THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Washington’s latest threat of intervention in Nigeria to Beijing’s surprise purchase of U.S. wheat, global tensions and trade shifts continue to drive headlines.

In Europe, Serbia’s pro-government rally and fresh diplomatic unease in New York highlight how politics and protest remain deeply intertwined.

In today’s deep dive, the internal issues in Syria continue to develop and may go into a full blown war.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria ‘guns blazing’ over killing of Christians
Trump condemned the escalating violence against Christians in Nigeria, where recent massacres have claimed dozens of lives amid ongoing attacks by militants. He accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect its citizens and announced the U.S. designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” for severe religious freedom violations. Threatening to halt all U.S. aid and assistance, Trump warned: “If the killings continue, the USA will go in guns-a-blazing.” He has directed the Pentagon to prepare for potential intervention, emphasizing an “existential threat” to Christian communities.
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2. NYC Fire Chief to quit over Mamdani’s stance on Israel
Robert Tucker, the Fire Commissioner of New York City, has announced his resignation effective December 19, following the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor-elect. According to sources, Tucker’s decision links to his discomfort with Mamdani’s views on Israel and the Jewish community, he is reported to have told colleagues he felt unable to serve under the incoming administration. The move marks the first high-level official departure connected to Mamdani’s transition and underscores how his foreign-policy stances are already affecting city leadership.
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3. South African Gov. received distress calls from 17 men trapped in Ukraine war
South Africa’s government reported that it has received distress calls from 17 of its citizens who joined mercenary forces in Ukraine and are now trapped in the war-torn Donbas region. President Cyril Ramaphosa has ordered an investigation into how these young men were recruited and sent into the conflict zone. The incident highlights a troubling new dimension of the Russia-Ukraine war, where foreign nationals are increasingly drawn into fighting and governments face complex consular and legal challenges.
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4. Thousands gather at pro-Government rally in Serbia
More than 10,000 supporters of Aleksandar Vučić gathered in Belgrade on Wednesday in a major pro-government rally aimed at reaffirming his leadership amid ongoing nationwide unrest. The rally took place against the backdrop of persistent anti-corruption protests triggered by last year’s deadly roof collapse in Novi Sad, with Vučić’s backers waving flags and chanting slogans affirming peace and order. While organisers praised the turnout as the largest of its kind this year, observers noted it still fell short of the tens of thousands who turned out for recent anti-government demonstrations, highlighting the deep polarisation in Serbia’s public sphere.
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5. China buys first U.S. wheat cargoes since 2024 after leaders’ meeting
China has purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat, its first buys since October 2024, totalling around 120,000 tonnes, following a recent meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing also announced that it will remove a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat starting 10 November, signalling a diplomatic thaw in agricultural trade. Traders say the move appears more politically motivated than based on agricultural demand AS U.S. wheat isn’t the most competitively priced, but the purchase serves as a signal of improved bilateral relations.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

New U.S Bases As SDF Prepare For War

Did Not Have A U.S Base In Damascus In My 2025 Bingo Card
The United States plans to establish a military presence at an airbase near Damascus, marking its first official deployment in Syrian government territory. According to Reuters, the move is part of a broader U.S. strategy to support a potential Israel–Syria security pact and create a demilitarised zone in southern Syria. The base, whose precise location remains undisclosed for security reasons, will reportedly be used for logistics, refuelling, and surveillance operations, while Damascus will retain formal sovereignty over the site.

U.S. aircraft have already conducted reconnaissance and runway tests, suggesting preparations for near-term activation. Washington insists the mission aims to stabilise the region and monitor militant activity, though it also signals a major geopolitical shift—Syria, long aligned with Iran and Russia, is now cautiously cooperating with the U.S.

The initiative follows months of quiet negotiations aimed at reducing tensions between Israel and Syria. A formal announcement of the pact was delayed at the UN General Assembly due to unresolved conditions. If realised, the base would extend U.S. influence deeper into the Middle East beyond its Kurdish-backed positions in northeastern Syria, potentially reshaping regional power dynamics and complicating relations with Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

SDF Commander: “We Are Preparing For War”
In a recent interview with local news,  SDF Commander Sipan Hamo’s made some key remark: 

The SDF will not accept returning under the Baathist regime, which he described as totalitarian, fascist, and despotic, even if its leaders now appear “with beards.”

Hamo criticised the Julani regime (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham–linked governance) for equating integration with assimilation and acting unilaterally while blaming the SDF for resisting it.

He dismissed the People’s Assembly elections as a sham, calling them appointments rather than genuine votes.

The April 1st agreement over Aleppo’s Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud districts was labelled an “April Fool’s joke,” implying it was insincere or unfulfilled.

Hamo noted that Julani’s forces do not control all of Syria; the armed Sunni opposition still holds the same territories it did before Assad’s fall.

He highlighted ongoing fragmentation of power, pointing out that Julani’s forces cannot enter areas like Douma without Jaysh al-Islam’s approval.

He rejected portrayals of Syria as stable or unified, arguing it is false to suggest the SDF is the only remaining obstacle to national stability.

Negotiations with the Julani regime are faltering and the SDF is preparing for war.

We will not accept the dismantling of our forces that we have built over the past years, and we are prepared for the worst-case scenarios.

For Hamo, the key message he wants to convey to the public is that Jolani and al-Sharaa do not possess the level of control over Syria that they claim. He is capitalising on the recent tensions involving French and Uzbek jihadists that we discussed earlier. What stands out most is his assertion that al-Sharaa cannot even enter Douma without the approval of another jihadist faction. While this could simply be propaganda aimed at undermining al-Sharaa’s legitimacy, it remains an intriguing and notably specific claim.

The U.S base in Damascus presents two perspectives for the Kurds. One perspective is that now the U.S will be more committed to stability with bases in both camps. The SDF announced that the United States DoD will establish two new military bases in Syria—one near the Tishreen Dam in the north and another near the Syria-Iraq border in the southeast—as part of Washington’s renewed commitment to maintaining around 400 troops in Kurdish-controlled areas. The decision, according to U.S. officials, reflects a tactical repositioning rather than a full withdrawal, aimed at reinforcing stability and ensuring continued pressure on Islamic State remnants. The U.S. has signalled that troop numbers will not fall below the 400-person threshold set by Congress unless local forces demonstrate full operational capability to independently manage the counter-ISIS mission. And now with a base in Damascus the U.S may have more sway to maintain stability in the region. 

The second perspective is that the U.S. is recalibrating its relationships in the region. A shift from the al-Tanf military base to the capital, Damascus, could signal who Washington now favours. Geopolitically, the new Syrian government wields far greater diplomatic influence than the Kurds, who have historically faced repeated betrayals from their allies. Given that pattern, it is unsurprising that the Kurds appear to be preparing for the possibility of war.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Peak comedy 😂 

TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 6, 1860): Abraham Lincoln elected president of the United States

On this day in 1860, Americans elected as their president Abraham Lincoln, whose victory led to the secession of Southern states and the long and bloody Civil War that lasted until 1865 and ended slavery in the U.S.