THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

The world’s headlines today stretch from renewed violence in Gaza to political posturing in Asia and beyond.

Israel’s fragile ceasefire has collapsed once again, Trump continues his Asia tour with a stop in Seoul, and Brazil reels from a deadly police raid that’s drawn global condemnation. Meanwhile, Poland’s air intercepts highlight NATO’s unease with Moscow’s behaviour, and Myanmar’s junta pushes ahead with an election few see as credible.

In today’s deep dive, we analyse the wider geopolitical context of this bloody civil war, and how it fits into the simmering cold war between Turkey and the UAE.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israel launches strikes on Gaza after Netanyahu orders ‘powerful’ attacks
Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “immediate and powerful strikes” across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, accusing Hamas of repeatedly breaching the cease-fire and failing to hand over the bodies of deceased hostages. The Israeli Defense Forces launched the retaliatory attacks after gunfire at troops in southern Gaza, triggering a rapid escalation in hostilities. The move risks unraveling the fragile truce and raises fresh doubts about whether a return to dialogue is still feasible.
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2. Trump lands in South Korea for the APEC Summit
Donald Trump arrived in South Korea ahead of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, where a South Korean military band greeted him at the tarmac with a rendition of “YMCA”. His visit, part of a broader Asia tour that included Japan and Malaysia, underscores a renewed U.S. push in the region for trade and security alliances amid growing competition with China. While largely ceremonial at this stage, the landing and reception set the tone for high-stakes bilateral talks and reflect how Washington aims to link symbolic presence with broader strategic goals.
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3. Police operation in Rio De Janeiro favelas leaves at least 64 people dead
A large-scale police operation in Rio de Janeiro’s favela complexes of Complexo do Alemão and Penha on October 28 involved about 2,500 officers and left at least 64 people dead, making it the deadliest raid in the state’s history. Police said the target was the Comando Vermelho drug trafficking gang; clashes included barricades, drone use and set fires, and authorities arrested 81 suspects and seized more than 90 rifles. The United Nations and human-rights groups condemned the violence and demanded investigations, warning that such operations, while aimed at crime, risk harming civilians and eroding public trust.
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4. Poland intercepts Russian aircraft performing reconnaissance mission
Poland’s fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea after it flew without a filed flight plan and with its transponder turned off, the Polish Armed Forces’ Operational Command said. The aircraft remained in international airspace and did not enter Polish territory, but the interception underscores NATO’s persistent concern over Russian probing missions near its eastern flank. Polish defence officials described the incident as another example of Moscow testing allied readiness, and reiterated Warsaw’s commitment to air-space vigilance alongside its NATO partners.
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5. Myanmar to hold second phase of election in January
The military government of Myanmar has announced that the second phase of its multi-stage general election will take place on January 11, 2026, covering 100 townships including areas in Yangon. Critics, including the United Nations, say the process lacks credibility, citing widespread bans on opposition parties and lack of control over large parts of the country. The announcement comes as the country remains mired in conflict and the vote is viewed by many as a bid by the military regime to regain legitimacy rather than deliver genuine democratic transition.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE FORGOTTEN CIVIL WAR IN SUDAN
PART 2 of 2

Who Supports Who.

RSF: UAE, LNA, Chad, South Sudan, CAR, Ethiopia, Wagner

SAF: Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Ukraine (not anymore) and Russia

UAE
One of the worst-kept secrets in geopolitics is the UAE’s extensive support for the RSF. The Emiratis have been funnelling drones, munitions, and cash to the militia through three key regional partners — the LNA in eastern and southern Libya, Chad, and South Sudan. The motivation is clear: the RSF controls several major gold mines, and the UAE is one of the world’s leading gold trading hubs. The RSF had also previously supported the UAE’s military operations in Yemen against the Houthis, strengthening their ties. According to analyst Clément Molin, Abu Dhabi significantly ramped up its assistance after the RSF lost control of Khartoum.

Milblogger @afriMEOSINT on X has been instrumental in tracking alleged UAE supplies to the RSF. These include kamikaze and reconnaissance drones, armoured vehicles, air defence systems, munitions, anti-tank missiles, and financial transfers. The list also extends to Colombian mercenaries, field hospitals based in South Sudan, and local recruitment networks among Baggara Arab tribes in Chad and the Central African Republic.

