THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s global landscape brings a mix of diplomacy, relief, and reflection.

From a UK–India defence deal and optimism in Israel and Gaza following a ceasefire, to Trump’s upcoming health check drawing renewed attention in Washington, the headlines span both celebration and scrutiny. North Korea marked a major milestone with high-profile foreign guests, while India quietly deepened engagement with Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership.

In today’s deep dive we analyse the newly signed Gaza deal, while optimism is rife many uncertainties remain.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. UK signs $468M deal to supply India with missiles
The United Kingdom has signed a £350 million (approximately USD 468 million) contract to supply India with lightweight multirole missiles made by Thales in Northern Ireland. The deal was announced during Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Mumbai and is expected to secure around 700 jobs at the Thales factory, which already makes the same missiles for Ukraine. The UK government says the contract is meant to pave the way for a broader complex-weapons partnership under negotiation with India.
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2. Joy in Israel and Gaza after ceasefire announced
After a ceasefire and hostage deal were announced between Israel and Hamas with celebrations broke out across Gaza and Israel, with people dancing in the streets, waving flags, and expressing relief. In Gaza, displaced families and young men applauded as news spread that hostages would be freed and Israeli troops would begin withdrawing. In Israel, families of captives gathered in “Hostages Square,” tearfully hopeful that the war’s darkest chapter may now begin to end.
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3. Trump to undergo physical exam tomorrow as health questions linger
Trump is scheduled to undergo a “routine yearly checkup” at Walter Reed Medical Center on Friday, as confirmed by the White House. The announcement comes amid ongoing health scrutiny, especially given his age (79) and past disclosures of leg swelling and hand bruising. While the White House downplays concerns, questions linger over whether detailed results will be released.
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4. North Korea’s ruling party turns 80 with foreign leaders in attendance
North Korea is marking the 80th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party with a high-profile celebration in Pyongyang attended by prominent foreign figures such as China’s Premier Li Qiang and Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev, signalling stronger ties among these powers. Leader Kim Jong Un delivered a speech praising the party’s legacy, reaffirming loyalty to socialist principles, and praising the founders for laying the ideological foundation of the state. The presence of major diplomatic delegations underscores how North Korea is leveraging the milestone to showcase international solidarity and deepen strategic alliances.
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5. Afghanistan’s Taliban foreign minister visits India to build closer ties
Afghanistan’s Taliban Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, has begun a six-day visit to India with diplomacy, trade, and economic ties on the agenda. The U.N. temporarily lifted his travel ban under sanctions to allow the visit, and he is expected to meet with India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar and other officials to discuss political cooperation, healthcare, exports such as dry fruit, and consular services. While New Delhi has not officially recognised the Taliban administration, reopening a small mission and engaging in talks suggests a cautious diplomatic engagement with Kabul.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

GAZA PEACE DEAL: OPTIMISM AND UNCERTAINTY

Just over an hour ago, the ceasefire in Gaza officially took effect — though not before an unusually intense burst of gunfire, vehicle drone detonations, and airstrikes shook Gaza City. Rumors of a major announcement began circulating when a photo went viral showing Senator Marco Rubio handing President Trump a note suggesting he post on Truth Social about an upcoming statement. Shortly after, the news broke: one of the biggest developments of the year — both sides had agreed to the first stage of Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan in the early hours of the morning, around 2 a.m. local time in Cairo. The final breakthrough came with the Qatari Prime Minister, the Egyptian Minister of Intelligence, the Turkish intelligence chief, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff all present for the closing negotiations.

To Be A Fl….Negotiator On The Wall
Gershon Baskin, the Israeli negotiator who helped broker the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange, described the October 9, 2025 Trump-brokered ceasefire as the formal end of the Gaza war, ensuring hostages and prisoners are freed and Israel withdraws under international guarantees. He argues the war could have ended a year earlier: Hamas had already accepted nearly identical terms in September 2024’s “Three Weeks Deal,” but Israel rejected it and the Biden administration refused to back it, despite Qatar and Egypt confirming Hamas’s willingness.

In December 2024, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar told Baskin to halt back-channel talks because a Trump-led ceasefire was imminent, reinforcing Baskin’s view that only Trump could compel Netanyahu to stop the war. By September 2025, Baskin helped draft the final U.S. proposal presented to Hamas—derailed briefly after Israel’s strike on Khalil al-Haya’s home before resuming under Trump’s direct mediation at Sharm el-Sheikh.

