THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It was another eventful night across global politics, with the U.S. expanding its controversial maritime campaign in the Caribbean and Trump making a major energy policy exception for Hungary.

Meanwhile, tensions in Eastern Europe and South Asia continue to climb, from a reshuffle inside the Kremlin to the collapse of Pakistan–Afghanistan peace talks. And in Tunisia, opposition figures are taking dramatic steps to protest the government’s deepening crackdown.

In today’s deep dive, we’re breaking down Russia’s encirclement of Pokrovsk and the shifting frontline dynamics around Myrnohrad and Dobropillya.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. U.S. Military carries out another strike on vessel in Caribbean, killing 3
Hegseth announced that the U.S. military carried out another strike on a vessel in the Caribbean, resulting in the deaths of three men aboard, saying the boat was linked to narcotics trafficking. He claimed the operation, ordered by Donald Trump, was conducted in international waters and targeted a vessel operated by a “Designated Terrorist Organization.” While the U.S. said no American forces were harmed, human‐rights groups and regional governments have raised serious concerns about the transparency, legality and deadly toll of this striking pattern of maritime operations.
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2. Trump grants Hungary exemption on Russian oil in Orban win
Trump has granted Viktor Orbán a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports, allowing Hungary to continue pipeline deliveries via TurkStream and Druzhba despite Washington’s broader push against Moscow. In exchange, Hungary pledged to purchase around US $600 million in U.S. liquefied natural gas and embark on a nuclear-fuel cooperation deal with the U.S. The move signals a shift in U.S. sanctions policy and highlights how energy-security concerns are reshaping alliances even amidst the war in Ukraine.
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3. Putin appoints deputy defense minister Bulyga to security council
Putin has appointed Andrei Bulyga as Deputy Secretary of Russia’s powerful Security Council of the Russian Federation, according to a decree published on the Kremlin’s website. The move comes as Russia continues to face mounting criticism over its war performance in Ukraine and ongoing corruption scandals in the defence ministry. The elevation of a logistics chief to a top national-security body signals a possible shift in Kremlin priorities towards streamlining supply chains and management amid Russia’s broader military and economic challenges.
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4. Pakistan-Afghanistan peace talks in Istanbul fail amid rising border tensions
Talks in Istanbul between Pakistan and Afghanistan ended without a breakthrough as both sides blamed the other for the impasse, leaving the cease-fire reached in October hanging by a thread. Pakistan accused Afghanistan’s leadership of shirking its responsibility to curb the Tehrik‑e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, while Kabul insisted it lacked control over the group and denounced Islamabad’s cross-border strikes as violations of its sovereignty. With border bombings, drone strikes and military skirmishes already escalating, Islamabad’s warning of “open war” if no deal is reached suggests the region risks sliding back into full-scale conflict.
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5. Tunisian opposition figures join hunger strike to support jailed politician
Several prominent Tunisian opposition figures have launched a collective hunger strike in solidarity with jailed politician Jawhar Ben Mbarek, whose health is reported to have deteriorated after nine days without food. The move reflects growing frustration among critics of Kais Saied’s government, which they accuse of eroding democratic checks and imprisoning opponents on political-security charges. The standoff highlights deepening tensions in Tunisia as the regime faces mounting scrutiny from rights groups over justice, imprisonment and the narrowing space for dissent.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

The Pokrovsk for Dobropillya swap

For the first time, Pokrovsk is not fully controlled by Ukraine. According to AMK mapping, Russian forces control about 95% of the city, while the remainder is a fluid grey zone.

Most of the fighting has taken place at the two pincers that cut off Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Kalibrated Maps was the first to call a complete encirclement, while other milbloggers were more cautious. What we do know for certain is that the 800–1,000m gap is directly under Russian fire control.

Whatever Ukrainian defenders remain in Myrnohrad are effectively surrounded, even if Russian troops are not physically present everywhere, drones and artillery have the area dialled in.

Milbloggers also claim that Ukrainian defenders in the north-east high-rises have either surrendered or been eliminated. The small group was besieged in a block of high-rises after losing its role as a blocking force for Russia’s southern pincer.

Russia has begun to expand the flanks of its pincers from both north and south. In the south, after securing the high-rises we discussed earlier, forces have pushed east to consolidate by taking the village of Rivne. To the north, Russians consolidated a pig farm and have begun further operations southward toward Svitle, where both sides are expected to meet.

On the easternmost front line of Myrnohrad no changes have been recorded, although we expect that to change in the coming days as combing operations continue to secure full control of the town.

Why would the Russians need to take Myrnohrad so soon? Further north at the Dobropillya salient, the situation is troublesome for Russian forces. Ukraine has continued to capitalise on its previous counter-offensive here with additional gains. Attempts by Russian forces to take Shakove are now very limited, as they have withdrawn south of the key treelines and the quarries south of Kucheriv Yar. That has put significant pressure on the Russian northern pincer around Shakove and, if they cannot counterattack, we should expect further retreats.

To the southwest, despite significant Russian airstrikes, their forces are now falling back to the key villages of Pankivka and Mayak at the heart of the Russian salient. All forward positions near Nove Shakove appear to have been lost.

We’re seeing two plausible scenarios. First, Ukraine may be betting its forces against the next biggest threat on the northern front, this salient. If left unchecked, the salient could threaten another “flower-blossoming” manoeuvre like we saw at Ocherterne and Pospana: an outward spread from multiple sides from one central objective. In that sense, if Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are effectively lost, it makes sense to focus on dulling the blade that would be used next to strike Ukrainian defences.

Second, and less likely, Ukraine could be attempting a breakthrough to force Russian reinforcements north or even to punch through the northern lines. That would be extremely difficult, but any pressure could help alleviate the situation for Ukrainians in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—if there are any defenders left to be relieved.

Sources:
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TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

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