THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines take us from the Caribbean to the Sea of Japan, with Washington seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker, Beijing dispatching its top diplomat across the Gulf, and Bulgarians flooding the streets demanding their government step aside.

The U.S. is also green-lighting a major F-16 tech upgrade for Pakistan while sending B-52s to fly with Japan in a show of force after joint China-Russia drills.

In today’s Deep Dive, we take a look at Kupiansk, where according to some sources, Russia may have stretched itself too far and is paying the price.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. US seizes oil tanker off coast of Venezuela
The United States has seized a large oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, in an operation that President Trump described as targeting a vessel used to transport sanctioned oil and marking the largest such seizure to date. The operation, carried out by the U.S. Coast Guard with support from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security and military, involved troops boarding the vessel from helicopters and came amid an ongoing U.S. build-up and pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela’s government condemned the move as “blatant theft” and an “act of international piracy".
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2. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi to visit UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan for bilateral talks
China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, will embark on a five-day Middle East tour from 12–16 December 2025, visiting the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan at the invitation of his counterparts in each capital. During the visits, Wang is expected to hold bilateral talks aimed at consolidating political trust, enhancing cooperation and discussing shared priorities in regional affairs, including preparations for the next China-Arab States Summit.
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3. Bulgarians demand government resign in mass protests over corruption
Tens of thousands of Bulgarians rallied across Sofia and other major cities to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov’s minority government, accusing it of failing to tackle widespread corruption. Protesters projected slogans such as “Resignation,” “Mafia Out,” and “For Fair Elections” onto the parliament building, and opposition parties have called a no-confidence vote in parliament as demonstrations continue ahead of Bulgaria’s planned eurozone entry on January 1. The unrest has persisted despite the government withdrawing its controversial 2026 budget plan.
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4. US approves $686 million tech upgrade for F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan
The US has approved a US $686 million package to provide advanced technology and support for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jet fleet, notifying Congress of the proposed sale through the DSCA. The deal includes Link-16 tactical data link systems, cryptographic equipment, avionics upgrades, training, and comprehensive logistical support, and is intended to modernise Pakistan’s Block-52 and Mid-Life Upgrade F-16 aircraft and address flight-safety concerns. U.S. officials say the upgrades will help maintain interoperability between the Pakistan Air Force and U.S. and partner forces in counterterrorism and future operations.
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5. US bombers join Japanese jets in show of force after China-Russia drills
The US deployed two nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to fly over the Sea of Japan alongside Japanese fighter jets in a coordinated show of force following recent Chinese and Russian military drills near Japan and South Korea. Japan’s Defence Ministry said the mission was intended to reaffirm the readiness of both U.S. and Japanese forces and their resolve to prevent any unilateral attempt to change the regional status quo by force. The flight came after a joint patrol by Chinese and Russian strategic bombers and separate Chinese carrier drills that prompted Japanese jets to scramble.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Has Russia Stretched Itself Too Far In Kupiansk?

Context
The situation for the Russians in Kupiansk is appearing critical to some analysts. Ukriane has committed reinforcements in both drones and infantry to first contain Russian expansion in the key border city – but has now begun its own offensive. We have written before about the foggy situation west of Kupiansk in the suburbs of Moskovka and beyond. The area was largely defended by sparse Russian DRG units who would use Moskovka as a launching pad into Sobolivka. In recent weeks, Ukraine has managed to consolidate what was a large greyzone from the two suburbs mentioned, but also much of the surrounding area. 

Naturally, this has opened a very long drawn out flank for the Russians, whos supply lines are at risk along the entire stretch of the city and its suburbs. On December 9, AMK reported that Ukrainian troops made several tactical advances across western Kupyansk. Ukrainian forces pushed through the southern residential suburbs, advanced from Moskovka into the northwestern streets, and moved from the western outskirts toward the city centre, where fighting has now reached the train station area. These gains have allowed Ukraine to block/disrupt Russian logistics west of the Oskil River, placing the Russian garrison there in an operational encirclement. Russia countered with localised counterattacks, particularly in the Yuvileynyi high-rise district, where they retook several apartment blocks and slowed Ukrainian momentum. East of the Oskil, Russian forces continued their own offensive, advancing more than 2.6 km toward Petropavlivka, entrenching in the northern streets, and pushing toward the Hnylytsya River. Fighting remains fluid as Russia attempts to stabilise the eastern flank while Ukraine presses inside the city proper.

As of the last 24 hours, Ukraine has consolidated several key positions across western Kupyansk, including multiple high-rise buildings in the north, the grain elevators west of the city centre, several residential streets leading toward central districts, and roughly half of the low-rise Yuvileynyi neighbourhood — tightening pressure on Russian units still holding fragmented positions nearby.

What complicates the picture even further is Ukraine’s refusal to withdraw from the eastern bank. Despite fears that Ukrainian units east of the Oskil could be encircled and pushed up against the river, no pullback has been ordered. This stubborn defence has slowed Russian advances, prevented a clean sweep of the eastern approaches, and — more importantly — created a thin, overextended Russian salient funnelling into Kupyansk. 

Different Opinions
What’s most interesting here is the conflicting picture emerging from different sources. AMK_Mapping and several Russian milbloggers insist the situation is becoming critical for Russian forces, while ISW (typically aligned with Ukrainian assessments) reported that Ukrainian officials say overall fighting intensity has actually decreased compared to recent weeks, with no major changes. With a strict information blackout in place, the truth is difficult to pin down. Neither side would want to spill any beans if a localised offensive is taking place.  Still, geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian gains west of the city and shows Russian troops attempting to retreat across the Oskil River. Suriyak has also noted the attempts to cut off supply lines as of the 9th of December, but has stated they have largely failed.

Why The Big Importance?
The question remains as to why the importance on Kupiansk. Like we have said for Ukraine many times, each battle for Ukraine means less soldiers for the next one. Is it worth sacrificing material and manpower for a northern city in the Kharkiv region? The city is definitely not in the diplomatic limelight as are its Donetsk counterparts. Furthermore, AMK’s sources state that Ukraine is taking heavy casualties (big use of mercenaries) but still continues attacks. Ukrainian analyst, Mashovets, believes that Russia is expected to shift forces from Kupyansk to Vovchansk, with elements of the 14th Army Corps and 1st Guards Tank Army redeploying as Moscow deems the Vovchansk advance too slow. To accelerate progress, Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukrainian GLOCs, recently hitting the Pechenihy Dam and Staryi Saltiv bridge. However, I doubt this as being the reason for the recent troubles. Just because one side is on the offensive and the other is not, does not mean cracks cannot appear for the attacker.

Kupiansk is evolving into a battle of attrition wrapped inside a battle of logistics. Ukraine currently holds the initiative inside the city, while Russia pushes on the eastern bank to prevent a wider collapse. The frontline remains extremely fluid, and with conflicting reports and an active information blackout, the only certainty is that this sector is far from stabilised. The next 1–2 weeks will determine whether Kupiansk becomes Russia’s most overextended salient — or Ukraine’s most costly counteroffensive of the winter.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 11, 1978): The Lufthansa heist

Cash and jewels worth more than $5 million were stolen from an air cargo building at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on this day in 1978. Only one person was ever convicted in connection with the Lufthansa heist, and almost none of the stolen money was recovered.