THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Syria’s border tensions to shifting alliances in Asia and political tremors in Israel, today’s geopolitical landscape is as fluid as ever.

Israel’s airstrikes in Sweida signal growing regional volatility, while Australia and China cautiously redefine their engagement. Historic returns from space missions, Afghanistan’s unfolding refugee crisis, and a fragile Israeli coalition keep the world’s attention divided.

Meanwhile, our deep dive today explores revelations from Axios that Putin told Trump in a July 3rd call he plans an intensified push to fully seize four key Ukrainian regions within the next 60 days—a move that could redefine the war’s trajectory.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israel strikes Syrian city, vows to protect Druze from government forces
Israel conducted airstrikes against Syrian government forces stationed near the Druze-majority region in Sweida on Tuesday, citing its responsibility to protect the Druze minority and enforce a demilitarized buffer along its border. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasized the deep “brotherly” ties with the Druze community in Israel and vowed to prevent the Syrian regime from threatening the area adjacent to their border. Israel frames its strikes as defensive, aiming to uphold stability within a demilitarized zone, but the surge in military activity highlights the broader sectarian and geopolitical volatility in southern Syria.
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2. Australia and China call for more dialogue and corporation at leaders’ meeting
Australia and China wrapped up a high-stakes leader-level meeting in Beijing where both sides emphasised dialogue and cooperation on a range of fronts. President Xi signalled China’s readiness to deepen trade, AI, and security ties, while Prime Minister Albanese made it clear that Australia’s "cooperate where we can, disagree where we must" policy remains intact, especially regarding national interests. They agreed to future high-level dialogues, including on defence and maritime affairs, and business delegates from both countries explored opportunities across mining, tourism, and green tech. The tone shifted from cautious rapprochement to strategic engagement, setting a blueprint for managing their often delicate relationship.
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3. Astronauts from India, Poland, Hungary return with NASA veteran from space station
India, Poland, and Hungary made history as their astronauts returned from the ISS aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule “Grace,” accompanied by veteran NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson. The Axiom‑4 mission included over 60 microgravity experiments and marks the first spaceflight for these nations in more than four decades, with Shubhanshu Shukla, Slawosz Uznanski‑Wisniewski, and Tibor Kapu all playing key roles in this commercial expedition.
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4. Netanyahu’s government teeters as ultra-Orthodox party quits coalition
Israel's coalition has taken a hit after the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party exited over unresolved conscription exemptions, leaving Prime Minister Netanyahu with a precarious one-seat majority in the Knesset . The split follows tensions over a Supreme Court ruling that ended long-standing military service exemptions for full-time religious seminary students—a move increasingly unpopular amid the Gaza war. The departure triggers a 48-hour window for reconciliation before becoming official, with the ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Hamas adding fresh political pressure
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5. The scale of Afghans returning from Iran is overwhelming, says UN official
Iran has carried out one of the largest mass deportations in recent history, expelling over 1.2 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan so far this year - over 366,000 of them forcibly returned from Iran alone, and 640,000 total from Iran under pressure since March. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has warned the scale and pace of these returns are stretching Afghanistan’s already fragile support systems and creating a “chaotic” humanitarian situation at border points like Islam Qala, with thousands arriving daily.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Trump’s shift in his Ukrainian support policy and what this means on the ground.

Timeline of Events

According to Axios, a phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on July 3rd was the turning point behind Trump’s shift in Ukraine policy. During the call, Putin reportedly stated his intention to intensify efforts to fully occupy Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts within the next 60 days—territory Russia claims as its own.

Roughly a week later, on July 10th, Trump announced a new agreement with NATO members: the United States will sell $10 billion worth of weapons to allied countries, who will then transfer them to Ukraine. Although this was first proposed by Zelenskyy at the NATO Summit. This indirect mechanism allows NATO members to foot the bill while receiving U.S. stockpile replenishments.

By mid-July, Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum to Moscow to agree to a ceasefire. If not, the U.S. will impose 100% “secondary tariffs” on countries such as China and India that continue to import Russian oil—an attempt to constrict Russia’s energy revenues and coerce negotiations.

Current Situation On The Frontline

Russian forces are pressing forward across multiple axes, most notably north of Pokrovsk. Troops have advanced toward the town of Rodynske and are reportedly maneuvering between reservoirs near Chervonyi Lyman, with some entering the Krasnolymanskaya Mine. However, these movements could involve reconnaissance or sabotage units rather than full combat detachments. This is critical, as Rodynske has the main road that supplies Pokrovsk.

While in Toretsk, Russia makes major advances in the direction of west Toretsk. Russian units have taken control of Tavriyskyy and Kvitkova Streets, entered nearby wooded areas, and pushed through the Toretsk Forest. Two treelines southeast of the Terykons have also been cleared. In the villages of Shcherbynivka and Novospaske, Ukrainian troops began a tactical withdrawal to avoid encirclement. Russian units then entered southern Shcherbynivka, moving along Vasylchenka and Dzerzhynskoho Streets.

In Sumy Oblast, Russian momentum has slowed. The 106th and 76th Airborne Divisions remain tied down, with limited territorial gain. Kharkiv continues to see probing Russian incursions—likely diversionary—to pull Ukrainian reserves away from key fronts. Ukrainian forces have also launched limited operations into Russia’s Kursk region.

What Battlefields Matter

If Putin’s 60 day statement is to be taken at face value, the key battlefield is clearly for the Donetsk oblast. The battles for Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and on the side Kupiansk thus remain operationally critical. Putin’s reference to a 60-day window aligns with these territorial objectives.

What Can Realistically Be Achieved

Given the pace of the conflict, expectations for major territorial change within 60 days are likely misplaced. Full control of Donetsk Oblast would require taking Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, neither of which is under imminent threat. Pokrovsk, while currently under considerable risk, has been on Russia’s radar since 2024.

The reality is that little may change in the short term. Whether Putin is misjudging ground conditions or signalling something deeper remains to be seen.

Sources:

Axios - Trump to supply missiles to Ukraine, gives Russia 50-day ultimatum (https://www.axios.com/2025/07/14/trump-missiles-ukraine-weapons-attack-russia)

BBC - Trump threatens Russia with tariffs while unveiling Ukraine weapons plan (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czdv20v9lp1o)

TWEET OF THE DAY

We are in the age of drone warfare after all….

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 15, 2006): Cofounders Jack Dorsey, Evan Williams, and Biz Stone publicly launched their online microblogging service Twitter, and within the following decade it had more than 300 million users.