THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines span tense diplomacy in Southeast Asia, a narrowly avoided trade war, and renewed UN efforts toward a two-state solution.

Trump and Starmer meet in Scotland with Gaza and tariffs on the agenda, while pressure mounts on Elon Musk to rein in Starlink abuse across Southeast Asia. Each story underscores the intersection of geopolitics, tech, and trade as global power dynamics continue to shift.

Today we look into Ukraine’s new strategy targeting the heart of Russian logistics with drones.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. The leaders of Cambodia & Thailand arrived in Malaysia for talks about a ceasefire
The leaders of Cambodia and Thailand met in Putrajaya, Malaysia on July 28 in a high-stakes bid to broker a ceasefire after five days of deadly border clashes. Hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim under ASEAN auspices, the talks included the presence of U.S. and Chinese ambassadors, reflecting rising international concern and pressure, including from former President Trump, who reportedly linked trade talks to peace progress. Although both sides agreed to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, skirmishes continued into the meeting, underscoring lingering distrust and fragile prospects for lasting calm.
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2. US and EU avert trade war with 15% tariff deal
The United States and European Union have reached a last-minute agreement to avoid a trade war, settling on a 15% tariff for most EU imports. The deal heads off a threatened 30% tariff hike by the U.S., with exemptions carved out for key goods like aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment. While steel and aluminum remain under special quota arrangements, the broader agreement was welcomed by markets as a sign of stability and compromise in transatlantic trade relations.
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3. Ministers gather at UN for delayed meeting on Palestinian solution
Dozens of ministers convened at the United Nations on July 28 for a long-delayed conference marking a renewed push toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. The event, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, aims to establish a roadmap toward Palestinian statehood while safeguarding Israeli security but notably, both the U.S. and Israel are boycotting the gathering in protest. With around 40 countries represented, the meeting represents international momentum for diplomatic progress, although real breakthroughs seem unlikely without key parties at the table.
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4. Trump and Starmer to meet in Scotland with trade and Gaza on agenda
President Trump hosted British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at his Turnberry golf resort in western Scotland on Monday, combining leisure with diplomacy. Their discussions ranged from refining the recent U.S.–UK trade deal to urgent humanitarian concerns, particularly the worsening hunger crisis in Gaza as mass starvation grips the region. Starmer pressed Trump to pressure Israel into allowing increased aid access, while also spotlighting Ukraine and Britain’s steel tariffs though Trump ruled out any changes to existing duties.
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5. US senator wants Musk to block use of Starlink by financial fraud groups in Asia
A U.S. Senator has urged Elon Musk to block Southeast Asian criminal networks from using Starlink satellite internet to run fraud operations targeting Americans. These so-called “scam compounds” in countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos have reportedly defrauded victims of billions of dollars through money schemes facilitated in part by Starlink connectivity. Despite service policies that allow termination for illicit activity, the senator emphasised that SpaceX has yet to act, and federal authorities are calling on the company to cut off access for known criminal users.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

UKRAINIAN DRONES STRIKE AT RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE

“Amateurs talk about strategy. Professionals talk about logistics.”

Recently, we have seen several high-frequency attacks on the Caucasus region of Russia. Attacks on this region are not unusual, but the key differentiating factor this time is that most drones were concentrated on this specific location. In previous operations, attacks typically formed part of a broader campaign targeting areas such as St Petersburg, Moscow, and other parts of Russia.

The Importance of the Railway
The railway system is a central component of Russia’s logistics. All of its armour and supplies are transported across the country via a well-organised railway network that are connected to the factories are eventually fed into the war effort in Ukraine. Previously, logistics became bottlenecked inside Ukraine due to the lack of a secure or intact railway structure.

However, since 2024, a major construction effort has been underway to create a new railway system connecting southern Russia directly to the Kherson region and Crimea. This train network has standardised logistics and, most importantly, reduced the strategic importance of the Crimean Bridge (which has a railway track), a frequent target for drones and sabotage. While the bridge is not in immediate danger, its closure still causes delays.

This makes southern Russia a critical logistics hub, as it borders the main section of Russia’s occupied territory in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Previous Attacks on Logistics
The importance of railways is not a new discovery. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted trains and sabotaged railway infrastructure both within Russian-occupied Ukraine and inside Russian territory. These attacks have ranged from special forces operations and strikes on electricity grids to actions by pro-Ukrainian partisans.

There was even a rumoured “spider web” attack, first mentioned on Russian Telegram channels, though no footage was released. As disruptive as these attacks are, they have not meaningfully impeded Russia’s logistics capabilities. Most trains are armoured, guarded by sentry units, equipped with electronic warfare capabilities, and able to reroute quickly if tracks are damaged.

Sabotage attempts still happen; Last night, a substation in the area of the Oktyabrsky settlement in the Volgograd region was hit.

So What’s Changed?
In the last five days, there have been a series of back-to-back attacks using large drone swarms. Ukraine first struck a thermal power plant that supplies electricity to southern Russian railways, followed by an attack on a railway bridge, and now a southern Russian railway marshalling yard. While these were not the only targets (Ukraine also hit weapons factories) this pattern suggests an effort to strike at the heart of Russia’s logistics.

Drone attacks on the Volgograds (Stalingrad) substation have caused large fires, the substation powers the Vologograd-Kotelinikovo rail line. Along the Volgograd–Kotelnikovo line, several key industrial facilities are located: the Petrov Factory - heavy or military-related production; the Kirov Factory - heavy industry, including defense manufacturing; and the Erman Factory - metallurgical and machine-tool output (Tatargrami).

The strategy has shifted from isolated sabotage to a coordinated campaign aimed at disabling or weakening key infrastructure of Russian logistics efforts.

So Why Not Before?
There could be several reasons. One theory is that Western pressure on Ukraine may have previously limited attacks on what some consider another “red line,” though this alone is unlikely as Ukraine has ignored such boundaries before.

More plausibly, Russia’s ability to counter drone attacks with air defence is limited and increasingly stretched. Much of its best air defence coverage has been concentrated in central and northern Russia. Ukraine may have identified a vulnerability in the south and seized the opportunity.

Sources:
Tatarigami_UA. (2025, July 27). Ukraine continues its efforts to disrupt Russian logistics, particularly targeting rail infrastructure in southern Russia [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1949303401516568803

TrentTelenko. (2025, July 27). The pattern of drone attacks in southern Russia is consistent with a focused Ukrainian campaign on logistics [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1948192742003085425

WarTranslated. (2025, July 27). Ukrainian sources confirm attacks on key railway nodes in southern Russia as part of wider strategic objectives [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1947942479145116146

Paolobucci18. (2025, July 28). Strikes on southern Russian rail hubs have escalated significantly over the past week, raising concerns among Russian milbloggers [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/paolobucci18/status/1949327762071642197

Prune602. (2025, May 5). Footage shows Ukrainian partisans sabotaging railway lines used for Russian military transport in occupied territories [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/Prune602/status/1820237131148673325

TWEET OF THE DAY

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 28 1914): Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, marking the official start of World War I. Within weeks, the conflict expanded as alliances drew major powers into one of the deadliest wars in human history.