The Big China - U.S. Talks: What To Expect

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Diplomacy is in full swing today; with Trump heading to Beijing for a closely watched summit with Xi Jinping, senior U.S. and Chinese officials holding behind-the-scenes talks in South Korea, and BRICS foreign ministers gathering in New Delhi against the backdrop of rising global tensions.

Meanwhile, political pressure is building closer to home for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while Russia’s Sergey Lavrov is making it clear that relations between Moscow and Washington remain firmly stuck in the deep freeze despite ongoing ceasefire efforts in Ukraine.

And in today’s deep dive, we take a look at Trump arriving with various CEO's to one of the biggest meetings this century in Beijing.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump departs to Beijing for summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping
Trump has departed for Beijing ahead of a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade, Taiwan, and the conflict involving Iran expected to dominate discussions between the two leaders. Trump said he expects “good things” to come from the visit and downplayed differences with Beijing over the Iran conflict, despite growing concerns in Washington about China’s role in regional diplomacy and global energy security. The summit marks Trump’s first visit to China since returning to office and comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.
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2. Bessent and China’s He hold talks in South Korea ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held closed-door talks in South Korea ahead of this week’s high-stakes summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. The discussions focused on trade, supply chains, critical minerals, and broader economic tensions between the world’s two largest economies, with analysts viewing the meeting as an effort to stabilise relations rather than deliver any immediate breakthrough.
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3. India to host BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meet in New Delhi on May 14-15
India will host the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi on May 14–15, bringing together senior diplomats from the expanded bloc amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting global economic dynamics. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is expected to chair discussions focused on global governance reform, trade, energy security, and conflicts including the ongoing Iran crisis, with ministers from countries including Russia, Iran, Brazil, South Africa, and the UAE set to attend. The meeting comes as India seeks to position itself as a leading voice of the Global South during its 2026 BRICS chairmanship, while also navigating internal divisions within the bloc over issues such as Iran and relations with the West.
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4. UK PM Starmet meets rival Streeting amid pledge to carry on governing  
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Health Secretary Wes Streeting amid growing speculation over internal Labour Party tensions, as Starmer pledged his government would “carry on governing” despite mounting political pressure. The meeting followed reports of disagreements within senior Labour ranks over economic policy, NHS reforms, and the government’s handling of slowing growth and public sector disputes. Downing Street sought to project unity after the talks, with Starmer insisting the government remains focused on delivering its domestic agenda ahead of a challenging parliamentary session.
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5. Russia’s Lavrov says ‘nothing is happening’ with US-Russia relations  
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “nothing is happening” in relations between Moscow and Washington, signalling continued stagnation despite recent U.S.-backed ceasefire efforts in Ukraine and limited diplomatic engagement between the two countries. Lavrov accused the United States of maintaining a confrontational approach toward Russia, while reiterating Moscow’s position that meaningful progress remains impossible without changes to Western sanctions and military support for Kyiv.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

China Summit
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week for his first visit to China since 2017, sitting down with President Xi Jinping for two days of talks that carry significant weight for both leaders, though analysts are tempering expectations of any sweeping breakthrough.

The summit was originally scheduled for March but was pushed back after the United States became embroiled in war with Iran, a conflict that has rattled global energy markets and given Beijing a degree of quiet leverage heading into the meetings. China is Iran's largest trade partner and top buyer of its oil, meaning Washington needs Beijing's cooperation to bring any resolution to the conflict closer.

In my opinion, if you want to know what will be discussed simply take a look at the seating arrangement. Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Larry Fink are among the business executives accompanying the president, alongside Boeing and Mastercard CEOs, signalling the commercial stakes attached to the relationship. So trade will likely be the headline item. Experts anticipate both sides will look to formalise agreements, potentially including Chinese purchases of American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, building on the truce the two leaders struck at a sideline meeting in Busan, South Korea, last October. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signalled the administration is seeking stability rather than a reset, which broadly sums up the tone of the summit.

Taiwan and artificial intelligence are also on the table, with Beijing expected to press Washington on arms sales to Taipei. Trump said before departing that he intended to raise the issue directly with Xi, a move analysts say will be closely watched for any shift in U.S. posture. The Council on Foreign Relations described the summit as an effort to stabilise ties rather than resolve the fundamental tensions between the two powers, a characterisation that likely suits both sides heading in.

The Iran Question
The Iran war sits awkwardly at the centre of this summit, shaping the dynamic between Washington and Beijing without either side holding all the cards. Trump is expected to press Xi to use China's considerable influence over Tehran to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. China has so far kept its distance from the conflict directly, but hosted Iran's foreign minister in Beijing just days before Trump's arrival, a signal of its continued diplomatic engagement with both sides.

Beijing's leverage is real. China absorbs roughly half of Iran's oil exports, and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has damaged Chinese shipping and crude imports significantly, giving Xi his own reasons to want the conflict wound down. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed ahead of the summit that China provided assurances it would not transfer weapons to Iran, which the administration credited to the personal relationship between the two leaders. This is where the big question regarding Netanyahu’s statement on China assisting Iran – they have not directly supplied weapons but have supplied the materials for missiles, radar systems and Chinese satellite imagery. That assurance was considered a prerequisite for the meeting going ahead at all according to Hegseth.


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