THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From a tentative reopening at Gaza’s Rafah crossing and a decisive election result in Costa Rica, to a deadly counter-offensive in Pakistan, today’s headlines move quickly across borders and fault lines.

We’re also tracking protests abroad over Iran’s unrest and fresh alignment between Moscow and Beijing on Taiwan.

In Today’s deep dive, we examine what may be a swap in consolidation, as Russia aims to take the villages that sit to the east of the Oskil, while Ukraine solidifies it's control over the city.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Gaza’s Rafah crossing to reopen for Palestinians on Monday, Israel says
Israel has announced that the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt will reopen on Monday, allowing limited movement of Palestinian civilians in both directions for the first time in nearly two years after being largely closed since May 2024 under Israeli military control. The move follows a pilot phase and will initially permit pedestrian passage for pre-approved Gaza residents, coordinated with Egypt and supervised by the European Union. Priority is expected to be given to wounded or sick Palestinians needing medical care abroad and to Gazans who fled early in the war seeking to return, with only small numbers allowed to cross initially.
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2. Right-win candidate Laura Fernandez wins Costa Rica presidential race
Laura Fernández of the Sovereign People’s Party (PPSO) has won Costa Rica’s presidential election in the first round, surpassing the 40 % threshold needed to avoid a runoff with about 88 % of ballots counted, according to provisional results. Fernández, a former minister and chief of staff to outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, campaigned on a hard-line security agenda in response to rising crime and has pledged to continue many of his policies. Her closest rival, centrist economist Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party, finished with roughly one-third of the vote and conceded defeat, while Fernández’s party is also poised to expand its representation in the Legislative Assembly.
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3. Pakistan forces kill 145 militants in two-day battle after wave of attacks
Pakistani security forces killed 145 militants over a 40-hour counter-offensive in Balochistan following a wave of coordinated gun and bomb attacks that killed at least 48 people across multiple districts, provincial officials said. The banned separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the province-wide assaults, which targeted hospitals, schools, markets and security installations under a campaign it called Herof, or “black storm.”
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4. Thousands rally in Toronto to support Iran uprising, call for regime change
Thousands of people gathered in downtown Toronto on Sunday to rally in solidarity with protesters in Iran, waving Iranian flags and calling for the fall of the Islamic Republic amid sweeping unrest in the Middle Eastern country. Demonstrators filled Sankofa Square and marched through the city demanding regime change and international intervention, and some voiced support for figures such as exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi as part of broader calls for political transformation.
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5. Shoigu says Russia supports China’s position on Taiwan
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu reiterated Moscow’s firm support for China’s position on Taiwan during talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, saying Russia opposes Taiwanese independence and views the island as an inseparable part of China. Shoigu criticised what he described as efforts by “ill-wishers” to destabilise the Taiwan Strait and affirmed that the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing all of China.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE BATTLE FOR KUPIANSK ENTERS A NEW STAGE

Recent reporting on the Kupyansk axis reflects a sharp contrast between territorial control and tactical activity, driven largely by differences in source methodology and bias. Earlier reporting citing deep Russian infiltrations around Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi originated from AMK Mapping, a comparatively neutral and mechanically consistent mapper that prioritises terrain interaction, movement vectors, and confirmed contact over political signalling. AMK assessed that Russian forces conducted deep assault and reconnaissance penetrations, including temporary entry into northern streets of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, alongside broader gains east of the city—most notably entrenched positions in Petropavlivka, crossings of tributaries of the Hnylytsya River, and expansion into forest belts south of Kucherivka and much of Podoly, now assessed as grey-zone. Net change was estimated at ~3.45 km² in Russia’s favour.

By contrast, DeepState and the Institute for the Study of War (both openly pro-Ukrainian and historically slower to acknowledge adverse developments) state that Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi remains fully under Ukrainian control. Their reporting emphasises that Russian presence consisted of small sabotage and reconnaissance groups detected and eliminated, including a confirmed attempt by elements of Russia’s 153rd Tank Regiment to stage a symbolic flag-raising for information effects.

Taken together, these assessments are not mutually exclusive. AMK’s reporting reflects temporary penetration and freedom of movement, while DeepState and ISW focus on durable control and force retention. The evidence suggests Russian forces are capable of deep probing and local disruption, but have not yet translated these actions into sustained control inside Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi itself.

Strategic Context — The Oskil “Swap” Theory
Months ago, we assessed that Russia’s initial entry into Kupyansk placed it in a structurally vulnerable position. The advance formed a salient flanked on both west and east, with the Oskil River anchoring Ukraine’s eastern defensive depth. Critically, Russia failed to secure decisive control over territory east of the river, where Ukrainian resistance remained resilient and prevented consolidation. Russia pressed on the advantage, assessing the reward outweighed the risks – but as history showed, the risks won. Russia’s fragile supply route was cut, and those units in the city were either captured, killed or retreated through the swampy cold Oskil.

Following Ukraine’s counterattack and Russia’s subsequent withdrawal from the city, we suggested a potential strategic “swap” might take place: Ukraine would prioritise holding Kupyansk proper on the western bank, in turn meaning it would have to divert resources which meant the eastern settlements would suffer. This would then give Russia a shift effort toward consolidating settlements east of the Oskil, reducing exposure and straightening its line – thus completing the swap.

Current developments increasingly resemble this model. Russian pressure east and southeast of Kupyansk, combined with probing rather than committing inside the city, suggests an attempt to stabilise the eastern bank first. Whether this evolves into a durable realignment will depend on Russia’s ability to consolidate gains and suppress Ukrainian counteraction along the river line. And historically, if there are multiple deep breaches as we see here, it suggests Ukrainian lines are extremely thinned out prompting the idea they may have withdrawn. But we shall see.


Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

LOL perhaps being ‘locked in’ wasn’t cool back then…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 2, 1990): Ban on African National Congress lifted

On this day in 1990, South African President F.W. de Klerk lifted the 30-year ban on the African National Congress, resulting in the release from prison of Nelson Mandela and marking the beginning of the end of apartheid.