The Turkish Political Crisis Explained

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Ankara to Beijing, today’s headlines are packed with political power struggles and strategic realignments, as Turkey’s opposition HQ is stormed by riot police while China continues to deepen its diplomatic and economic footprint across Asia and beyond. In Washington, Marco Rubio is drawing firm lines on Iran nuclear talks, signalling that the U.S. is prepared to shift tactics if diplomacy fails.

Meanwhile, China is also pushing further into space with a landmark long-duration mission featuring Hong Kong’s first astronaut, while political tension simmers in Colombia as candidates wrap up a tightly contested election campaign. Rounding it all out, Xi Jinping’s meeting with Pakistan’s prime minister reinforces an increasingly tight strategic partnership at a time of rising regional instability.

In today’s Deep Dive, we examine the dramatic storming of Turkey’s main opposition headquarters by pro-government forces; and what this escalating political crisis could mean for the country’s domestic stability and its position within an already fragile regional balance.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Turkish riot police enter opposition headquarters to evict ousted leaders
Turkish riot police forced their way into the headquarters of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in Ankara after authorities ordered the eviction of party officials loyal to ousted leader Özgür Özel. The move followed a controversial court ruling that annulled the CHP’s 2023 leadership congress and reinstated former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, triggering a major political crisis and accusations from opposition figures of judicial interference aimed at weakening President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rivals. Clashes broke out as police used tear gas to clear supporters barricaded inside the building, further escalating tensions amid growing concerns over democratic backsliding and political instability in Turkey.
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2. Rubio warns US will seek ‘another way’ if Iran deal fails
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Washington would pursue “another way” of dealing with Iran if ongoing negotiations fail to produce what he described as a strong and enforceable agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking during a visit to New Delhi, Rubio said the Trump administration still prefers a diplomatic outcome and believes there is a “solid opportunity” for a deal, but stressed that the United States would not accept an agreement that fails to address Iran’s uranium enrichment and regional activities.
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3. China sends first Hong Kong astronaut on year-long space mission
China has launched its Shenzhou-23 mission carrying three astronauts to the Tiangong space station, including the first astronaut from Hong Kong to take part in a Chinese crewed spaceflight mission. One member of the crew is expected to remain in orbit for a full year as Beijing expands research into long-duration human spaceflight ahead of its planned crewed Moon landing by 2030. The mission highlights China’s accelerating space ambitions and comes amid intensifying competition with the United States over lunar exploration, space station development and broader strategic influence in space.
read more

4. Colombian Presidential candidates wrap up campaigns with big rallies
Colombia’s leading presidential candidates wrapped up their campaigns with massive rallies across Bogotá, Medellín and other major cities ahead of the country’s May 31 election. Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda narrowly leads in final polling, although surveys suggest he could face a difficult runoff against conservative rivals Paloma Valencia or businessman Abelardo De La Espriella if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The election has become increasingly polarised around security, economic policy and the future of President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” strategy, as Colombia faces rising violence from armed groups and growing economic pressure.
read more

5. China’s Xi meets Pakistan PM Sharif in Beijing, state media reports
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Beijing as the two leaders sought to deepen strategic and economic cooperation amid rising regional tensions linked to Iran and broader instability across South Asia. Discussions focused on expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), trade, energy investment and security cooperation, while both sides also exchanged views on the evolving Middle East situation and regional connectivity projects.
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Conflict Tracker

The Turkish Political Crisis

This crisis has been building for well over a year. Erdogan's crackdown on the opposition intensified through 2025, leaving hundreds of figures, including Istanbul mayor and presidential frontrunner Ekrem Imamoglu, in prison. Imamoglu was detained in March 2025, days before he was expected to be formally nominated as the CHP's 2028 presidential candidate, on charges ranging from leading a criminal organisation to bribery and money laundering, all of which he denies. His arrest triggered the biggest street protests Turkey had seen in a decade. The CHP itself is Turkey's oldest party, founded by Ataturk, and had been on a genuine electoral upswing. The party had been running roughly even with Erdogan's AKP in polls and had also faced an unprecedented judicial crackdown since 2024 in which hundreds of members and elected officials were detained on corruption charges the party denies. 

