THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From budget blow-ups in Bulgaria and a papal diplomacy tour through Turkey, to Washington escalating pressure on Venezuelan drug networks and Berlin opening the cheque book on defence, today’s headlines span protest politics, power projection and global security.

We’re also tracking a devastating tragedy in Hong Kong, where the toll from a high-rise fire continues to climb, fuelling anger and accountability questions.

In terms of Today’s deep dive, it’s been one year since the 10-day operation to topple Assad began, so we are taking a look at some key moments in the brutal civil war.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Bulgaria withdraws 2026 budget proposal following street protests
The government of Bulgaria will resubmit its 2026 draft budget after widespread protests in the capital Sofia over proposed tax hikes and social-security increases. The decision came after tens of thousands rallied against measures including higher social-security contributions and a doubling of the dividend tax, prompting the government to call for renewed dialogue with employers, trade unions, and opposition parties. No new submission date has been set, but officials say the revised budget will be reworked to address the concerns that triggered the unrest, ensuring stability ahead of Bulgaria’s planned adoption of the euro at the start of next year.
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2. Pope Leo meets Turkey’s Erdogan and Orthodox leaders on first overseas trip
Pope Leo XIV has arrived in Turkey for the first overseas trip of his papacy, where he met with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and leaders of the Orthodox Church, calling on Ankara to champion peace, pluralism and dialogue amid global turmoil. In Ankara the Pope praised Turkey’s historic role as a bridge between East and West and urged it to serve as a source of stability and rapprochement among peoples. The trip is viewed as a significant diplomatic moment in the region, with Leo’s message aimed at strengthening Christian-Muslim and inter-Christian unity during a fraught global context.
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3. Trump says US will soon take action against Venezuelan drug traffickers on land
Trump announced that the United States will “very soon” begin targeting alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers on land, expanding the campaign that has so far focused on striking suspected smuggling vessels at sea. The shift comes after U.S. forces conducted more than 20 maritime strikes since September, which the administration says have severely disrupted Venezuelan drug routes.
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4. Germany set to approve €2.9B arms package as defence spending surges
Germany is set to approve a €2.9 billion arms package covering 11 military procurement contracts as part of a broader surge in defence spending. The funding boost comes as Berlin ramps up its efforts to modernise the Bundeswehr and expand its contribution to European and NATO security amid regional instability. The planned contracts are expected to benefit domestic arms manufacturers, reinforcing Germany’s long-term commitment to strengthening its defence industrial base.
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5. Hong Kong tower fire toll rises to 128, while 200 remain missing
The death toll from the high-rise blaze at the Wang Fuk Court residential complex in Hong Kong’s Tai Po district has risen to 128, with around 200 people still unaccounted for, authorities said after rescue efforts concluded. Investigators have arrested multiple individuals on suspicion of manslaughter, citing the use of flammable materials and safety lapses (notably, fire alarms reportedly failed).
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

The Syrian War: A Decade That Rewired Geopolitics PART 1

The first major protests erupted in March 2011, and what followed became one of the most horrific and bloody conflicts the Middle East had seen since the Iran–Iraq War of the 1980s. There are countless lenses through which to view this war. On one hand, the sheer human tragedy — the loss of life, the destruction of cities, the loss of self and identity. Geopolitically, it became an immensely complex conflict with overlapping allegiances and competing motives.

Syria, I would argue, was also the birthplace of modern citizen journalism — the foundation for today’s global ecosystem of analysts, milbloggers and OSINT communities. For me, and for many I mentioned above, Syria was where this deeper interest truly began. So when Assad’s government fell, in what was a blink of an eye, it shocked many of us.

Russia’s Military Intervention
By 2016, Assad’s forces were on the back foot. The situation looked bleak: they had lost their last foothold in the Idlib governorate the year before, the siege of Aleppo was grinding on, ISIS continued to advance, and key rebel pockets simply weren’t collapsing. The Russian intervention couldn’t have come at a more critical moment. At Ghouta, the siege lasted so long that Rebel forces had created an intricate tunnel system capable of driving trucks through them.

The Russian intervention became one of the most decisive and controversial military campaigns of the 21st century. Russian air power was unmatched, and when paired with Russian training, special operations forces and intelligence support, it gave the Syrian Arab Army the edge — and the morale — it desperately needed. What followed was a series of offensives that many believed ultimately sealed the fate of the Syrian war. Not without its own controversies, as Western governments and media increasingly condemned the operation as unjust and responsible for compounding a growing humanitarian crisis.

Russia learned a great deal from this conflict, particularly about siege warfare. Encirclements were costly and time-inefficient, so Moscow introduced the now-famous “green buses” — an innovative solution to end rebel pockets by offering safe transport to the rebel heartland in Idlib governorate. We would see tactics used in Syria applied in the Siege of Mariupol. 

Rebel Unity And Division
There is much that can be said about the rebel factions, partly because each group has a rich and fascinating history within the broader chapter of modern geopolitics. Many rebel groups operating around the major cities at the heart of Assad’s government showed extraordinary resilience — besieged and bombed daily for years, yet refusing to collapse. Every street was a frontline, and families lived inside the battle zone with no separation between civilian life and combat.

Where many believed the tide had turned after key rebel victories up to 2015, they would not see meaningful momentum again until late 2024. Rebel infighting in Idlib — made worse by ISIS interference and Russia’s “green bus” policy relocating defeated factions — turned the province into a chaotic turf war, a jihadist jungle where there was always a bigger fish. One by one, groups either bent the knee or were wiped out until only one remained: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Jolani (al-Sharaa).

It was here that al-Sharaa would spend the next eight years experimenting with governance structures, consolidating power, and preparing a system he believed could one day replace the Assad regime.

The Battle of Aleppo
Personally, I believe this battle doesn’t receive the academic recognition it deserves. Like many others, it brought enormous human loss — a city reduced to rubble, neighbour turning on neighbour. Aleppo, one of the longest continuously inhabited cities in human civilisation, was driven into a rare dual-siege that lasted four years and five months. The rebel-held eastern districts were enveloped by an arching SAA presence from the north, south and west, connected to the wider rebel heartland by only a narrow lifeline. For the Syrian Army, the situation wasn’t much better — the government-held western half of the city was constantly threatened by rebel positions to the north and vulnerable to repeated cut-offs. In all of this, a few neighbourhood blocks of Kurdish majority would hold their ground often with overlapping alliances with both major factions, this was Sheikh Massoud. 

In the final months, as the SAA consolidated territory and freed up manpower for the decisive push, the rebel side was finally encircled. This triggered a major counter-offensive led by al-Sharaa’s HTS to break the siege. And for those who followed it in real time, many long nights were spent tracking who controlled the 1070 Housing Project and the neighbouring military academy — both of which became symbols of the battle’s shifting momentum. In the end Assad’s forces won, but not without a significant loss of civilian life and destruction to the city.

Part 1 covered the major arcs of the war. In Part 2, we’ll shift to the defining episodes — the city stands, last-ditch defences, and battles that shaped the conflict on the ground. We will also discuss Turkish intervention and the fall of ISIS.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 28, 1943): Opening of Tehrān Conference

The Tehrān Conference, attended by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin, at which Stalin pressed for an invasion of France, opened this day in 1943.