THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It was another busy night across the global stage, from major defence meetings in Southeast Asia to new royal developments in the UK and a controversial move by Washington on nuclear testing.

Markets and policymakers alike are watching closely as power balances continue to shift across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

While the Battle of Pokrovsk seems to be in it’s final moments, Russian troops have advanced into the outer suburbs of Lyman.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Pete Hegseth meets China, India defence ministers at Southeast Asian Summit
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held high-level meetings in Kuala Lumpur with China’s and India’s defence ministers during a Southeast Asian security summit aimed at reinforcing the Indo-Pacific balance. In one standout development, the U.S. and India signed a 10-year defence framework agreement to boost coordination, tech sharing and long-term cooperation. During talks with China’s counterpart, Hegseth expressed firm concern over what he described as Beijing’s “grey-zone tactics” in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, a clear signal of Washington’s strategic posture.
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2. Xi set to meet Canadian, Japanese leaders after Trump trade truce
Xi Jinping is set to hold bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi following a fragile trade truce with Donald Trump. The meetings, to take place on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea, will focus on trade, supply-chain resilience and broader regional economic security. While the truce eases immediate tensions between the U.S. and China, analysts say Xi’s separate outreach to Canada and Japan signals a wider bet on China’s role in shaping the multipolar trade architecture.
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3. King Charles strips brother Andrew of titles and his mansion
King Charles III has formally stripped his younger brother, Prince Andrew, of all his royal titles and evicted him from the 30-room Royal Lodge mansion in Windsor, Buckingham Palace confirmed. Andrew will now be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and relocate to private accommodation on the Sandringham estate. The decision comes amid renewed scrutiny of Andrew’s links to Jeffrey Epstein and the broader fallout from longstanding allegations.
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4. Trump orders Pentagon to ‘immediately’ start testing nuclear weapons
Trump has directed the United States Department of Defense to “immediately” resume nuclear weapons testing, ending a moratorium that has been in place since 1992. He justified the move by pointing to the nuclear testing programmes of Russia and China, stating the U.S. must test “on an equal basis.” Minsk condemned the move as “unfriendly” and part of a Western-backed escalation, while Vilnius treats the visits as part of broader pressure from the Russian-allied Belarusian regime.
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5. US, Philippines from military task force for areas including South China Sea
The United States Department of Defense and the Philippines have formed a new joint military task - force, dubbed “Task Force-Philippines”, to enhance operational cooperation, joint planning and interoperability, with a particular focus on the troubled South China Sea. The announcement came after a meeting between U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro at the ASEAN defence summit in Kuala Lumpur, where both sides reiterated their goal of re-establishing deterrence in the region and modernising their defence partnership over the next two years.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE BATTLE OF LYMAN PART 1

While we’re seeing the final days of Pokrovsk, over the past 72 hours, Russian forces have intensified operations on the Lyman axis, achieving one of their most significant local breakthroughs in weeks. The offensive, spearheaded by assault detachments of the 25th Army under the Western Military District, breached Ukrainian defensive lines within the Sviati Hory (Holy Mountains) National Park –  a dense, forested reserve that has long served as a natural barrier east of Lyman.

According to footage verified on 29 October, Russian advance elements have reached the eastern outskirts of Lyman, engaging Ukrainian troops along Partizanskaya and Vishnyovaya streets. The zone remains contested, but the rapid infiltration of small Russian groups into the city’s outer neighbourhoods has shifted the front line closer to the urban perimeter than at any point since mid-2022. Ukrainian defenders are reportedly repositioning to prevent encirclement, maintaining defensive pockets inside the forest belt between the Zherebets River and Krasnolymansky-2 sand quarry.

South of the city, Russian units have cleared much of Yampol, a settlement that had long threatened the 25th Army’s logistical corridor. The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces toward Dibrova and Ozerne suggests a strategic regrouping to form a new defensive arc along interconnected strongpoints. Control over this area is vital — it secures the Russian right flank and re-opens limited access routes for troop rotation and ammunition flow along the Donets River. Expect further attacks in direction to sever or slow the main supply road linking Siversk and Lyman. 

According to Russian sources, the advance was underpinned by a deliberate interdiction campaign. Russian drone teams have systematically targeted Ukrainian field depots and supply convoys, extending Kyiv’s logistical chain deeper westward and weakening its ability to sustain the front. OSINT visuals confirm multiple strikes on transport vehicles within forest roads north of Sviati Hory.

Still, the situation inside Lyman remains fluid. Russian troops in the city operate as light assault detachments without heavy armour, suggesting reconnaissance-in-force rather than a full-scale storming operation. Ukrainian sources describe these incursions as “probing actions” designed to test defences before reserves are committed. While the DRG units are present, much like they were in Pokrovsk and now Kostiantinivka, this seems like a much stronger presence than in the latter. However, these are fluid times and we cannot guarantee anything given the nature of this small-scale warfare. 

If Russia consolidates its foothold within the eastern quarters, it could position itself for a push toward the city centre and exploit the corridor north toward Novoselivka. But as of now, Lyman sits in a precarious grey zone, the forest still smouldering with close-range firefights and both sides trading control of trenches carved into the sacred slopes of the Holy Mountains. We did mention that the effects of moving troops to the Dobropillya salient. As Ukraine mounts successful attacks to the west of the salient, other fronts are seemingly suffering. We’re not seeing Russian advances just in Lyman – but in Kupiansk (east of the Oskil river), the Donetsk-Zaporzhzhia border and at Kostiantinvka.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
Rybar, Officer Ukraine, Suriyak, ISW.

TWEET OF THE DAY

He did it again…(IYKYK) 🎃🎃

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 31, 1517): Luther's Ninety-five Theses posted

According to tradition, Martin Luther this day in 1517 posted on a church door in Wittenberg, Germany, his Ninety-five Theses, a manifesto that turned a protest about an indulgence scandal into the Protestant Reformation.