THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today in Europe, a U.S. jury found French bank BNP Paribas liable for enabling Sudan’s atrocities, awarding millions in damages. Across Asia, China expelled top generals in a sweeping anti-corruption purge, while Afghanistan and Pakistan opened peace talks after deadly clashes. Further south, a Cameroon-flagged tanker exploded off Yemen, and U.S. forces detained survivors from a Caribbean strike.

We’re reading between the lines of today’s tough meeting with President Trump and President Zelensky. From the quiet airport welcome to the post-interview comments and what’s really behind the meeting.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. China continues corruption purge
China has expelled two top generals (He Weidong, vice-chair of the Central Military Commission, and Admiral Miao Hua) along with seven senior officers for alleged corruption involving vast sums. The purge, announced ahead of the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum, marks the removal of the highest-ranking commander since the Cultural Revolution and signals Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of control within the military and Communist Party apparatus.
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2. Cameroon-flagged oil tanker issues distress call near Yemen
A Cameroon-flagged oil tanker issued a distress call after an explosion about 60 nautical miles south of Yemen’s Al-Ahwar, security firm Ambrey reported. The vessel, traveling from Oman’s Sohar Port to Djibouti, said its crew planned to abandon ship as rescue efforts began. The cause of the blast remains unclear, though Ambrey noted the tanker has no known links to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement, which has targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea since late 2023.
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3. Afghanistan and Pakistan agree to extend ceasefire as negotiations continue
Afghanistan and Pakistan began peace talks in Doha after their fiercest border clashes since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. The two sides agreed to extend a 48-hour ceasefire to facilitate negotiations aimed at curbing cross-border militancy and restoring stability. Islamabad has demanded that Kabul act against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), accused of operating from Afghan territory, while Kabul condemned Pakistani airstrikes that killed civilians. The talks are being mediated by Qatar and backed by the United Nations.
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4. U.S federal jury found French Bank BNP guilty of aiding Sudan in atrocities
A U.S. federal jury in Manhattan found French bank BNP Paribas liable for aiding Sudan’s government in atrocities during the rule of Omar al-Bashir by providing banking services that violated U.S. sanctions. The decision awarded about US$20.5 million in damages to three Sudanese plaintiffs and could open the door for over 20,000 more claimants. The bank plans to appeal, arguing the verdict misapplied Swiss law and ignored key evidence
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5. U.S military is detaining two survivors from suspected narco-sub
The U.S. military is detaining two survivors aboard a Navy warship after a strike destroyed a suspected drug-trafficking vessel in the Caribbean. The vessel, believed to be a low-profile “narco-sub,” was hit during a Thursday operation that killed two others on board. The action is part of President Trump’s expanded campaign against “narcoterrorism” in waters near Venezuela, following his administration’s recent declaration of a non-international armed conflict targeting cartel-linked operations in the Caribbean.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Not The Meeting Zelensky Wanted

The Arrival Sets The Tone
In the lead-up to the White House talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s arrival in Washington was notably subdued. No American officials were present to receive him at the airport — only his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and members of his own flight crew. The absence of a U.S. delegation signalled that expectations for the visit were already modest, particularly regarding Ukraine’s push to secure Tomahawk cruise missiles.

No Tomahawks Deal Reached
We didn’t expect a groundbreaking meeting, purely based on Trump’s own schedule, which had him heading to golf straight after. Publicly, during their bilateral lunch, President Trump called Zelenskyy a strong leader and said he hoped the war would end soon, emphasising the tragic loss of life and his belief that progress was being made. Zelenskyy thanked the U.S. for its support and urged continued assistance, asserting that Ukraine could prevail against Russia with American backing. However, behind closed doors the tone was different. The bilateral lunch reportedly lasted around 45 minutes according to the White House schedule (source: Roll Call), though Axios noted it wrapped up after roughly 2.5 hours, ending abruptly with Trump saying, “I think we’re done. Let’s see what happens next week.” Sources described the private discussion as “not easy,” with others calling it “bad.”

