THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been a day of big moves — from Israel officially signing off on a Gaza ceasefire deal to Taiwan unveiling its own “T-Dome” air defence system.

In South America, Peru is once again in political upheaval after Congress ousted its president, while the Kremlin made headlines by saying it would back Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Elsewhere, Singapore and New Zealand have upgraded their ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, strengthening cooperation on trade, defence and climate.

In today’s deep dive we analyse Russia’s new push for Pokrovs’ke (no, not that one) in southern Donetsk as it tries to find a way around the deadlock.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israeli cabinet ratifies Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas
Israel’s Cabinet has formally ratified a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement with Hamas, paving the way for a pause in fighting and the return of remaining hostages within 72 hours. The deal, part of President Trump’s peace initiative, calls for Israel to partially withdraw from Gaza while Hamas frees all captive Israelis in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Ratification by the government clears the final domestic hurdle for the agreement to take effect.
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2. Taiwan president unveils ‘T-Dome’ air defence system
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te announced a new air defences initiative called “T-Dome” during his National Day speech, pledging to accelerate its deployment to counter growing Chinese military pressure. He said Taiwan would build a “safety net” of multi-layered detection and interception capabilities, drawing an explicit comparison to Israel’s Iron Dome. Lai also committed to increasing defence spending to over 3 % of GDP as part of the island’s broader push to fortify sovereignty.
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3. Peru’s President removed by Congress, legislature chief sworn in
Peru’s Congress voted overwhelmingly to remove President Dina Boluarte from office on grounds of “moral incapacity,” with 124 lawmakers in favor of her ouster. José Jerí, the head of Congress, was sworn in almost immediately as interim president, becoming Peru’s seventh leader since 2016. Boluarte’s removal comes amid a deep public backlash over crime waves, scandals, and chronic political instability.
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4. Kremlin says it would support Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
The Kremlin has publicly expressed support for Donald Trump’s candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to a statement by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov cited by TASS. While the Kremlin’s endorsement is unlikely to affect the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s deliberations, it signals Moscow’s desire to align itself with Trump’s global narrative of peace diplomacy. Observers note the timing adds a theatrical element to an already high-stakes debate.
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5. Singapore and New Zealand sign strategic partnership
Singapore and New Zealand have upgraded their existing Enhanced Partnership to a full Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), with leaders from both countries promising closer cooperation across trade, defence, supply chains, digital trade, climate, and essential supplies. (Prime Minister Christopher Luxon highlighted that this agreement will legally ensure vital goods like food, medicine and fuel continue flowing even during crises.) The move also reflects concerns shared by both countries about a changing global order, where they say economic interdependencies are increasingly weaponised, making stronger bilateral ties more crucial than ever.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

RUSSIA’S NEW GAMBLE: SOUTHERN DONETSK

North Pokrovsk Sector Update
We’ve talked before about how armoured units were being relocated from quieter fronts like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka axis. Analysts (including us) predicted this shift would lead to the return of mechanized assaults, something we haven’t seen on this scale for quite some time.

For those new here: drone warfare has nearly eliminated the viability of large-scale mechanized assaults. The sheer volume of FPVs and reconnaissance drones in the skies makes it almost impossible for armor to operate without being targeted within minutes.

However, Russia appears to be adapting. The deployment of specialized drone-hunting units like Rubicon to the Pokrovsk sector marks a tactical shift. These teams focus on detecting and neutralizing opposing drone operators, creating small “windows” for ground advances. Combined with electronic warfare systems and the recent shift in weather,  stronger winds, cloud cover, and poor visibility, conditions have become more favorable for Russian armored movements.

In short, bad weather equals fewer drones, and that may be exactly what Moscow is counting on.

Russian deployments to Dobropillya sector: 

132nd & 114th Motor Rifle Brigades, 51st Army - 88th Regiment, 51st Army New deployments since September: - 336th Naval Infantry Brigade - elements of the 39th Brigade, 68th Army Corps - elements of 1st, 5th & 110th Motor Rifle Brigades, 51st Army

According to @Deepstate_UA, Russian forces launched a series of mechanized assaults on Volodymyrivka, beginning earlier in the morning with a turtle tank, two armoured vehicles, and six motorcycles. While the armor was disabled, dismounted troops scattered into nearby bushes and houses. Later at noon, at least seven armored vehicles took part in another attack, followed by additional assaults at 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., involving two tanks and seven armored vehicles in total. Between 50 and 75 Russian infantry reportedly made it into the village.

The attacks mark Russia’s second mechanised push in three days, as forces attempt to exploit overcast weather that reduces the effectiveness of Ukrainian ISR UAVs.

Pokrovsk City Situation
While the battle for Pokrovsk city itself remains relatively static, there are several reasons for this. First, Russia’s main priority lies further north, around the Dobropillia salient. If that position collapses, it could expose Russia’s flank and unravel its northern pincer — a risk the Russian command cannot afford. As a result, their focus is on consolidating gains in the north before escalating pressure on Pokrovsk city.

Second, Ukrainian defences around Pokrovsk remain exceptionally strong. Despite Russia’s manpower advantage, much of the fighting occurs between small assault groups of two to four soldiers, making territorial advances slow and costly. One has to consider how much does a manpower advantage matter when engagements and ‘advances’ are limiting to recon units of two to four a side. 

Third, Pokrovsk’s extensive mining tunnel systems, which we’ve covered before, provide Ukrainian troops with defensive depth — allowing them to shelter during large FAB airstrikes, store ammunition, and maneuver underground between sectors.

Southern Donetsk Movements
In contrast, Russian units in the southern Donetsk sector are currently achieving the most tangible progress, gaining over 21 kilometers of territory since the offensive began. The 90th Tank Division has now fully repositioned south of Ivanivka–Novopavlivka, while the 35th, 55th, 74th, and 137th Brigades have been redeployed from southern Pokrovsk toward Novopavlivka. Meanwhile, only the 15th and 30th Brigades, along with elements of the 27th Division, remain south of Pokrovsk. Additional movements include the 29th and 36th Armies shifting south to reinforce the push toward Pokrovs’ke, with the 74th and 137th Brigades taking over the 90th Tank Division’s former positions along the Vovcha River.

The rationale behind these movements is clear: Russia’s southern grouping is producing the highest return per square kilometer, and the Ministry of Defense is doubling down on that momentum. The initial objective of capturing all of Donetsk has stalled due to stiff Ukrainian resistance, poor weather, and diminishing drone superiority in certain sectors. With the majority of Ukrainian reinforcements now concentrated in central Donetsk, cracks are beginning to appear elsewhere, and Moscow is exploiting them through what we call the  “death by a thousand papercuts” tactic — starting fires everywhere to stretch Ukraine and create gaps. 

However, this latest redeployment suggests a much larger ‘fire starter’ attempt. With an operational attempt at a breakthrough toward Pokrovs’ke, with the aim of outflanking Ukrainian defensive lines stretching around Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The Russians are now approaching the final defensive belt protecting Pokrovs’ke’s outskirts (as shown by Playfra well made map), prompting the MOD to rush reinforcements in an effort to outpace Ukrainian reserves.

If Pokrovs’ke falls, it would create a new salient  a launch point for further Russian expansion deeper into the oblasts. While not the main priority, it still is part of what Putin considers “rightful Russian territory.”

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 10, 1845): Founding of the U.S. Naval Academy

To improve the then-unsatisfactory methods of instructing midshipmen, George Bancroft—historian, educator, and secretary of the navy—founded the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, on this day in 1845.