THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

In geopolitics today, fighting in Sudan’s El Fasher intensified as the RSF claimed key military gains, while the PKK announced a full withdrawal of its fighters from Turkey to Iraq in a historic peace move. In Europe, French police arrested suspects in the $100 million Louvre heist, and tensions rose in Cameroon ahead of contested election results, as Moscow dismissed rumours of a cancelled Putin–Trump summit.

In today’s deep dive, we break down Trump’s high-profile return to ASEAN and questions over whether the bloc’s unity still holds in the shadow of great-power politics.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Kremlin dismisses reports that Putin-Trump summit is cancelled
The Kremlin dismissed reports that the upcoming Putin–Trump summit had been cancelled, saying preparations were still underway. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said both presidents had tasked Sergei Lavrov and Marco Rubio with organizing the meeting, calling the process “complicated.” Peskov criticized new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil as “unfriendly,” but stressed Russia still seeks constructive relations with Washington despite the recent diplomatic strain.
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2. Two suspects arrested over Louvre heist
French authorities have arrested two suspects in connection with the dramatic Louvre Museum jewel heist that stunned Paris earlier this month. The theft, carried out on October 19, saw eight of nine priceless crown jewels stolen from a secure exhibition case, with an estimated value of around US $102 million. Investigators analysed over 150 DNA and fingerprint samples, uncovering evidence that points to a well-coordinated organised crime network. The arrests follow growing criticism of the museum’s security systems, with experts questioning how such a sophisticated operation could unfold inside one of the world’s most heavily guarded cultural institutions.
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3. RSF claims to capture major army HQ in the western region of Darfur
Fighting in El Fasher, North Darfur, has escalated sharply as Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have seized the Sudanese army’s Sixth Infantry Division headquarters — the last major government stronghold in the city. The army reportedly withdrew its remaining troops but continues to contest control. The RSF siege, ongoing for 18 months, has trapped roughly 250,000 civilians, worsening starvation and raising fears of mass atrocities as both sides face war crimes accusations.
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4. PKK to withdraw from Turkey and head to northern Iraq
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has announced it will withdraw all its fighters from Turkey to northern Iraq in what it describes as part of a new peace initiative with Ankara. The group said the move, endorsed by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan, aims to “avoid clashes or provocations.” This comes after the PKK’s earlier pledge to dissolve its armed structures, signalling a potential end to more than 40 years of insurgency and conflict with Turkey.
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5. Cameroon detains opposition figures ahead of presidential election results
Cameroonian authorities have detained around 30 opposition politicians and activists linked to presidential candidate Issa Tchiroma ahead of the official election results. Among those arrested are MANIDEM party leader Anicet Ekane and Union for Change figure Djeukam Tchameni, both of whom backed Tchiroma. The arrests come amid clashes between security forces and protesters after partial results showed President Paul Biya—aged 92 and in power since 1982—leading, prompting accusations of political intimidation and calls for nationwide demonstrations.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

ASEAN & TRUMP: SYMBOLIC, RELEVANT OR BOTH?

Trump’s Arrival to ASEAN
President Trump’s visit (his first since 2017) is as symbolic as it gets. Reportedly, he agreed to attend only if he could preside over the Thailand–Cambodia peace treaty. If true, his wish was granted, but it has raised fresh questions about ASEAN’s role and relevance. Most analysts agree that Malaysia, not the United States, was the driving force behind the initial peace process. But as they say, never let the truth get in the way of a good story. Did Trump play a role? Yes, certainly, and we’ll expand on that below, but it was Kuala Lumpur that led the main initiative.

Malaysia was critical in securing the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025, using its position as ASEAN Chair to convene emergency talks, leverage its neutral diplomatic posture, and host the negotiations that brought both countries to agree to an immediate halt in hostilities. Trump’s presence, however, has added weight to the agreement,  his prestige (and ongoing tariff talks) may remind both nations that upholding the peace aligns with their best economic interests. Still, many critics claim that the so-called “Trump peace deal” is simply a rebranded version of Malaysia’s earlier work. And do not think that tensions have necessarily eased; Malaysia is meant to have deployed peacekeeping forces to the border, this has yet to occur, and skirmishes continue despite the ceasefire.

The President is also eager to make a strong first impression on the very nations that the United States and China often compete to influence through soft power, given ASEAN’s immense economic, geographic, and political importance. His upbeat, charm-offensive approach, coupled with the peace deal and a series of early side agreements ahead of his meeting with Xi, appears to be a carefully crafted Trump strategy. 

Is ASEAN Being Overshadowed?
Some commentators have questioned Malaysia’s decision to spotlight President Trump so prominently, arguing that it undermines ASEAN’s image of collective, multilateral diplomacy. And it is true, at least on a media level,  much of the current summit’s coverage has indeed been dominated by side meetings between Trump and individual Southeast Asian leaders. Yet, ASEAN has continued to make tangible progress, and again, it was Malaysia that led the peace initiative between Thailand and Cambodia. Two reaffirmed priorities have also stood out.

First, the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), adopted in 2019, sets ASEAN’s vision for an open, inclusive, and rules-based regional order amid growing great-power rivalry. Rather than creating new institutions, it aims to strengthen existing ASEAN-led frameworks like the East Asia Summit. The AOIP focuses on four priority areas: maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainable development, and economic collaboration. These four pillars aim at reinforcing ASEAN’s role as a neutral convener for regional stability and unity.
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Second, the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), launched in 2024, represents a major upgrade in ASEAN–Japan relations, built on five decades of cooperation and aligned with the AOIP. It focuses on actionable projects,  from digital infrastructure and AI cybersecurity to renewable energy ventures such as green hydrogen and cross-border power grids by 2030. Japan has pledged significant funding for maritime domain awareness and humanitarian support, as well as expanded education and youth initiatives through the Asia Zero Emission Community and Next Generation Leaders programmes. The CSP runs until 2034, with milestones every two years with the primary goal of shifting ASEAN–Japan ties from symbolic dialogue to project-driven collaboration in technology, security, and sustainable growth.
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As many outlets have noted, a growing thorn in ASEAN’s side remains the civil war in Myanmar. Calls for stronger action continue, but ASEAN has yet to make concrete commitments beyond cautious statements. This highlights one of ASEAN’s defining characteristics, and what some would consider its main weakness compared to Western blocs like the EU,  the absence of shared values such as democracy or human rights. The organisation’s principle of non-interference, rooted in its founding vision, limits its ability to take decisive collective action. As a result, initiatives like the AOIP often advance unevenly. Both China and the United States continue to court individual ASEAN members directly, a pattern that underscores the bloc’s persistent unity problem.

Sources:
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 26, 312): Vision of the Cross

On this day in 312 AD, Emperor Constantine the Great is said to have seen a vision of the Chi-Rho, the Christian symbol formed by the first two letters of “Christ” in Greek, shining above the sun with the words “In this sign, conquer,” before his decisive victory at the Battle of the Milvian Bridge.