Russia Advances In Huliaipole, RSF Retakes Key Border Village And More

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s another heavy news cycle today, with a deadly strike in Kabul raising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad comes under one of its most intense attacks yet as the Iran-linked conflict spreads.

At the same time, Donald Trump’s comments on Cuba add fuel to an already dire energy crisis on the island, European leaders warn Israel against a major ground offensive in Lebanon, and the IMF flags concerns over Ukraine’s access to critical wartime funding.

Today we cover three frontiers, from Russia-Ukraine, to the Sudanese War and the expanding Hezbollah-Israel War on Lebanons border.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Afghanistan says 400 people killed in Pakistan strike on Kabul hospital
Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of carrying out an airstrike on a drug rehabilitation hospital in Kabul that it says killed around 400 people and injured roughly 250 others. The Taliban government said the strike destroyed large parts of the facility, which was housing thousands of patients at the time, marking one of the deadliest incidents in the escalating conflict between the two countries. Pakistan has denied targeting any civilian site, saying its operations were aimed at militant infrastructure, as tensions continue to rise following weeks of cross-border clashes.
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2. Donald Trump floats Cuba takeover as country endures widespread blackouts
Trump has suggested the United States could “take” Cuba in some form, making the remarks as the island faces a severe energy crisis and widespread blackouts. His comments come amid a U.S.-imposed oil blockade that has cut off key fuel supplies, contributing to the collapse of Cuba’s power grid and worsening economic conditions. The statements were made as Washington and Havana hold talks to ease tensions, though Cuban officials have stressed sovereignty and rejected external interference.
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3. US embassy in Iraq comes under drone, rocket attack as Iran war expands
A major drone and rocket attack targeted the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, with Iraqi security sources reporting multiple projectiles launched toward the heavily fortified compound in the Green Zone. U.S. air defence systems intercepted several incoming threats, but at least one drone struck the embassy grounds, causing fire and smoke, while explosions were heard across the city. The attack is one of the most intense on the embassy since the start of the U.S.–Iran war, and is believed to be linked to Iranian-backed militia retaliation as the regional conflict continues to expand.
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4. European leaders warn Israel against ground offensive in Lebanon
Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have jointly warned Israel against launching a major ground offensive in Lebanon, saying it could have devastating humanitarian consequences and risk prolonging the conflict. In a coordinated statement, the countries expressed deep concern over escalating violence and called for immediate de-escalation and renewed diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon. The warning comes as fighting with Hezbollah intensifies.
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5. IMF raises concern over Ukraine’s access to $8.1B aid, Bloomberg reports
The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about Ukraine’s continued access to its $8.1 billion aid program, warning that progress on required reforms and financing conditions will be critical to unlock future funding tranches. The program, approved in February, is part of a broader international support package aimed at stabilizing Ukraine’s economy as the war with Russia continues, with an initial $1.5 billion already disbursed. IMF officials have stressed that delays in reforms or external financing risks could jeopardize further payouts.
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CONFLICTS AROUND THE WORLD

RUSSIA-UKRAINE
It seems the Russian push for east of Orikhiv has begun early. Russian forces have intensified offensive operations and made consistent gains across multiple axes in recent weeks. In the south, Ukrainian positions southwest of Hulyaipole have collapsed, allowing Russian units to secure key tactical heights and recapture Myrne. To the north, breakthroughs near Zaliznychne enabled advances along the highway, forcing Ukrainian withdrawals and the capture of Hirke, with remaining positions now under pressure from converging assaults. Further north, Tsvitkove fell after prolonged fighting, while clashes continue near Staroukrainka. Russian DRG activity is also increasing in rear areas.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have made further progress north - in response to this, Russia is sending its famed Rubikon drone unit in an attempt to halt these advances.

SUDANESE CIVIL WAR
RSF militants have once again seized control of the strategic border town of Tina in North Darfur, displacing Joint Forces that had been protecting the area and its large IDP population. The town, a key gateway for trade and humanitarian aid from Chad, has seen repeated clashes in recent weeks. Just days ago, Joint Forces claimed to have repelled a major RSF assault, destroying dozens of vehicles and killing a field commander. Notably, in previous fighting, the Joint Forces managed to recapture Tina within hours—raising the possibility of another rapid counteroffensive as control of the town remains highly contested. In this kind of desert terrain, it’s hard to dig in and supply chains are often limited meaning it’s more logical to retreat than stand and fight.

HEZBOLLAH-ISRAEL
IDF forces have pushed deeper along the southern Lebanon front, advancing into southern Kfar Kela and securing the final contested sections of Odaisseh. Engineering units are now deploying, signalling potential large-scale demolition of border-adjacent structures, similar to operations seen in Gaza. Concurrently, Israeli forces are probing Taybeh from multiple directions but remain largely on the outskirts. Further west, advances between Houla and Markaba continue to consolidate control over surrounding terrain. The 91st Division is driving into Aitaroun, Maroun el-Ras, and Yaroun. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit is attempting to slow momentum through hit-and-run attacks, as anti-tank engagements persist.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

"it ain't much but it's honest work" 😂

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 17): St. Patrick, patron saint of Ireland, died this day in 461, according to legend, and now his feast day is celebrated widely in Ireland and the rest of the world.