THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From a U.S. government shutdown in Washington to Congo’s dramatic sentencing of former President Joseph Kabila, the past day has brought no shortage of developments.

We also cover major defence moves in South Korea and Australia, youth-led protests shaking Morocco, and what these shifts might mean globally.

Today we go back to the frontlines in Ukraine, as we go over some key gains that Russia has made in the Donetsk region. As well as clarrifying information on the famous Dobropillya salient.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. U.S. Government shuts down after Democrats refuse to back funding plan
The U.S. government shut down at midnight after Senate Democrats refused to support a Republican funding plan that excluded healthcare extensions, a standoff triggered by demands for ACA subsidies and Medicaid reversals. With both parties unable to pass continuing resolutions, federal agencies not deemed essential began halting operations, and many workers faced unpaid furloughs. The impasse marks the first shutdown since 2018-2019 and fuels blame games as Washington braces for fallout.
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2. Congo sentences former President Kabila to death for treason
A military court in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has sentenced former President Joseph Kabila to death in absentia, finding him guilty of treason, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, including murder, torture, and insurrection, over his alleged collaboration with the M23 rebel group. The verdict also orders Kabila to pay tens of billions of dollars in damages to the state and affected provinces; however, he has denied the accusations and challenged the legitimacy of the trial. Kabila’s whereabouts remain unknown.
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3. U.S. approves sale of HIMARS mobile rocket systems to Australia
The U.S. State Department has approved a potential Foreign Military Sale of M142 HIMARS rocket systems and related equipment to Australia, valued at about $705 million, the Pentagon confirmed. The sale would mark a significant upgrade to Australia’s long-range strike capabilities and deepen defence interoperability with Washington. The deal still requires final approval by the U.S. Congress before becoming official.
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4. Morocco rocked by violent clashes as youths protest health & education system
Protests led by youth have erupted in at least 11 Moroccan cities, with demonstrators demanding better healthcare and education systems amid anger over perceived government neglect. Many protesters also criticized big ticket spending on stadiums for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, chanting slogans like “Stadiums are here, but where are the hospitals?” Security forces have responded with arrests, especially in cities such as Rabat, Casablanca, Agadir, Tangier and Oujda, while the government has defended its actions and expressed willingness to engage in dialogue.
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5. South Korea to increase defence budget by 8.2% next year
South Korea will increase its defence budget by 8.2% next year, bringing the total to around 66.3 trillion won (roughly $47 billion), President Lee Jae Myung announced. The boost is the largest in seven years and aims to fuel purchases of advanced systems like drones, AI-powered robots, and cutting-edge reconnaissance platforms. This rise comes amid a push for greater military self-reliance, as Seoul seeks to shoulder more of its security burden even while maintaining ties with the U.S.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

RUSSIA MAKES GAINS ON THE DONETSK FRONT AS THE DOBROPILLYA FOG OF WAR CLEARS UP

SIVERSK
Interestingly, it was ISW that first showed Russian forces beginning to encircle Siversk. Why is this notable? Because ISW is widely regarded as biased toward Ukraine — and has a poor track record in mapping events when things go south for Ukraine, a point acknowledged by both pro-Ukrainian and Russian commentators.

According to ISW:
Russian forces made limited advances around Siversk at the end of September. Geolocated footage from September 30 confirmed movement northeast of Dronivka, though earlier Russian claims of progress into southern Zvanivka were disproven by strike footage from September 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense additionally claimed that elements of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade captured the small Soviet-era settlement of “Maly Siversk” northeast of Dronivka, though this remains unverified. Milbloggers also suggested advances north of Vyimka and into the southern outskirts of Zvanivka. On September 30, Russian attacks were reported on multiple approaches to Siversk: northwest near Dronivka, northeast near Serebryanka, east near Novoselivka, and southwest near Fedorivka. Meanwhile, drone operators from the Russian 88th Motorized Rifle Brigade have been active against Ukrainian positions in Zvanivka.

While AMK_Mapping has shown a more cautious approach. Russian forces collapsed part of Ukraine’s northern defenses outside Siversk, forcing a withdrawal from Serebryanka and advancing through Dronivka toward the chalk quarry, while also securing the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and aligning the front along the Donetsk–Luhansk border.

After the Russians finally secured the Serebryanka forests, their expansion southwest became almost guaranteed, as the forests sit on elevated terrain overlooking Siversk. Most importantly, if ISW’s map is accurate, Russian units have crossed the river. Should they establish a launchpad on the western side, Ukrainian positions in Siversk could be placed at critical risk.

LYMAN
Russian forces continued advancing on the Lyman axis, making gains in and around Zarichne and securing new ground along the forests south of the village. They pushed into southern houses of Zarichne from their Zherebets River bridgehead, linking positions and clearing much of the grey zone, while also consolidating control over agricultural buildings on the western outskirts and pressing northwest toward Myrne. Further north and west, Russian assaults expanded around Karpivka, Shandryholove, and toward Stavky, while treeline positions were taken in multiple directions.

Geolocated footage indicates Ukraine recently retook ground east of Karpivka, and Ukrainian counterattacks are reported south of Zarichne, highlighting the fluid nature of the front. Russia has committed significant assets, with the 67th Motorized Rifle Division (25th CAA, MMD) credited with progress in Zarichne, while elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) reportedly seized Shandryholove. Defense Minister Belousov also highlighted the role of the 37th Assault Detachment in operations inside Zarichne.

Once Zarichne is fully secured, a direct path toward Lyman will open — something not seen in years. Russian forces are likely to encounter entrenched Ukrainian defenses in the treelines between the fields as they advance. As we’ve noted before, capturing Lyman would be significant, but ultimately just another step on the road to Sloviansk. Even if Lyman falls, Russia would still need to fight through dense forests, cross the river, and establish a foothold to the west — a task that will be extremely difficult.

DOBROPILLYA / BUNNY EARS / SHAKOV SALIENT
Whilst at the famous bunny ears, there is more clarification about the frontline situation there. On the Shakhov front, the past two days saw Ukrainian forces regain several positions east of Novotoretske as they push to sever the final supply route of the Shakhove salient near Nykanorivka. Meanwhile, Russian troops have pressed forward east of Sofiivka. At the same time, Russian forces moved to secure the salient’s lifeline, re-establishing control over parts of western Mayak and central Novotoretske to reinforce the supply corridor into Shakhove.

The situation remains highly fluid, with the main battles focused on the last supply route linking the salient to the wider Russian front. 

Russian forces pressed north from the western flank of Kostyantynivka (east of Shakove) toward Druzhkivka, advancing across both the tactical heights and the low-lying ground. They also pushed along the Poltavka River, taking new positions in the forest plantations around the reservoir. We have stated previously this is a front to keep an eye on. As this salient not only puts Shakove at risk but also Kostyantynivka. Furthermore, much of the Russian reinforcements from Kherson are in this area. 

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
Map: ISW, Suriyak, AMK,
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.016396402757636%2C37.85255448147039&z=12
Units: @UnitObservor on X
Information: Deepstate, ISW, Suryiyak, various telegrams.

TWEET OF THE DAY

New war on Netflix incoming…?

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 1, 1949): People's Republic of China established

In Beijing, with most of the Chinese mainland held by the communist People's Liberation Army, its dynamic leader, Mao Zedong, proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China on this day in 1949.