The Weekend Of Ceasefires (Ukraine and Middle East)

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Diplomacy is in overdrive: Vance lands in Pakistan for high-stakes Iran talks, while Israel and Lebanon prepare for rare face-to-face discussions in Washington, even as the U.S. moves to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Elsewhere, Putin calls a short Easter truce in Ukraine, offering a brief pause in fighting, while space delivers a win with Artemis II’s near-perfect return to Earth.

Today we cover both ceasefires in Ukraine for Orthodox Easter and the Middle East.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Vance arrives in Pakistan for peace talks with Iranian officials
U.S. Vice President JD Vance has arrived in Islamabad to lead high-level peace talks with Iranian officials aimed at stabilising a fragile ceasefire. The negotiations mark the most significant direct engagement between the two sides in decades, with both delegations seeking a pathway toward a longer-term agreement. However, major sticking points remain, including sanctions relief, the situation in Lebanon and control of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the talks.
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2. Lebanon and Israel officials to meet in US on Tuesday
Officials from Israel and Lebanon are set to meet in Washington on Tuesday for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at exploring a potential ceasefire and opening formal negotiations. The meeting follows preparatory discussions involving U.S., Israeli and Lebanese representatives, with the talks expected to take place at the State Department. Despite the diplomatic push, major challenges remain, including ongoing Israeli strikes, Hezbollah’s role in the conflict and deep divisions over ceasefire conditions, raising uncertainty over whether meaningful progress can be achieved.
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3. Trump says US ‘clearing’ Strait of Hormuz
Trump said American forces have begun “clearing” the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on removing sea mines and restoring safe passage for global shipping. He claimed U.S. operations had destroyed Iran’s minelaying capabilities and significantly weakened its naval presence, though these assertions have not been independently verified.
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4. Russia’s Putin declares ceasefire with Ukraine for Orthodox Easter
Vladimir Putin has declared a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine to coincide with the Orthodox Easter holiday, ordering a pause in fighting for around 32 hours. The truce, set to run from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, was announced by the Kremlin with the expectation that Ukraine would reciprocate, which Kyiv has indicated it will do.
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5. Artemis II returns to Earth in ‘perfect bulls-eye’ splash down
NASA’s Artemis II mission has successfully returned to Earth, with the Orion spacecraft achieving a precise “perfect bull’s-eye” splashdown in the Pacific Ocean after a 10-day journey around the Moon. All four astronauts were safely recovered and reported to be in good health following a high-speed re-entry that tested the spacecraft’s heat shield and parachute systems. The mission marks the first crewed lunar flight in more than 50 years and is seen as a major step toward future Moon landings under NASA’s Artemis program.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
The most significant diplomatic development of the current Middle East conflict is now underway in Islamabad, where the United States and Iran are holding their first direct talks since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Pakistan brokered the meeting after six weeks of active warfare that began February 28, when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeting Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and striking US bases and Gulf states across the region.

The US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, alongside envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's side is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.  Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir served as the primary architects of the two-week ceasefire that created the conditions for today's talks.

The negotiating positions remain substantially apart. Washington's core demands centre on full denuclearisation and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's position, outlined in its 10-point proposal, conditions any agreement on sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and a ceasefire in Lebanon before formal negotiations begin.

Lebanon is the main structural problem with the current framework. Israel has continued strikes on Hezbollah targets and explicitly refuses to halt them. Iran insists Lebanon is part of the deal. The US and Israel say it was never included. Pakistan's original ceasefire announcement said it was.

On the Strait, conflicting accounts have added further uncertainty. US warships crossed the Strait on Saturday in what officials described as a freedom of navigation operation not coordinated with Iran. Iran's version claims a destroyer was warned and turned back. The US has not confirmed that account.

The timeline is also a structural concern. Previous nuclear frameworks involved 18 days of talks. This round has one day scheduled, for what is effectively a comprehensive regional settlement covering nuclear constraints, sanctions, maritime access, and proxy conflicts. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton argued sending Vance was itself a concession, noting that allowing an adversary to effectively shape your negotiating team is a poor starting position. The analytical read from Bolton is that is that Washington wants an exit from an expensive conflict, and these talks are the mechanism for finding one. Let us know your thoughts below.

Russia-Ukraine
Both sides have agreed to a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, running from 4pm Moscow time on Saturday April 11 through to midnight on Sunday April 12. Putin announced it Thursday, Zelensky quickly confirmed Ukraine would honour it. On paper, guns down across the entire 1,250km front line.

But I would say don't hold your breath…

Last Easter, Putin declared a similar 30-hour pause. Zelensky later accused Russia of nearly 3,000 violations. Putin hit back accusing Ukraine of around 5,000 breaches. Both sides pointing fingers, nobody actually stopping. This year looks set to follow the same script.

On the ground right now, Ukrainian monitoring (such as Playfra) sources have already registered drone activity across the Kherson and Kostiantynivka fronts since the truce came into effect, though notably at a much lower tempo than the daily baseline.

Both sides will use relative quiet to push forward into the grey zone, those contested strips of no man's land between established positions where control is ambiguous and whoever gets there first wins the next phase of fighting. A ceasefire is free real estate for infantry consolidation. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv is going to leave that ground empty out of holiday spirit. Russia will be particularly keen on securing sites around east of Kramatorsk and on the southern front of Pokrovs’ke. 

Naturally, both sides used large scale drone attacks on one another targeting key infrastructure just before the ceasefire was meant to set in. 

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(April 11, 1814): Facing an invasion of France by forces bent on his overthrow, Napoleon abdicated unconditionally as emperor at Fontainebleau.