down on critical minerals in a bid to reshape supply chains.

Today we focus on the Trump blockade of the Hormuz, Iranian capabilities, expectations and the "so what?".

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Hungarian opposition ousts Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power
Hungary’s opposition has ended the 16-year rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, with the Tisza party led by Péter Magyar securing a decisive election victory and parliamentary supermajority. Orbán conceded defeat shortly after polls closed, calling the result “painful but unambiguous,” as record turnout reflected strong voter demand for political change. The outcome is expected to shift Hungary’s direction toward closer alignment with the European Union, though analysts note that dismantling Orbán’s entrenched political system could take time.
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2. US says blockade of Iran’s ports will start within hours
The United States has announced it will begin a naval blockade of Iranian ports within hours, targeting all vessels entering or leaving Iran’s coastal facilities. U.S. Central Command said the operation would apply to ships of all nations accessing Iranian ports, though vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to other destinations would not be affected. The move follows the collapse of high-level peace talks and marks a significant escalation, raising concerns about potential retaliation from Iran and further disruption to global energy markets.
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3. UK won’t take part in Trump’s blockade of Hormuz Strait, Starmer says
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said Britain will not support or participate in a US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, distancing London from Washington’s escalating military approach. Starmer emphasised that the UK’s priority is to reopen the vital shipping route and ensure freedom of navigation, rather than restrict it, warning of the economic impact of further disruption. The decision highlights growing differences between allies, as the United States moves ahead with its blockade plans following the collapse of Iran peace talks.
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4. Pope says he will continue to speak out against war after Trump attack
Pope Pope Leo XIV has said he will continue to speak out against war despite a public attack from Donald Trump over his stance on the Iran conflict. Speaking during a trip to Africa, the Pope emphasised that his calls for peace are rooted in moral responsibility, not politics, and said he would not engage in a direct debate with Trump. He reaffirmed his commitment to promoting dialogue and multilateral solutions, even as tensions between religious and political leaders intensify.
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5. Australia and US boost support for critical minerals with A$5 billion
Australia and the United States have committed more than A$5 billion in joint financing to support a range of critical minerals projects, nearly doubling previous pledges under their bilateral framework. The funding, backed by Export Finance Australia and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, will support projects focused on key materials such as rare earths, nickel and gallium, which are essential for defence, advanced manufacturing and clean energy. The initiative is aimed at strengthening supply chains and reducing reliance on China, which currently dominates global processing of many of these minerals.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel

Context
U.S. Central Command will begin enforcing a blockade on maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from April 13, 10 a.m. ET.

Trump announced Sunday that the US Navy will immediately impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of the Islamabad talks. CENTCOM has already technically begun the mission. Two US destroyers transited the strait and “mine-clearing operations are underway”. However, this was more likely a testing of the waters. The CENTCOM commander says a safe lane for commercial shipping will be established. Iran claimed it ordered one of the ships to turn back, the US denied that flatly, in response Iranian state media released audio of the radio exchange. 

As of now, the US has three littoral combat ships operating in the Persian Gulf, six destroyers operating independently in the Arabian Sea, and the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group also positioned in the Arabian Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group are also in the Mediterranean theater. The third carrier group, the USS George H.W. Bush is somewhere in the Atlantic. While three carrier groups does sound promising, it’s most likely going to take over the role of the Ford which should be heading home in May.

We also have thousands of U.S. troops, including elements of the 81st Airborne Division, and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship is also in the CENTCOM area of responsibility carrying roughly 3,500 Marines. The possibility of ground troops should not be ruled out given the importance of Kharg island.

Iranian capabilities
Don't be distracted by Iran's conventional navy losses. The conventional fleet was always largely decorative. According to Farzin Nadimi at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, more than 60 percent of the IRGC's fast-attack craft and speedboats remain intact despite weeks of US strikes, and those vessels continue to pose a serious threat to shipping. Simulations projecting saturation attacks from an estimated 1,600 to 2,000 missile launchers suggest Iran has the theoretical capacity to stress even advanced Aegis systems, particularly in radar-cluttered littoral environments.This is the real threat: hundreds if not thousands of small, fast, missile-mounted boats operating in swarms from coastal pens and hidden among fishing vessels. The same asymmetrical playbook from the tanker wars, just deadlier and more numerous.

How The Blockade Works
The logic is to turn the tables on Iran. Tehran has been exporting its own oil through the strait while keeping everyone else out, profiting massively from the price spike it created. A US blockade cuts off that cash flow and deprives the regime of the hard currency propping up its war machine. Washington Institute analysts suggest a parallel strategy targeting Kharg Island, through which Iran exports 90 percent of its oil, as the real economic pressure point. 

The upside is blunt and significant. Former Admiral James Stavridis described it as applying maximum economic pressure on Tehran without destroying oil infrastructure you'd want to preserve after the war. China, which buys a third of its oil through the strait, gets squeezed simultaneously and has a powerful incentive to push Tehran toward a deal. The downside is that this is not a clean enforcement operation. The Navy's fleet is roughly half the size it was during the 1980s tanker wars, and Iran's asymmetric capabilities are far more sophisticated today. Swarm attacks in 20-mile-wide chokepoint geography are a nightmare scenario for even the most advanced surface combatants. The other consideration is just how messy things may get, according to CENTCOM: “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.” However, enforcement may prove complex, with reports that Iran-linked tankers conduct deceptive port calls in Saudi Arabia and Iraq using AIS spoofing to obscure their true movements.

What about the mines?
This could be a much harder issue to fix than most imagine. Sea mine-clearing is notoriously difficult and even the Iranians have said they might have lost the locations of some of their mines. In September 2025, the U.S. Navy decommissioned its last Avenger-class minesweepers in Bahrain, ending nearly four decades of dedicated mine-clearing ships in the Persian Gulf. Their role is being replaced by Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships equipped with mine-countermeasure systems that rely on drones and remote sensors. Several of these replacement ships are already deployed with the U.S. 5th Fleet, with additional vessels planned.

Wider Picture
CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper was in Israel meeting IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir along with intelligence and operations directorate chiefs, signaling active coordination on what comes next. Sources within the IDF say another round with Iran is being actively prepared for. Trump has confirmed limited strikes remain on the table. Meanwhile a significant US military airbridge from Europe to Israel is ongoing, pre-positioning assets at a pace that suggests Washington is 

Sources available upon request

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(April 13, 2002): The military coup that a day before had installed businessman Pedro Carmona Estanga as interim president of Venezuela collapsed this day, and the following morning Hugo Chávez was restored to the presidency.