The deal begins with hostage and prisoner exchanges, followed by Israel’s withdrawal and Hamas handing over heavy weapons to a new Palestinian security force backed by Egypt. Gaza will transition to a civilian-led Palestinian administration, with figures like Marwan Barghouti and Nasser al-Qidwa under consideration. Baskin concludes the conflict lasted a year longer than necessary, crediting Trump, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner for finally delivering the breakthrough.

Note: We will acknowledge there is a strong U.S bias in the post but nonetheless very interesting. 

We recommend reading the entire X post by Gershon Baskin, very informative from someone that is in the negotiation process (linked below). 

READ HERE

What Changed From The Draft And Now?
Two of the most significant changes between the published Gaza peace plan and Gershon Baskin’s account concern governance and security control. In the official plan, Gaza’s administration is to be overseen by a Trump-chaired “Board of Peace” that includes foreign figures like Tony Blair, a structure implying external supervision and Western management. Baskin, however, flatly rejects anything resembling a “neo-colonial mechanism,” and insists the new government must be Palestinian-led, rooted in local civil society rather than foreign trusteeship. Similarly, while the peace plan outlines a U.S.-coordinated International Stabilisation Force (ISF) of Arab and international troops to police Gaza, Baskin only refers to a Palestinian security force supported by Egypt, not a multinational deployment. Together, these differences suggest that what began as strong American branding with multinational oversight is now expected to be a more regionally driven and locally anchored framework. 

Where Most Got It Wrong
The fact that Hamas has to practically be sidelined from the new peace plan was something many thought would not be accepted by Hamas, including us. However, we underestimated the probable internal political and military exhaustion that Hamas was facing. Hamas agreed to the deal not out of strength, but because it had run out of options. After nearly two years of war, the group was militarily depleted, politically isolated, and facing pressure from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to accept a ceasefire. By agreeing, Hamas preserves its survival and can still frame the outcome as a symbolic victory — Israel is withdrawing, prisoners are being released, and Gaza’s new government will be Palestinian-led, not foreign-imposed. Also, reading between the lines, Baskin says he was talking to Hamas officials outside of Gaza. Suggesting, by this stage, Hamas was fractured between its political leadership abroad and its remaining fighters inside Gaza, making it difficult to sustain a unified resistance front.

The belief that Hamas would reject the deal partly came from Netanyahu’s post-agreement interview, aimed at his domestic audience. While he appeared to endorse Trump’s peace plan publicly, his Hebrew remarks told a different story, rejecting Palestinian statehood and insisting the IDF would remain in most of Gaza. This dual messaging let him project cooperation abroad while reassuring his right-wing base that Israel’s control would continue. By claiming that Israel had “isolated Hamas” and that Trump supported military pressure, Netanyahu framed the deal as a strategic victory, not a compromise. In reality, he used the agreement to ease international pressure while maintaining his hardline stance at home. For Netanyahu, the deal was less about peace and more about political survival, a way to reset public pressure and buy time before the 2026 elections.

The Unanswered Question: Statehood or Status Quo?
While the sounds of gunfire have gone silent, the architecture behind the peace plan is still not finalised. One of the main questions that everyone seems to be avoiding for the current moment is where does Palestinian statehood lie? While U.S. officials and Arab mediators have spoken of a “credible pathway to Palestinian statehood,” neither the final text of the peace plan nor Netanyahu’s public comments confirm such a commitment. In fact, Netanyahu has repeatedly said he “strongly opposes a Palestinian state,” insisting that no such language appears in the agreement. This ambiguity leaves the deal trapped between a ceasefire framework and a genuine political roadmap — it ends the war but doesn’t define what peace looks like. For Palestinians, the risk is that Gaza’s reconstruction becomes a substitute for sovereignty, offering economic relief without self-determination. Until statehood is clearly addressed and accepted by both sides, the agreement remains a temporary pause in conflict rather than a final political settlement.

For the sake of the civilians and hostages we hope this peace truly lasts. But, there have been at least six previous ceasefire agreements since 2008. We must also consider the pressure that Netanyahu’s own hardline supporters will put on the President. On the other side of the coin, we need to also consider rogue hardline or jihadist entities that might oppose peace with Israel — which could stall or complicate peace. Both sides have individuals and groups that might aim to sabotage peace. Many questions remain — will the peace last, can Netanyahu survive the 2026 elections, and what will reconstruction look like?

Sources:
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TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 9, 2004): First Afghan presidential elections

On this day in 2004, for the first time in Afghanistan's history, voters went to the polls to choose a president, selecting Hamid Karzai, who had served as the interim president after the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.