According to Somalian Human Rights Advocate and Activist, Deeqa, the UAE’s growing involvement in Sudan and other Red Sea nations stems from strategic and economic ambitions rather than ideology. Its goal is to secure long-term food and resource security by investing in large-scale agricultural projects, mineral extraction. With its oil reserves gradually declining, Abu Dhabi seeks to diversify its economic base and ensure access to critical supply chains. Emirati companies such as International Holding Company and Jenaan Investment already control more than 50,000 hectares of farmland in Sudan, while the Abu Hamed project covers an additional 162,000 hectares. We acknowledge the possible issue of reliability due to bias, but a different perspective is always worth mentioning.

Turkey
On the other side, Turkey has long been a close ally of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The two share ideological alignment through the Muslim Brotherhood and mutual ties with Qatar, underpinned by Ankara’s broader ambition for influence across Africa. Turkey also maintains strategic military assets, including its Black Sea base, which supports its regional projection. According to Clément Molin, Turkish aid has centred on drone warfare (delivering six to eight Bayraktar TB2s, roughly 600 munitions, and ground control stations) alongside unconfirmed shipments of small arms and other munitions. Another serious consideration is Erdogan’s persistent Neo-Ottoman rhetoric for his domestic base, this gives a domestic casus belli for regional expansion. However, this has triggered a new shift in regional dynamics as Iran and the Gulf States feel threatened by this rhetoric.

Iran
After restoring diplomatic ties in late 2023, Iran quickly became one of the Sudanese army’s most important foreign backers. Tehran supplied the SAF with Mohajer-6 and Ababil drones, precision munitions, and technical training that proved decisive in regaining territory around Khartoum. Satellite imagery and flight-tracking data revealed a series of Iranian cargo flights to Port Sudan, confirming a steady flow of drones and weapons. Beyond direct support, Iran’s involvement reflects a broader strategic aim—to secure influence on the both sides of the Red Sea with the Houthis and Sudan, whilst countering Gulf ambitions. Iran also seeks to limit Turkish expansion, as the old balance of power realism theory argues states will aim to limit other state actors becoming too powerful.

Russia / Ukraine
When it became clear that the SAF were not going to lose, Russia shifted its support from the RSF to the Sudanese army. Moscow had initially backed the RSF through Wagner, mainly to secure access to the gold mines discussed earlier. However, by early 2024, Russia surprised the geopolitical stage by abandoning the RSF and siding with the SAF. The reason? Ukrainian special operations forces, operating alongside the SAF, were allegedly targeting Russian personnel in Sudan. In response, Moscow offered significant military aid on the condition that Ukraine was expelled and an agreement was reached to establish a Russian naval base on Sudan’s coast.

The MENA Cold War
The Turkey–UAE rivalry traces back to the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, when old power structures in the Middle East began to unravel. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP, Turkey sought to position itself as the leading voice of a new regional order grounded in political Islam and popular legitimacy. Ankara backed movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Ennahda in Tunisia, supported Islamist-aligned militias in Libya, and provided early assistance to opposition groups in Syria. This marked a decisive shift from its earlier “zero problems with neighbours” policy toward a more assertive, interventionist foreign posture.

For the UAE, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), Turkey’s rise represented both an ideological and strategic threat. Abu Dhabi viewed Erdoğan’s support for Islamist parties as a destabilising force that could inspire dissent within monarchies and weaken Gulf influence. In response, the UAE launched an aggressive campaign to counter Turkish influence, funding anti-Islamist governments and militias across the region. It played a central role in supporting Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s coup in Egypt in 2013, backed Khalifa Haftar’s forces in Libya against Turkish-supported Tripoli militias, and aligned itself with Greece and Cyprus to constrain Ankara’s energy ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

By the late 2010s, the rivalry had hardened into a geopolitical cold war — fought through ports, proxies, and economic leverage stretching from North Africa to the Horn of Africa. Despite intermittent diplomatic thawing, Turkey and the UAE remain locked in a contest over ideological legitimacy, maritime dominance, and regional leadership.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
OSINT Accounts used: AfriMEOSINT on X, Clement_Molin on X, Suriyak on T, AMK_Mapping on T, Vista on T/X (Arabic)

TWEET OF THE DAY

Is Japan back…?

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 29, 1929): Collapse of U.S. stock market prices

Just five days after nearly 13 million shares of U.S. stock were sold in one day in 1929, an additional 16 million shares were sold this day, called “Black Tuesday,” further fueling the crisis known as the Great Depression.