Sudanese Forces Recapture Key Border Town

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s edition begins at the Strait of Hormuz, where Washington and Tehran disagree over whether one of the world’s most important waterways is truly open, before reflecting on the death of influential U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham.

We also cover renewed fatalities in Gaza, an abrupt wartime reshuffle in Kyiv and the first sitting of Syria’s new parliament since Bashar al-Assad’s removal.

And in today’s conflict tracker we zoom in on Sudan. As after many months of preparation and difficulties, the SAF have recaptured Kurmuk from RSF and allied forces.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. US insists Strait remains open despite Iran’s declaring it closed as strikes escalate
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice after firing a warning shot at a vessel it said was using an unauthorised route. U.S. Central Command rejected the declaration, saying the waterway remained open and American forces were prepared to protect freedom of navigation as both sides exchanged missile and drone strikes. Commercial traffic nevertheless fell to a five-week low amid heightened security risks, intensifying concerns over disruption to one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
read more 

2. Trump ally and US senator Lindsey Graham dies aged 71
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a prominent ally of President Donald Trump, has died aged 71, with a preliminary medical finding identifying an aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Graham served in Congress for more than three decades and became known as an influential foreign-policy hawk, a strong supporter of Israel and Ukraine, and a central figure in advancing Trump’s judicial appointments. His death temporarily narrows the Republican Party’s effective Senate majority, while South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster is authorised to appoint a replacement for the remainder of Graham’s term.
read more

3. Girl, 9, among at least six killed in Israeli Gaza attacks
Israeli attacks in Gaza killed at least six Palestinians on Sunday, including nine-year-old Tala Abu Matar, according to Palestinian health officials. Officials said the girl was killed by Israeli gunfire at a displacement camp in central Gaza, while four people died in an airstrike on a metalworking facility in Gaza City and another was killed near Khan Younis; Israel said the Gaza City site was used to produce Hamas weapons and that it was unaware of the shooting involving the girl. The violence occurred as Israel and Hamas remained in negotiations over the next phase of their existing ceasefire agreement.
read more

4. Ukraine’s Prime Minister stepping down after only a year, in Zelenskyy reshuffle
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has stepped down after roughly a year in office as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a broader wartime government reshuffle. Zelenskyy has not named her successor but said the leadership changes, which are also expected to affect senior law-enforcement positions, are intended to support a new political strategy. Svyrydenko, an economist who helped negotiate Ukraine’s minerals agreement with the United States before becoming prime minister, said she remained committed to serving the country.
read more

5. Syria’s new parliament holds first session since ouster of ex-President Assad
Syria's new transitional parliament convened in Damascus for its inaugural session, marking the first time the legislature has met since the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024. President Ahmed al-Sharaa urged lawmakers to help build institutions based on accountability and justice, as the 210-member assembly begins operating under a temporary constitution during the country's five-year political transition. While the new parliament has limited legislative powers and many members were selected through regional electoral bodies rather than direct elections, the session represents another milestone in Syria's efforts to rebuild its political institutions after years of conflict.
read more

SUPPORT THE PODCAST!

This week I discuss a wide range of topics from the “Did The U.S. win the Iran War? As Lebanon and Israel sign peace deal behind Hezbollah’s back…”

Watch And Listen On Youtube | or | Listen On Spotify

WEEKLY PREDICTIVE MARKET COMMENTARY

Israel And Lebanon Normalise Relations By…?

READ OUR COMMENTARY HERE

CONFLICT TRACKER

Sudanese Civil War
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have recaptured Kurmuk in Sudan's Blue Nile State following a renewed offensive, marking another significant territorial gain against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Kurmuk is one of the most strategically important towns in southeastern Sudan. Located just west of the Ethiopian border, it controls a key crossing into the Benishangul-Gumuz region and sits along an important logistics corridor linking Blue Nile State with neighbouring Ethiopia. By regaining the town, the SAF strengthens its control over Sudan's eastern frontier while disrupting one of the RSF's remaining border access points.

The development comes as the character of the war continues to evolve. While the SAF has regained territory through conventional offensives, the RSF has increasingly relied on long-range drone strikes targeting military infrastructure, logistics hubs and senior commanders deep inside government-held territory. This shift has allowed the group to retain strategic reach despite losing ground in several sectors. Reports have also suggested some drone operations may be supported by networks or launch sites linked to western Ethiopia, although this remains unconfirmed.

The capture of Kurmuk is therefore more than a local tactical victory. It further consolidates SAF control across Blue Nile State, improves security along the Ethiopian border, and places additional pressure on RSF forces operating in southeastern Sudan. While fighting elsewhere in the country remains intense, the loss of Kurmuk represents another setback for the RSF as the SAF continues its broader campaign to restore control over key population centres, border crossings and logistical routes.

Sources
Available upon request

WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT

Russian Offensive Assessment - June Issue #5

This week we analyse the entire frontline and assess Russia’s overall progression in the month of June. If you were expecting swathes of gains, think again.

SIGN UP TO READ

TWEET OF THE DAY

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 13, 1930): The first World Cup kicks off

On this day in 1930, 13 teams across Europe and the Americas took the field in Montevideo, Uruguay, for the start of the first FIFA World Cup. The two opening matches kicked off simultaneously, and French forward Lucien Laurent scored the first goal in World Cup history—reportedly in falling snow. Uruguay would go on to defeat Argentina to become the first World Cup champions.