The Court Ruling That Set Off This Week's Events
On May 21, a Turkish appeals court annulled the results of the CHP's 2023 leadership congress, ousted party chairman Özgür Özel and his team, and reinstated former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as temporary leader. The stated legal basis was alleged vote-buying at that congress. Notably, a lower court had already thrown out this same case last year, finding it had no substance. Prosecutors then appealed and the higher court found in their favour.

The political optics of who replaced Özel are significant. Kılıçdaroğlu's return is likely to deepen anger among CHP supporters, as many already view the former leader as enabling or at least benefiting from the government's crackdown. He lost to Erdogan in the 2023 presidential election and had largely faded from public life since. The ruling named him interim leader as part of an ongoing probe into the party.  

The news sent Istanbul's main stock index down more than 6%. 

The 48 Hours Since: Standoff And Then A Raid
Özel refused to accept the ruling and called it a "coup attempt." Supporters barricaded the CHP headquarters in Ankara with buses in the courtyard and furniture inside the building. Party members and officials had been holed up inside for three days. Thousands rallied in Ankara and Istanbul on May 22 in protest. 

The timing of the eventual raid was notable. Police moved on Sunday at the start of a nine-day Eid al-Adha holiday, when many people are on vacation and out of the major cities, limiting the immediate capacity for mass protest response. On Sunday morning, riot police fired tear gas and forced their way into the building to evict the ousted leadership. Clouds of tear gas billowed inside while those within shouted and threw objects as police broke through the makeshift barricade. Supporters initially attempted to resist by spraying police with fire extinguishers. Doors, furniture, and ground floor windows were destroyed. Journalists present were removed by police once the raid began. 

Özel posted a video during the raid saying "we are under attack," and added that if forcibly removed, "we'll resume our march towards becoming the administration in the public square." He called on supporters to gather at three protest locations in Istanbul on Sunday evening. 

Where It Leaves The Opposition
It remains unclear whether the ruling invalidates Imamoglu's presidential candidacy, which was formally decided at the March 2025 party primary. The CHP has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation. Human Rights Watch called the court order "the latest deeply damaging blow to the rule of law, democracy and human rights" in Turkey. The core dynamic here is straightforward: the CHP had become the most credible electoral threat to Erdogan's two-decade hold on power, and the judicial system has now been used to imprison its most popular figure, strip the leadership of the party itself, and physically occupy its headquarters. Whether the protests that follow over the coming days reach the scale of the March 2025 movement will be the thing to watch.

My Analysis
What we are witnessing in Turkey is a pendulum swing in which the conservative Anatolian demographic has regained the initiative against the traditionally dominant western regions, which long held the institutional and cultural foundations of the secular order established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Since the rise and consolidation of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, this was always likely to become Turkey’s political reality. These are not merely competing political parties, but two opposing cultural pillars that have uneasily coexisted within modern Turkey for decades. As Erdoğan increasingly shaped his political movement around the more Islamist and conservative voting base, there was little chance of a return to the old balance. For both sides, this is no longer viewed as simply a political contest, but as a broader societal and civilisational struggle over the identity of the Turkish state.
Geopolitically the outcome matters just as much as it does domestically. The Republican People's Party has traditionally been less regionally provocative and has generally sought closer alignment with Europe. This stands in direct contrast to the foreign policy approach of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which can broadly be described as pursuing the regional expansion of a neo-Ottoman strategic vision.
The age of global democracy is fading, at least temporarily — so I would not expect too much political fallback especially from European partners, especially not regional rivals. With the added exception of a few harsh words, which we are all used to.

Sources
Available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

Yep, still bearish lol

TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 25, 2020): George Floyd, an unarmed African American man, was killed during an arrest in Minneapolis, Minnesota, setting off massive protests around the country and generating greater support for the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement; police officer Derek Chauvin was later convicted of his murder. An estimated 15–26 million people participated in protests in the summer of 2020, making BLM the largest protest movement in American history.