The most public request was for Tomahawks, which Trump declined to provide, citing inventory concerns, a valid point. Another issue is the complexity of converting ship-launched missiles for land use, a process that could take months at best. While Tomahawks dominated headlines, they were only part of a broader list of systems Kyiv is seeking access to — many of which were quietly discussed during the meeting.

Energy Deals
We also noted earlier that energy would be a major aspect of this visit and it was. Venture Global is in talks with Ukraine’s energy firm DTEK to supply additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana, as Kyiv struggles with power shortages caused by Russian strikes. The discussions followed a meeting in Washington between Zelenskyy and U.S. energy executives, including Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel. DTEK already holds a 2024 agreement for LNG from Venture Global’s facilities, including two million tonnes annually from its upcoming CP2 hub.

In Zelensky’s own words after meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright: We discussed rebuilding Ukraine’s energy system after Russian attacks and potential U.S.-Ukraine cooperation in the energy sector. He thanked Washington for its readiness to help restore damaged infrastructure and stressed the importance of expanding American business involvement in Ukraine’s energy recovery and development.

Post-Meeting Interviews
After the White House meeting, Zelenskyy acknowledged that Ukraine needs U.S. long-range missiles for future offensives but said he was “realistic” about the chances of receiving them. Trump appeared hesitant, urging both sides to “stop the war immediately,” even if that meant freezing the front lines. Zelenskyy later told NBC that while Trump hadn’t agreed to provide Tomahawks, he hadn’t ruled it out either. Following the talks, Zelenskyy held a “productive” call with European leaders, who reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defence and humanitarian needs.

The Russian Curve-Ball Call
While Zelenskyy was en route to Washington, Donald Trump held a two-and-a-half-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin, overshadowing the Ukrainian president’s visit. The Kremlin described the call as initiated by Russia, during which Putin warned that supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would be viewed as a major provocation. Trump and Putin also discussed potential “colossal” trade opportunities if peace were reached and agreed to hold a summit in Hungary within two weeks. Zelenskyy later downplayed the timing, suggesting Moscow’s outreach reflected panic over growing discussion of U.S. missile support.

Did the call have an impact? As we’ve said before, Trump’s unpredictable style of politics is both his greatest advantage and his biggest weakness. It allows him to control the narrative and keep other leaders wary of falling out of favour,  but it also makes him highly susceptible to influence. At times, it seems Trump simply echoes the views of whoever he spoke to most recently. But Trump is not stupid, and he would feel reinvigorated after the Gaza deal and probably believes to an extent he can make this peace happen. In saying this, the European leaders are now drafting their own version of Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan. 

Why Does Ukraine Want Tomahawks?
This is an interesting one. Ukraine, a primarily land-based military, is asking for ship-launched cruise missiles, and for good reason. Kyiv has struggled to target Russian drone and missile production sites, which are vast, reinforced structures built to survive heavy bombardment. These complexes, many dating back to the Soviet era, are far more resilient than energy facilities or logistical hubs currently hit by drone strikes. And only a couple months ago it was boasting about its own domestically produced cruise missile – the Flamingo. 

That leads to another question: where is the Flamingo cruise missile? Production was reportedly meant to reach 250 units per month starting in October, yet little evidence of this has surfaced. But in a recent interview, Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko confirmed that the new Flamingo long-range missile remains in testing and is not ready for serial production. While several launches have shown partial success, it has yet to achieve its claimed 3,000 km range. Kostenko cautioned against portraying Flamingo as Ukraine’s primary future weapon, stressing the need for more advanced systems. Experts added that although the missile shows promise, Ukraine’s broader missile programme must continue evolving to deliver more reliable long-range capabilities. Also, like we wrote about before, while this does pack a punch it is extremely large for a cruise missile and we believe the fear is that it would be easily spotted especially targeting long distance facilities. If this new missile was to fail or show lacklustre results, Russia would boast about it and it would damage Ukraine’s public support especially against already on-the-fence members in Trump’s team.

Sources:
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 18, 1867): Alaska purchase approved

On this day in 1867, after facing strong opposition, the agreement negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State William Seward to purchase Alaska from Russia was finally approved and the American flag was raised over the territory’s capital, Sitka.