THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Latin America to the Gulf, it’s another day of cross-border manoeuvring: the U.S. and Ecuador launch joint anti-drug operations, Washington reportedly explores arming Kurdish forces against Tehran, and Saudi Arabia’s critical Ras Tanura oil hub is struck again.

In Iran, preparations are underway for a multi-day farewell ceremony for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while Canada’s Mark Carney looks to deepen trade and defence ties with Australia as middle powers recalibrate in a shifting global order.

In today’s deep dive, we cover the rift between the USA and Spain over the conflict in Iran and the wider issues it causes in Europe.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Ecuador launches joint anti-drug operations with U.S.
The U.S. Southern Command announced that the U.S. and Ecuadorian military forces launched joint operations in Ecuador targeting groups the United States has designated as narco-terrorist organisations as part of broader efforts to combat drug-related violence and organised crime. Southern Command described the actions as “decisive” measures against narcoterrorism, though both governments have kept operational details classified, and Ecuador’s Defence Ministry confirmed the collaboration on social media. General Francis L. Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, praised Ecuador’s armed forces for their commitment.
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2. US planning to arm Kurdish forces to trigger uprising in Iran
U.S. intelligence, including the Central Intelligence Agency, is reportedly working on plans to arm Iranian Kurdish forces, with the aim of helping to spark a popular uprising against Tehran’s government, multiple sources familiar with the discussions told CNN. The Trump administration has held active talks with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about potential military support, and Kurdish militias along the Iraq-Iran border are said to be preparing for a possible ground operation in western Iran.
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3. Iranians to bid farewell to Khamenei in Tehran ceremony
Iranians are set to bid farewell to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a state ceremony beginning Wednesday evening at the Imam Khomeini prayer ground in Tehran, with official reports saying the ritual will extend over three days. The event precedes the planned burial of Khamenei in the holy city of Mashhad, his birthplace and a major Shia pilgrimage site. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has organised the farewell rites amidst official mourning.
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4. ‘The world needs us’: Carney pushes Australia & Canada to deepen trade
Canadian PM Mark Carney is in Australia this week on a strategic Asia-Pacific tour aimed at deepening economic and defence ties with Canberra as part of broader efforts to strengthen partnerships among like-minded “middle powers.” Officials say Canada and Australia plan to expand cooperation across trade, security, critical minerals, maritime defence, and emerging technologies, building on existing intelligence-sharing and investment links. Carney’s visit reflects Ottawa’s push to diversify trade relationships and collaborate more closely on economic and security challenges amid shifting global dynamics.
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5. Ras Tanura hit again as projectile strikes Saudi Aramco facility
Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil facility, one of the kingdom’s most important export hubs, was struck again by an unidentified projectile, according to multiple sources, marking a second incident in days amid regional tensions. The precise target within the Saudi Aramco complex and the extent of any damage or disruption remain unclear, and there has been no immediate official comment detailing casualties or operational impact. This latest strike follows a recent drone attack that forced a temporary shutdown of parts of the vast Ras Tanura facility.
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IRAN-USA CONFLICT DAY 5

As the conflict enters its fifth day, we are seeing a significant decline in Iranian ballistic missile salvos — something we have covered previously. That said, the drone campaign has continued. The reduction in missile launches has allowed air defenses to focus more heavily on intercepting drones. However, this does not necessarily help in the long term; million-dollar interceptor missiles are being used to shoot down drones that cost only $35,000–$50,000 and are relatively simple to produce.

U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue across Iran, striking targets in Tehran, Shiraz, Bushehr, Qom, Tabriz, and Kermanshah, primarily focusing on air defenses and missile launchers. With Iranian air defenses struggling, U.S. and Israeli aircraft and drones are operating with increasing freedom. Much of Iran’s navy has reportedly been sunk, and large parts of its air force destroyed. Continuous strike operations are sustained by aerial refueling tankers circling over Syria and Iraq.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are considering retaliatory strikes inside Iran. Western forces are also increasing deployments: Greek naval and air assets have been sent to support Cyprus’ defense, French Rafale fighters and a frigate have been deployed to the region, UK F-35s are operating from Cyprus, and the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is en route to the Mediterranean.

On the Lebanese front, Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been in combat as Israel orders the evacuation of around 80 villages in southern Lebanon. So far, Hezbollah’s involvement has not had a meaningful impact on the wider conflict. Notably, fighting escalated following unannounced Israeli airstrikes, which drew widespread international condemnation.

Overall, the focus is gradually shifting toward the possibility of regime change on the ground. At present, there is no evidence of a coup or internal uprising that could collapse the regime. The military apparatus and the Revolutionary Guard remain loyal, while protests have largely been subdued. The next few days will be critical. Sources indicate that Israeli and American intelligence has been supplying Kurdish militant groups on Iran-Iraq border. In the last 24 hours, Iran has bombed these sites — as the world watches a possible ground incursion backed by US air support.

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Trump Fury Over Spain Iran Conflict Stance

Spain has pushed back after Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with the country over its refusal to support U.S. military operations linked to strikes on Iran. Madrid made clear that American forces cannot use Spanish bases for attacks on Iran, stressing that the facilities remain under Spanish sovereignty and must operate within existing bilateral agreements and the UN Charter. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also criticised the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, calling them a violation of international law while urging diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Following Spain’s refusal, the U.S. relocated 15 aircraft — including aerial refuelling tankers — from the Rota and Morón bases in southern Spain. Trump responded angrily, saying Spain had been “terrible” and that he had instructed Treasury officials to cut off all trade with the country. Despite the threat, Spain signalled it could manage the economic impact. The U.S. actually ran a $4.8bn trade surplus with Spain in 2025, meaning Washington exports more to Spain than it imports.

Shortly after Germany's Merz said he supports U.S. embargoing Spain, claiming it's to "convince" them to increase NATO spending. Germany’s proposal to support a U.S. trade embargo on Spain to pressure higher NATO spending raises serious concerns. First, it weaponises trade against an EU member, undermining European economic unity and potentially violating EU single market rules. Second, it risks escalating internal divisions within NATO and the EU at a time when alliance cohesion is critical. Third, coercive economic measures could backfire politically in Spain, strengthening domestic opposition to NATO rather than increasing defence spending. Finally, setting a precedent of punitive economic pressure among allies could destabilise transatlantic cooperation and weaken the credibility of Western institutions built on mutual partnership rather than compulsion.

And in legal terms, NATO defence spending is not legally binding, so legally Spain is doing nothing wrong. Overall, the Chancellor's actions do nothing but cause internal division and questions over European dependence on the U.S. 

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 4, 1933): Inauguration of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt

On this day in 1933, in the midst of the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated as the 32nd U.S. president, and later he led the country out of the Depression and to victory in World War II.