The Battle For Kostiantynivka Explained

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines are a reminder that geopolitics rarely slows down for anyone; with fresh U.S. strikes inside Iran, South Korea accelerating its military ambitions beneath the sea, and Australia once again confronting the long shadow of ISIS-linked detainees returning home.

Elsewhere, the Vatican is stepping directly into the AI debate through a new partnership with Anthropic, while Belgium is dealing with a major tragedy after a train collided with a school bus during the morning commute.

In today’s deep dive we put the spotlight on Kostiantynivka. Which is increasingly in a critical condition, as Russian troops continue to flank and infiltrate Ukrainian lines, today we use three varying sources to provide the best information on the ground.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. The US military has carried out new strikes on targets in Southern Iran
The U.S. military said it carried out new “self-defence” strikes against targets in southern Iran, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats allegedly attempting to lay naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said the strikes were launched to protect American forces and commercial shipping in the region following what it described as continued threats from Iranian military assets, while Iranian media reported explosions near Bandar Abbas and other coastal areas.
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2. Pope Leo announces collaboration with Anthropic on AI ethics
Pope Leo XIV has announced a new collaboration with Anthropic focused on developing ethical frameworks and safeguards for artificial intelligence, marking one of the Vatican’s most direct engagements with the rapidly growing sector. The initiative will reportedly bring together Vatican officials, ethicists and technology experts to examine issues including AI governance, misinformation, labour disruption and the moral risks associated with advanced artificial intelligence systems. The move highlights increasing global concern over AI regulation and comes as governments, religious institutions and major technology firms race to shape international standards around the technology’s future development.
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3. Islamic State-linked women and children return to Sydney and Melbourne
A second group of Australian women and children with alleged links to the Islamic State has arrived in Sydney and Melbourne after leaving the al-Roj detention camp in northeastern Syria, where many foreign IS families have been held since the collapse of the group’s territorial caliphate. Australian authorities said security and intelligence agencies had monitored the return process for years, with Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke warning that any individuals suspected of criminal offences or extremist activity would face investigation and potential prosecution upon arrival.
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4. South Korea plans to launch first nuclear-powered submarine by mid-2030s
South Korea announced plans to launch its first domestically built nuclear-powered submarine by the mid-2030s as Seoul moves to strengthen its naval capabilities against growing North Korean missile and submarine threats. Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back said the submarines would use low-enriched uranium fuel and be developed in cooperation with the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure compliance with non-proliferation rules. The program is expected to significantly expand South Korea’s underwater endurance and operational reach, while also accelerating a broader regional naval competition involving China, North Korea and the United States.
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5. Train hits school bus in Belgium, several feared dead
Several people are feared dead after a passenger train collided with a school bus at a level crossing in the Belgian town of Buggenhout, north of Brussels, prompting a major emergency response on Tuesday morning. Belgian authorities said the crash occurred during the morning school commute, with emergency crews, police and medical helicopters deployed to the scene as rescue operations continued throughout the day. Officials have not yet confirmed the full number of casualties, while investigators are examining the circumstances surrounding the collision and whether the crossing safety systems were functioning correctly at the time of the crash.
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Conflict Tracker

Russia-Ukraine

Kostiantynivka is increasingly beginning to resemble the later stages of the Pokrovsk fighting pattern, where gradual Russian infiltration tactics are combining with sustained aerial pressure to slowly erode Ukrainian defensive cohesion inside the city itself. Across multiple independent and partisan-aligned sources, there is broad agreement that the frontline situation has continued to deteriorate over the past week, particularly on the southern and southwestern approaches.

According to Suriyak’s mapping, Russian forces have expanded their presence across several districts in the southern half of the city, including advances through the Tabachna factory area, the industrial landfill, and much of Stara Santurynivka. Additional movement reportedly occurred in the east through the Hora district and along Bahmutska Street toward the school on Mykhaila Savchuka Street, while Russian troops also pushed through the Hruzka forest area toward Teatralna Street near the central market. While Suriyak is generally viewed as more sympathetic toward Russian reporting, many of the broader territorial trends align with other battlefield observations.

Playfra’s assessment provides more detail on how these advances are occurring operationally. Rather than relying purely on mass frontal assaults, Russian infantry groups appear to be exploiting urban density, forest cover, basements, and destroyed infrastructure to conduct continuous infiltration operations. On the northeastern side, Russian units reportedly move through wooded areas east of the city before filtering into the Hora district and Staryi Piter. In the southwest, infiltration routes from Berestok and Perspektyva reportedly feed directly into residential districts such as Chervone Mistechko and Ukrainskiy Khutir. The description strongly mirrors previous Russian tactics seen around Pokrovsk, where small assault groups used dense urban terrain to slowly “flood” contested areas faster than Ukrainian forces could fully clear or isolate them.

A major factor worsening the situation appears to be Russia’s growing control over the air domain directly above and around the city. Ukrainian positions are reportedly under constant pressure from FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs, glide bombs, and artillery strikes targeting logistics and rear-area movement. The repeated shelling of high-rise districts and supply routes in northern Kostiantynivka is likely intended not only to destroy infrastructure, but to fragment Ukrainian defensive coordination and create conditions for further infiltration.

ISW’s analysis adds an important strategic layer. Russian redeployments of naval infantry and VDV formations suggest Moscow is prioritising the wider Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk axis despite simultaneous pressure across other sectors of the front. However, ISW also notes that Russia likely lacks the manpower and operational capacity to sustain large-scale offensives everywhere simultaneously. Even so, the concentration of relatively elite formations in this sector indicates that Kostiantynivka remains one of Russia’s central operational objectives for the current phase of the war.

ISW

Sources
Available upon request

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 26, 1940): The British and Allied Forces Escape at Dunkirk

On this day in 1940, during World War II, the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) began its evacuation of British and Allied troops from the French seaport of Dunkirk. Adolf Hitler's baffling order to halt forces near a line of canals some 15 miles from the city provided a window of opportunity for Allied troops to escape via the English Channel. Nearly 8,000 troops were evacuated in the first 24 hours, and the tempo increased dramatically over subsequent days. While the Royal Air Force patrolled the skies, some 700 civilian craft (the “little ships” of Dunkirk) joined the rescue effort. In the end, 338,226 Allied troops were ferried to safety in England.