THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions and turmoil ripple across the globe, from the skies over Ukraine to bridges collapsing in India.

Russia has unleashed its largest drone assault yet on Ukraine, sending hundreds of drones and missiles in a stark escalation that has set off alarms far beyond the battlefield. Meanwhile, tragedies and geopolitical manoeuvres keep unfolding—from deadly ambushes in Nigeria and war games in Taiwan, to espionage intrigues in Kyiv.

In today’s deep dive, we explore the sheer scale and significance of Russia’s record-breaking drone attack—and what it means for the trajectory of this grinding war.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war
Ukraine endured the most extensive aerial assault of the war on July 9, as Russia launched 728 drones and 13 missiles overnight, marking what officials describe as the largest drone attack in history. The city of Lutsk, a key military hub in western Ukraine, was heavily targeted, with Ukrainian air defences intercepting 296 drones, while 415 drones were lost or jammed - according to Ukrainian sources. The attack prompted Poland to place its forces on high alert, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned of a growing Russian threat to the EU.
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2. At least 9 dead after bridge collapse in Gujarat state in Western India
On July 9, a section of the Gambhira Bridge over the Mahisagar River in Gujarat's Vadodara district collapsed, sending multiple vehicles into the river below. At least nine people have been confirmed dead, with several others injured, as rescue operations continue . The bridge, built in 1985, had reportedly been under scrutiny for structural concerns, and the incident has prompted calls for a thorough investigation into infrastructure safety and maintenance practices in the region.
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3. Bandits kill at least 70 security volunteers in Nigeria ambush
Bandits killed at least 70 community security volunteers in an ambush in violence-ridden Plateau state in central Nigeria, residents and a volunteer leader said on Wednesday. Volunteer leader Aliyu Baffa said the ambush occurred around 1300 GMT on Monday near the Kukawa and Bunyun communities in the Kanam district as hundreds of volunteers were heading to Madam Forest, a known hideout of heavily armed bandits.
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4. Taiwan simulates attacks on military command in annual war games
Taiwan has launched its largest-ever Han Kuang military exercises, simulating attacks on command systems and infrastructure to prepare for a potential Chinese invasion. The 10-day drills focus on decentralised command responses to communication disruptions, incorporating lessons from the Ukraine conflict to enhance resilience against cyber attacks and misinformation. This year's exercises involve a record 22,000 reservists and introduce High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and Sky Sword missiles, with China closely monitoring the event and labeling the drills as a bluff.
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5. Two Chinese nationals detained in Kyiv for alleged espionage
Ukrainian authorities have detained two Chinese nationals in Kyiv on suspicion of attempting to steal sensitive military technology. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is investigating the individuals' activities, which are believed to be linked to efforts to acquire classified defense information. This incident adds to growing concerns over foreign espionage targeting Ukraine's military advancements amid ongoing regional tensions.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

BATTLE OF BRIT….LUTSK

On July 9th, Russia launched a large-scale aerial attack on Ukraine, combining ballistic missile strikes with mass drone swarms. The primary target appeared to be the western city of Lutsk, a key logistical hub that connects NATO-supplied equipment with Ukraine’s eastern front.

According to satellite fire detection data (NASA FIRMS), significant fires were recorded at multiple impact sites. These included warehouse facilities in Lutsk—some located within a few hundred meters of Lutsk Airbase—as well as the Ozerne Airbase in Zhytomyr Oblast. These facilities were hit following the arrival of Kh-101 cruise missiles and Geran-2 drones.

In total, Russia launched 7 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and 5 Kh-101 cruise missiles. All seven Kinzhals impacted Lutsk or its immediate vicinity. Of the Kh-101s, three landed in Lutsk, while two struck Ozerne Airbase. None of the missiles were intercepted.

This is consistent with a trend in recent months. Russia has begun launching Kh-101s from much deeper within its own territory, including from Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. These new flight paths allow cruise missiles to bypass Ukraine’s existing radar detection systems. On July 9, the Tu-95 bomber used for the launches departed from Engels-2 Airbase, with no launches observed from Olenya Airbase, a previously common origin point.

In parallel, Russia deployed between 400 and 700 Geran-2 drones (depending on the source). Most were directed at western Ukraine, further burdening Ukrainian air defence assets concentrated in Lutsk and Zhytomyr. However, some drones were also tracked over Poltava, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblast.

The scale and structure of the strike suggest that the aim was to overwhelm and confuse Ukrainian defenses, limit the movement of military aid from west to east, and exploit any delays in Western political and logistical responses. The timing of the attack—closely following announcements that U.S. support for Ukraine would resume—may also indicate Russia’s intent to apply pressure during moments of political recalibration.

An attack of this magnitude should not be happening. There is clearly a failure protect key logistical assets - whether that is due to low interceptor missile numbers or new Russian strategy. Regardless, Ukraine cannot afford to have these locations targeted. Firstly, NATO members might reconsider sending supplies to Ukraine that will inevitably be destroyed in a warehouse. Secondly, it reduces Ukraines strategic projection - i.e deep strikes into Russian territory (if the goal of this attack NATO weaponry - which it probably was). Lastly, it is not a good PR look - there is a growing trend of more and more videos being released of attacks on Ukrainian soil, suggesting civilians are not worried about military police knocking on their door.

Sources:
Amk_Mapping T
NASA FIRMS
Monitorwar T

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 9, 1762): Catherine the Great assumed power. Catherine the Great overthrew Peter III on this day in 1762 and began her reign as empress of Russia, leading her country into full participation in the political and cultural life of Europe and extending Russian territory.