THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Damascus to New Delhi, leaders are recalibrating old partnerships amid changing geopolitical realities, while border tensions in South Asia and political upheaval in Africa continue to test regional stability.

China and France are also looking to strengthen ties through renewed strategic dialogue, signalling Paris’s nuanced approach toward Beijing.

In today’s deep dive we discuss the public and between-the-lines reason for the historic meeting between President Putin and President al-Sharaa.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Syria’s Sharaa meets Putin in Moscow for first time since Assad’s fall
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Moscow on Wednesday, for his first official meeting with President Putin since overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Al-Sharaa pledged to honour past agreements with Russia as part of a pragmatic new chapter in their relationship. The discussions also touched on reconstruction aid, energy cooperation, and Syria’s desire to reset ties amid regional shifts and international scrutiny.
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2. Indian refiners prepare to cut Russian oil imports
Some Indian refiners are preparing to gradually reduce their imports of Russian crude oil, sources told Reuters, amid mounting U.S. diplomatic pressure and trade incentives. Russian crude currently accounts for around 36% of India’s oil imports, down from 40% a year earlier, while the share of Middle Eastern oil has grown. New Delhi’s foreign ministry, however, emphasised that its policy remains focused on stable energy prices and supply security, rather than outright pledges tied to external pressure.
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3. African Union suspends Madagascar as military leader set to be sworn in as president
Colonel Michael Randrianirina, Madagascar’s new military ruler, has announced he will be sworn in as president on Friday, following a coup that ousted Andry Rajoelina. Randrianirina said government institutions would be dissolved and a transitional military-led committee would govern for up to two years before new elections. In response to the power shift, the African Union suspended Madagascar’s membership and demanded a return to civilian rule.
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4. Pakistan and Afghanistan announce ceasefire after deadly border clashes
Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed Wednesday to a 48-hour temporary ceasefire after intense border clashes and airstrikes that left over a dozen civilians dead and about 100 wounded. The truce comes after Pakistan accused the Taliban of sheltering militants responsible for attacks inside its territory, while the Afghan side denied the claims and blamed Islamabad for provoking tensions.
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5. China seeks stronger ties with France in strategic dialogue
China has expressed a strong interest in deepening strategic mutual trust with France following a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic adviser to the French president. Key areas for expanded cooperation include civil nuclear energy, aerospace, agriculture and food, artificial intelligence, and new energy. The two sides also discussed global issues like the Ukraine crisis, tensions in the Middle East, and the international governance system, agreeing to maintain coordinated communication.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE AL-SHARAA AND PUTIN MEETING

Pre-Meeting Context
In July 2025, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani visited Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the first high-level meeting since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December. Lavrov announced that Russia hopes Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, would attend the upcoming Russia–Arab League summit on October 15. During the visit, both sides agreed to establish two committees to review previous bilateral agreements and strengthen future cooperation. Moscow, which continues to operate two military bases in Syria, is seeking to maintain its influence with the new government while urging the removal of international sanctions on Damascus. Yesterday, the two leaders met independently, as the Russia-Arab summit was postponed by Putin on the basis of the current events unfolding in the Middle East. Yet, President al-Sharaa still made his way down and there are several reasons for this.

The Meeting
Yesterday, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, pledging to honour all past agreements with Russia — a move that effectively guarantees the continued operation of Russian military bases at Hmeimim and Tartous. The most important is Tartous, one of Russia’s oldest and ongoing geopolitical goals is access to warm water ports and Tartous is in a strategic location. Publicly, the two leaders discussed energy cooperation and reconstruction, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirming Moscow’s readiness to invest in Syrian oil, rail, and infrastructure projects. Sharaa’s delegation also sought assurances that Russia would not rearm Assad loyalists. The talks further touched on renewed wheat supplies, compensation for war damage, and Russian backing against Israeli demilitarisation proposals in southern Syria. Despite the sensitivity of the visit, both sides emphasised a willingness to redefine relations under Syria’s new leadership while maintaining close military and strategic cooperation. There was also no mention of the attacks on minority groups for obvious reasons to not ruin the mood. 

Don’t be surprised by the positives of this meeting as al-Sharaa is trying not to back himself into a corner where the U.S. becomes his only ally. Think of this as a fresh start; in Al-Sharaa’s view, he’s simply keeping his options open. One interesting detail was his mention of the remaining Assad loyalists, though few in number, the acknowledgment shows the issue still lingers in the back of the Syrian president’s mind.

Russian and Syrian History
During Wednesday’s meeting, Putin highlighted that Russia and Syria have enjoyed over 80 years of “exceptionally friendly” relations, noting that their ties “have never depended on political circumstances.” That’s something of an understatement, the relationship runs far deeper, rooted in decades of Soviet support during the Cold War. As al-Sharaa himself put it: “We have close relations with Russia, and a large part of the energy sector in Syria depends on Russian expertise.”

Assad Question
And on the Assad question that everyone’s thinking about, al-Sharaa reportedly asked Moscow to hand over Bashar al-Assad to face trial in Damascus, a request the Kremlin is unlikely to grant. If Putin were to comply, it would risk alienating Russia’s geopolitical partners across the Global South, where Moscow is often viewed as the counterweight to Western influence. The only scenario where such a move might occur is if Syria were to turn hostile toward Russian bases under foreign pressure, using Assad’s handover as leverage – but even then, it would isolate Damascus just as much as it would Moscow handing over Assad. And lastly, one has to consider just how much political influence Assad has – many only see a man who fled while his country collapsed and with much of his supporters captured, in hiding or dead there is not much there. 

The Real Reason for al-Sharaa’s Visit
To understand why al-Sharaa truly arrived, we need to look at the UNSC. What ultimately shattered Assad’s grip on power were the heavy sanctions placed on Syria. Sanctions always hurt ordinary citizens far more than the elites. When Trump and al-Sharaa met in May, Trump announced that most sanctions would be lifted, except for the controversial Caesar Act, which still in place for another four years. Al-Sharaa himself remains under Resolution 1267/1989/2253, the UNSC framework sanctioning Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their affiliates. One of the key aims of his Moscow visit was likely to ensure Russia does not veto any upcoming resolutions that would remove those sanctions. Sanctions are designed to cripple a nation into submission and the President needs free reign if any meaningful reconstruction efforts are to happen, as well as removing any personal legal impediments. 

The China Factor
China remains a tougher factor to navigate. While there’s been diplomatic outreach with the Chinese ambassador, nothing major has materialised yet. The long-standing issue lies with Uyghur jihadist fighters who supported al-Sharaa’s rise and opposed Beijing. China wants firm assurances that its ethnic Uyghur population in Syria will be contained and gradually assimilated under the new government. Balancing between appeasing hardliners and playing the geopolitical game is proving difficult for al-Sharaa, as we’ve mentioned before. If Beijing’s conditions are met, Chinese investment could follow, though the risk of rogue attacks on Chinese nationals remains high therefore we believe this remains unlikely in the near term. Considering this, al-Sharaa is banking on Putin’s support — if Moscow doesn’t veto the motion, China is unlikely to stand in the way either.

Sources:
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TWEET OF THE DAY

Elon must be lapping this up at X HQ… 😂

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 16, 1793): Marie-Antoinette guillotined

After the French Revolution began, Marie-Antoinette, queen consort of Louis XVI, was targeted by agitators who, enraged by her extravagance and attempts to save the monarchy, ultimately guillotined her on this day in 1793.