Russia and Ukraine Make Gains, Israeli Strikes Hit Southern Lebanon

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Royal diplomacy meets hard geopolitics, as King Charles and Queen Camilla touch down in Washington while tensions continue to simmer elsewhere. Israel ramps up activity over Lebanon even as Putin throws his support behind Iran, highlighting how tightly connected these theatres have become.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is back in court, and a deadly attack in Nigeria is a stark reminder that instability isn’t confined to just one region.

In today’s deep dive, we focus on the Pokrovsk’e front, as Russian units begin their own offensive to retake lost land over the winter months.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. King Charles and Queen Camilla meet Trump’s at White House
King Charles III and Queen Camilla have met with U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump at the White House as part of a four-day state visit to the United States. The visit began with a formal welcome and private engagements, including afternoon tea, and is aimed at reinforcing the long-standing relationship between the U.S. and the U.K. The trip comes amid recent diplomatic tensions, with both sides using the visit to emphasise cooperation and maintain ties despite disagreements on key geopolitical issues.
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2. Israeli strikes hit Southern Lebanon as drones fly over Beirut
Israeli forces carried out airstrikes and opened fire in southern Lebanon, with reports of heavy shelling in areas including Bint Jbeil and Zawtar al-Sharqiya, despite an ongoing ceasefire. At the same time, drones were seen flying over Beirut, including the capital’s southern suburbs, marking a notable expansion of aerial activity beyond frontline areas.
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3. Putin meets Iranian FM Araghchi, pledges support for Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Saint Petersburg, where he pledged support for Iran amid ongoing regional tensions. Putin praised Iran’s resilience and reaffirmed Moscow’s willingness to help stabilise the situation, while also signalling readiness to support diplomatic efforts and potential mediation.
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4. Netanyahu returns to court to testify in corruption trial  
Netanyahu has returned to court to testify in his ongoing corruption trial after a pause of more than two months due to the Iran conflict. The hearing, which had initially been scheduled to resume earlier, was briefly delayed again at the last minute over security concerns raised by his legal team before proceeding. Netanyahu’s testimony continues in a trial that has been repeatedly disrupted by regional conflicts and political developments, with Netanyahu denying all charges against him.
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5. Gunmen kill 29 in attack in Nigeria’s Adamawa state, governor says
Gunmen have killed at least 29 people in an attack on the village of Guyaku in Nigeria’s northeastern Adamawa state, according to the state governor. Local officials said the attackers opened fire on residents gathered in the community, with the assault lasting several hours and leaving homes and property destroyed. The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which underscores the ongoing insurgency and worsening security situation in northern Nigeria.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Russia - Ukraine

The Pokrovs'ke front saw mixed results for both sides over the reporting period. Russian forces made gains in the northeast, clearing fields north of Novoivanivka, retaking treeline positions near Novomykolaivka, and pushing into southern Rybne. They also intensified pressure along the Haichur River western bank, reaching approaches to Radisne. Ukrainian forces countered by re-entering northwestern Novomykolaivka and successfully clearing Danylivka, Yehorivka, Tsehelne, and Pryvillya after repelling Russian mechanised assaults, also recapturing positions south of Vyshneve. To the southwest, Russia reversed Ukrainian gains around Solodke and continued infiltrating Kosivtseve. Verbove and surrounding positions remain fully contested grey-zone. Net territorial change slightly favours Ukraine at roughly 24.4 km² gained against Russia's 21.6 km², but neither side has achieved anything close to a decisive breakthrough.