THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

In today’s newsletter, we look at Taiwan’s upcoming recall vote and the unusual role China is playing in the lead-up. Argentina makes a quiet shift on visas to deepen ties with Beijing, while Europe heads into back-to-back summits with Japan and China, each carrying very different expectations.

We also touch on fresh missile tensions between Israel and the Houthis, and Ukraine’s growing defence budget for 2025.

For the deep dive; Russian forces infiltration in Pokrovsk with many now questioning just how long Ukrainian defence can last.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. China rallies for opposition as Taiwan gears up for mass parliamentary recall
As Taiwan prepares for a landmark recall vote on July 26, Chinese officials and state-affiliated media have thrown their weight behind the opposition Kuomintang, calling the campaign against them politically motivated and dubbing it “green terror”. The DPP and civic groups argue the recalls target lawmakers seen as compromising Taiwan’s democracy and defence posture, especially budget cuts and Beijing-friendly stances, while the KMT insists the process is illegitimate and driven by partisan hostility.  With as many as 24 opposition legislators on the line, the recall could dramatically shift parliamentary control back to the ruling DPP if turnout thresholds are met.
read more

2. Argentina loosens visa requirement for Chinese citizens
Argentina announced on Monday that Chinese citizens holding valid U.S. entry visas will now be able to visit for tourism or business without needing a separate Argentine visa as part of a move to strengthen ties with Beijing and boost tourism and investment.  President Javier Milei’s administration emphasised that removing these visa hurdles is aimed at "deactivating" barriers to economic growth, particularly in the tourism sector. The policy reflects Argentina’s deepening economic relationship with China while stemming from reciprocal visa-free access offered by China earlier this year.
read more

3. Yemen’s Houthis claim missile attack targeting Israeli airport
Yemen’s Houthi militants said on Tuesday they fired a ballistic missile aimed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv, prompting air raid sirens across multiple regions. The Israeli military confirmed the missile was intercepted, with no immediate reports of casualties or damage. The launch comes in direct response to Israel’s airstrikes on Houthi positions in Hodeidah port the day before, reflecting an expanding theatre of conflict centered on Red Sea security and regional solidarity over Gaza.
read more

4. EU expects little from China Summit & eyes deeper Japan ties
European leaders are heading to Tokyo and Beijing this week, carrying strong hopes for enhanced defense and trade cooperation with Japan, while expectations for a productive summit in China remain modest at best. In Tokyo, both sides are aiming to deepen strategic alignment and economic ties amid growing concern over regional security and U.S. trade volatility. But when EU officials meet Xi Jinping and Li Qiang in Beijing, most anticipate a low‑yield dialogue focused on longstanding disputes rather than major breakthroughs.
read more

5. Ukraine needs at least $120 billion for defence next year, minister says
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Tuesday that Kyiv will need at least $120 billion for defence spending next year to sustain its war effort against Russia, a major increase from current levels. He added that Ukraine is already in talks with NATO and EU partners to secure about $60 billion in external support, roughly half of the total needed. This comes as parliament has approved a domestic boost to defence funding, but external contributions remain critical to meet the ambitious budget and maintain momentum.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

“CATASTROPHIC” SITUATION FOR UKRAINE IN POKROVSK

A catastrophic situation is being described by Pro-Ukrainian organisation, Deepstate. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a critical mop-up operation in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, after Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) infiltrated the southern edge of the city. According to Ukrainian servicemen speaking with Ukrainska Pravda, the incursion began on 17 July, exploiting a gap in Ukraine’s depleted defences.

DeepStateMap confirmed the severity of the breach, revealing that a defending brigade had “run out of infantry,” allowing Russian units to slip in through Zvirove. This tactical failure led to confusion among Ukrainian defenders, triggering several friendly fire incidents as Russian operatives disguised their presence.

By 21 July, Ukrainian sources reported that a mop-up operation was still underway, led by elements of the 155th Separate Mechanised Brigade and the 68th Jaeger Brigade. The goal is to neutralise the remaining DRG elements before they can entrench themselves deeper into the city.

Russian forces reportedly aim to seize Zakhnystnykiv Ukrayiny (Defenders of Ukraine) Street, a key axis in the southern district of Pokrovsk. Analysts previously forecasted a Russian breakthrough in August, but with this escalation, Pokrovsk could fall by the end of July if Ukrainian forces fail to regroup and reinforce.

SITUATION ON THE FLANKS

Updated Deepstate (pro-Ukraine source) map showing Russian forces continue to advance north of Myrnohrad, threatening Ukrainian logistics, and the grey zone is only 12km to Dobropillia.

Russia is aiming to put further pressure on the northern pincer, whilst at the same time creating a buffer for it’s own flanks. Dobropillia is likely the next logistics hub after Pokrovsk, so Russia is aiming to create an early launch platform to go after it.

While in the west, strong Ukrainian resistance continues in Udachne, however Russian units have managed to flank the western part of the village and are increasing attacks.

This isn’t a new strategy.

We’ve seen similar tactics used in Bakhmut, and more recently in Avdiivka. At Bakhmut, the Russians learned the hard way that charging directly into the city without correctly pressing the flanks was a costly mistake. It became the bloodiest battle of the war, as Ukraine was well entrenched in the city and less exposed on the flanks. At the time, Ukraine also had more reservists to reinforce those outer lines.

In Avdiivka, many expected Russia to avoid another Bakhmut-style bloodbath by fully encircling the city. Instead, after months of sustained pressure on the flanks, Ukrainian troops were spread thin. This allowed Russian DRG forces to achieve a breakthrough (through an underground pipe) that allowed for a forward push into the city itself.

We’re likely seeing something similar in Pokrovsk. Russian forces appear to be placing enormous pressure on the flanks, aiming to stretch already thin Ukrainian defences. Ukraine faces a dilemma: it cannot risk encirclement, but also knows that Russia may push through the centre regardless. Ultimately, this comes down to a manpower problem for Ukraine.

Bonus note: We aim to be as unbiased as possible when reporting. When Russia gains ground, we will report on it. When Ukraine gains ground we will report on it too. Right now, the situation across the entire front can be described as worrying for Ukraine. They do not have the manpower to stop Russians gains, thus most of the reporting is centred on Russian advances.

In saying this, like we have said before, Russia does not have the capacity to make large strategic gains.

The first visual proof was gopro footage of the DRG team ambushing a Ukrainian pickup truck. This sent shockwaves across the information space as it showed Russians deep inside the city, well past defences. Video linked below NSFW.

Sources:
Deepstate.com Telegram

Maps: Deepstate

Pravda.com Website

@Squatsons on X

TWEET OF THE DAY

It really seems to be working out for the two groups.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 23, 1943): Under the command of U.S. General George S. Patton, Allied forces captured Palermo in northwestern Sicily, securing a key position that paved the way for the invasion of mainland Italy during World War II.