The Lebanese Front Heats Up, Day 11 Of The Iran-USA Conflict

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

The Iran-U.S. conflict continues to dominate the headlines today, with Australia moving to support Gulf partners, Tehran threatening to keep its oil blockade in place, and Donald Trump insisting the war could end “very soon.”

Elsewhere, a new report alleges hundreds have been killed in Haitian police drone strikes, while a high-profile U.S. trial ends with the Alexander brothers found guilty on all sex-trafficking charges.

In today’s deep dive, we focus on the growing escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border — as Israel continues its ground offensive into the south while Hezbollah puts up fierce resistance.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Australia to provide military support to Gulf states attacked by Iran
Australia has announced it will provide defensive military support to Gulf states targeted by Iranian missile and drone attacks as the regional conflict intensifies. The government said it will deploy a Royal Australian Air Force E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and around 85 Australian Defence Force personnel to help monitor and secure airspace over the Gulf. Canberra will also supply advanced air-to-air missiles to the United Arab Emirates, stressing that the assistance is intended to protect civilians and allied nations rather than participate in offensive operations against Iran.
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2. Trump says US-Israel war on Iran will be over ‘very soon’
Donald Trump said the ongoing US–Israeli war against Iran could be over “very soon,” citing what he described as significant progress by allied forces against Iranian military and strategic targets. However, he did not provide a specific timeline and indicated that military operations would continue until US objectives in the conflict are fully achieved. Trump also warned that any further disruption to regional oil flows or attacks on US allies could trigger stronger retaliation from Washington.
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3. Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to hit harder
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will continue enforcing an oil blockade in the region until US and Israeli attacks against Iran stop, warning that it will not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East under current conditions. The threat comes amid disruptions to tanker traffic around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy exports. Trump responded by warning that Washington would strike Iran “much harder” if it attempts to block regional oil shipments or escalate attacks against US allies.
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4. Hundreds of people killed in Haiti police drone strikes
Human Rights Watch says armed drones used by Haitian police and private contractors have killed hundreds of people in operations targeting gangs in and around the capital, Port-au-Prince. The group reported that at least 1,200 people were killed and more than 700 injured between March 2025 and January 2026, including dozens of civilians and children. The report raised concerns that some of the strikes may amount to unlawful or extrajudicial killings, as Haiti’s government continues using drones in its fight against heavily armed criminal groups controlling large parts of the country.
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5. Alexander brothers found guilt on all charges in sex trafficking trial
Three brothers - Tal, Oren, and Alon Alexander, have been found guilty on all charges in a federal sex-trafficking trial in Manhattan. Prosecutors said the brothers used their wealth and social status to lure women to exclusive parties and trips, where victims testified they were drugged and sexually assaulted over a period spanning more than a decade. The jury convicted them after a five-week trial featuring testimony from multiple accusers, and the brothers now face potential sentences of 15 years to life in prison.
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IRAN-USA CONFLICT DAY 11 - The Lebanese Front

The situation in southern Lebanon has escalated significantly overnight as Israeli forces expand their ground operations while airstrikes intensify across the region. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are advancing along multiple axes with tanks and armored vehicles, supported by artillery, attack helicopters, and sustained airpower. Lebanese media and open-source reporting indicate that Israeli units are pushing from Rab Thalathine and Odaisseh toward Taybeh, from the lowlands south of Maroun el-Ras toward the Khanouq neighborhood in Aitaroun, from Ramyeh toward Qouzah and Salhaneh, and along the ridge between Markaba and Houla. Additional armored movements have reportedly advanced from Misgav Am toward Adaisseh, under heavy fire support.

Airstrikes have continued throughout the night. According to reports from Lebanese media and mapping groups such as AMK Mapping and Suriyak, Israeli aircraft struck a wide range of towns including Yater, Deir Seryan, Qabrikha, Ansariyeh, Taybeh, Qantara, Beit Lif, Tebnine, Chehabiyeh, Jouaiyya, Tyre, Jezzine, and Bint Jbeil, as well as targets around Khiam and parts of the eastern Bekaa Valley. These strikes appear aimed at degrading Hezbollah defensive positions and logistics nodes ahead of further Israeli advances.

On the ground, fighting remains intense. Hezbollah claims its fighters ambushed an Israeli evacuation team near Khiam, striking Merkava tanks with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and engaging Israeli forces with small arms. According to Hezbollah statements cited by open-source monitors, at least two Merkava tanks were hit, with additional clashes occurring around the town’s detention center area. Israel has confirmed casualties since the start of the renewed invasion, with two soldiers killed and at least 13 wounded in recent fighting.

The conflict is also beginning to take on a regional dimension. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has accused Hezbollah of firing artillery and mortar shells toward the Syrian town of Serghaya, near Damascus. Syrian officials claim the fire targeted SAA positions and warned Hezbollah against further “aggression,” while reports suggest Hezbollah is moving reinforcements from the Haidar Unit toward the Syrian border. Unverified reports indicate Damascus may consider establishing a buffer zone along the Baalbek-Hermel border if Hezbollah forces do not withdraw.

The escalation comes amid Israel’s broader campaign against Hezbollah following months of cross-border exchanges and rocket attacks on northern Israel, which Israeli officials say have displaced thousands of civilians. We saw targeted airstrikes on Hezbollah command just a week before the operation began - now the focus has shifted to both an economic and military aspect. Not only are Hezbollah positions being bombed, but also banks affiliated to Hezbollah.

The last 24 hours have been the first time we have really seen what many had thought Hezbollah capable of. It’s putting up a strong resistance in some areas such as Kiam — a known Hezbollah stronghold. We’ve also seen Hezbollah launch long-range missiles toward Beit Shemesh, striking the Emeq Ha'ela Satellite Station, a major Israeli communications hub linking geostationary satellites for broadcasting and data services. Damage could disrupt TV, internet, and safety signals. The strike was likely carried out using Qader-2 ballistic missiles, though Qader-1 or Fateh-110 variants remain possible (Information source: Theti Mapping).

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Also AMK_Mapping on X and SuriyakMaps on Telegram

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 10, 1933): Opening of the Nazis' first concentration camp

On this day in 1933, soon after Adolf Hitler became chancellor, the first concentration camp in Germany opened at Dachau, where at least 32,000 people would die from disease, malnutrition, physical oppression, and execution.