THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Sudan to Sydney, today’s briefing spans violence against UN peacekeepers, a deadly shooting at a public holiday gathering in Australia, and fresh attacks targeting U.S. forces in Syria.

We also look at China’s national remembrance of the Nanjing Massacre and Iran’s latest diplomatic push toward Russia and Belarus as global fault lines continue to harden.

In today’s Deep Dive, we examine how the tanker seizure reflects a revived Monroe Doctrine mindset and a deliberate escalation of pressure on Venezuela.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Six U.N. peacekeepers killed in drone strike in Sudan
A drone strike hit a United Nations peacekeeping logistics base in Kadugli, South Kordofan, Sudan, on Saturday, killing six Bangladeshi peacekeepers and wounding several others, according to UN officials and mission sources. The peacekeepers were serving with the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), and UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attack, saying strikes on UN personnel may constitute war crimes under international law and calling for accountability. The Sudanese military blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group for the strike, a claim the RSF has denied, highlighting the dangers faced by international personnel amid Sudan’s long-running civil conflict.
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2. Shooting at Australia’s Bondi Beach Jewish Holiday event kills 12
On Sunday evening in Sydney, two gunmen opened fire at crowds gathered at Bondi Beach during a Hanukkah event, firing dozens of shots from a footbridge near the Bondi Pavilion and prompting widespread panic as people sought cover. The attack left multiple people dead and dozens wounded, with one suspect shot dead by police and the second taken into custody in critical condition, while authorities also found and removed a suspected explosive device from a vehicle. New South Wales Police urged the public to avoid the area as emergency services treated the injured and investigated the scene, and national leaders described the incident as “shocking and distressing.”
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3. China holds national memorial for Nanjing massacre victims
China held its 12th annual national memorial ceremony in Nanjing on December 13, 2025, to honour the roughly 300,000 victims of the 1937-38 Nanjing Massacre carried out by Japanese troops during World War II. The solemn event at the Memorial Hall of the Victims in Nanjing saw thousands gather, the national flag flown at half-mast, a moment of silence observed, and doves released as a symbol of peace. Chinese officials and participants emphasised remembrance of history and the importance of peace, marking the anniversary with speeches, wreaths and traditional rituals.
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4. Two U.S. soldiers and an interpreter killed in suspected Islamic State attack in Syria
Two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian American interpreter were killed on Saturday in central Syria’s Palmyra region when a lone gunman, suspected to be linked to the Islamic State (IS/ISIS), ambushed a convoy of U.S. and partner forces, the Pentagon said. The attacker was neutralised by partner forces, but the incident also wounded three other U.S. service members and several Syrian security personnel during the counter-terrorism mission. President Donald Trump vowed “very serious retaliation” against those responsible, underscoring Washington’s continued commitment to combating ISIS remnants despite the broader region’s fragile security environment.
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5. Iran’s foreign minister to visit Russia and Belarus, foreign ministry says
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is set to visit Russia and Belarus within the next two to three days, the Iranian foreign ministry said, underscoring Tehran’s efforts to strengthen ties with both Moscow and Minsk. The announcement by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei follows a recent meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement between Tehran and key partners.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE
TRUMP, OIL, MONROE AND MORE

Context
The Trump administration’s seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela has triggered serious legal and geopolitical questions, with international law experts warning the operation likely breached fundamental principles of maritime law. The vessel — reportedly the Skipper, sailing under a Guyanese flag and carrying roughly 1.1 million barrels of oil,  was seized in waters off Venezuela, far from US jurisdiction.

US Attorney-General Pam Bondi justified the action by claiming the tanker was part of an “illicit oil shipping network” linked to Iran and sanctioned under US law. However, the key issue is not whether the ship was sanctioned, but where and how those sanctions were enforced. Unlike UN Security Council sanctions, unilateral US sanctions do not grant legal authority to interdict foreign-flagged vessels on the high seas or in another state’s territorial waters.

Legal experts stress that unless a vessel is stateless, engaged in piracy, or subject to explicit UN mandates, such seizures violate the law of the sea. This distinguishes the incident from previous US actions, including the 2020 seizure of Iranian fuel cargoes, which relied on financial pressure rather than military boarding.

Complicating matters further, the tanker was reportedly sailing away from Venezuela, possibly toward Cuba,  raising unresolved questions about the oil’s origin and ownership. Caracas has condemned the seizure as “international piracy,” accusing Washington of acting outside any recognised legal framework. 

Is It Really About Oil?
Despite being one of the world’s largest oil producers, the United States has structural reasons to remain interested in Venezuela’s oil — and they have little to do with headline production volumes.

First, crude quality matters more than quantity.
Most US oil growth over the past decade has come from shale and fracking, which overwhelmingly produces light, sweet crude. Venezuela, by contrast, sits atop the world’s largest reserves of heavy and extra-heavy crude, concentrated in the Orinoco Belt. This matters because US refineries  (especially along the Gulf Coast) were deliberately built and upgraded over decades to process heavy crude efficiently. In 1978, heavy crude made up roughly 12% of US imports; today it accounts for around 70%. While Canada currently supplies about 61% of those heavy imports, Venezuelan crude is chemically similar and historically ideal for US refining infrastructure.
Second, Venezuela represents strategic optionality, not short-term supply.
Venezuela holds an estimated 303–304 billion barrels of proven reserves — more than Saudi Arabia and over four times US reserves. Yet production has collapsed to roughly 860,000 barrels per day, less than a third of its output a decade ago, due to sanctions, mismanagement at PDVSA, and decaying infrastructure. From Washington’s perspective, this gap represents latent capacity: oil that is not shaping markets today, but could under different political conditions.

Third, sanctions have created a paradox.
US sanctions were designed to choke Maduro’s revenue, but they also starved Venezuela of investment, spare parts, and expertise, accelerating decline. US refiners lost access to cheap heavy crude, while competitors stepped in indirectly. Chevron’s continued presence,  accounting for roughly 20% of Venezuelan production, shows that US corporate interest never fully disappeared.

More To The Story
It’s not often that footage like this is released, especially within such a short timeframe. That alone tells us this was intentional. Will the seizure of a single oil tanker materially change the broader picture we’ve written about before? No. But it does send a clear message to multiple audiences at once. First, it signals to U.S. adversaries — not just Venezuela, but also Iran and sanction-evading networks — that enforcement is no longer passive. Trump is keen to show that, in this theatre, nothing is off limits and grey-zone actions are firmly back on the table. Second, it deliberately raises pressure on Caracas. This fits into a gradual escalation pattern rather than a single dramatic move. By targeting energy lifelines and doing so publicly, Washington is attempting to create sustained domestic stress for Maduro, undermining confidence, complicating decision-making, and tightening the economic vise. I believe this strategy of slow strangulation to force America’s goals without direct confrontation. Third, there is a clear domestic dimension. The imagery reinforces the “law, order, and strength” narrative that Trump and Hegseth are actively reviving, projecting military confidence, enforcement, and deterrence without committing to open conflict. What ties this together is doctrine. The administration increasingly views the Americas through a revived Monroe Doctrine lens.  We’ve covered this a fair bit before; the Western Hemisphere as a U.S. sphere of influence where external actors, hostile regimes, and sanction-busting networks are not to be tolerated. In that context, the tanker seizure isn’t an isolated incident; it’s a statement of regional authority.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 14, 1542): The 6-day-old queen

Mary became queen of Scotland when her father, King James V, died on this day in 1542. She was six days old.