Trump Positive On Iran Talks, Afghan-Pakistan Eid Truce To End And More

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been another busy 24 hours across the geopolitical map — from a deadly runway collision at New York’s LaGuardia Airport to rising tensions in the Gulf after Iran warned it could target regional power infrastructure following an ultimatum from Donald Trump.

In London, police are investigating a suspected antisemitic arson attack that destroyed community ambulances, while in Pyongyang Kim Jong Un has been formally reappointed to North Korea’s top leadership role. Meanwhile, Russia’s key oil export hub at Primorsk is battling a major fuel fire after a reported drone strike.

In terms of our deep-dives, today we cover Trump’s latest positive statement about talks with Iran, updates on Pakistan-Afghanistan and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Two dead after Air Canada jet collides with ground vehicle at New York Airport
Two people, the pilot and co-pilot, were killed after an Air Canada Express regional jet collided with a firefighting vehicle while landing at New York’s LaGuardia Airport late Sunday night. The aircraft, arriving from Montreal with 72 passengers and four crew on board, struck the truck on the runway as it responded to a separate incident, leaving several others injured and causing significant damage to the front of the plane. Authorities temporarily shut down the airport and launched an investigation led by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration.
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2. Iran threatens Gulf power plants after Trump ultimatum
Iran has warned it could strike power plants and other critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf if the United States follows through on an ultimatum issued by Donald Trump. The warning came after Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power grid unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping within a set deadline. Iranian officials said such attacks would be met with retaliatory strikes on facilities supplying electricity to U.S. bases and regional partners, raising fears of further escalation and disruption to global energy markets.
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3. Ambulances set on fire in suspected antisemitic hate crime in London
Four ambulances belonging to a Jewish volunteer emergency service were deliberately set on fire in the Golders Green area of north London in the early hours of Monday, in what police are treating as a suspected antisemitic hate crime. The vehicles, operated by the Hatzola community ambulance service, were destroyed in an apparent arson attack that triggered explosions from gas cylinders and damaged nearby buildings, though no injuries were reported. Authorities have launched an investigation and are searching for suspects, with the incident drawing strong condemnation from officials and community leaders.
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4. Kim Jong Un reappointed as President of North Korea
North Korea’s parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly, has reappointed Kim Jong Un as president of the State Affairs Commission, the country’s top governing body, according to state media. The decision was announced after the assembly convened in Pyongyang for the first session of its new term, reaffirming Kim’s leadership for another term. The meeting also addressed state policy issues and leadership appointments as part of the country’s latest political reshuffle.
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5. Fuel reservoir in Russia’s Primorsk port on fire after drone attack
A fuel reservoir caught fire at Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk after a drone attack, according to the governor of the Leningrad region. The port is Russia’s largest western oil export hub and can handle more than one million barrels of crude per day, making it a key outlet for Urals crude and diesel shipments. Authorities said firefighters were working to extinguish the blaze and personnel were evacuated as air defences responded to multiple drones in the area.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
Trump’s recent Truth Social post stating that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure suggests a temporary step back from escalation, at least publicly, but take it with a grain of salt. And just moments after, Iranian media quickly countered this narrative, claiming there were no direct or indirect talks and that Trump “backed down” following warnings of retaliatory strikes on critical infrastructure like power plants. This is where escalation psychology becomes critical. Both sides are shaping narratives to avoid appearing weak while still managing risk. The U.S. frames the pause as strategic restraint and diplomacy, while Iran presents it as deterrence success. In this kind of standoff, perception matters as much as reality. Backing down openly can carry domestic and international costs, so both actors reframe actions to maintain credibility. The danger is that when neither side wants to appear weak, decisions become less about strategy and more about image, increasing the risk of miscalculation and sudden escalation.

Now the question is this truthful? We have to take this statement from Trump with extreme caution. He has actively been playing the markets since the conflict started – his posts on Truth Social can crash or lift markets with a single click of a button, and he knows this. Asian markets got hit hard following his original comments about hitting power stations just in the last 24 hours. The Trump narrative is a hard one to follow, and like we’ve said, this is a negotiation tactic of his – at the behest of our investment portfolios. 

Afghanistan-Pakistan
The temporary Eid ceasefire between Afghanistan and Pakistan has now expired, ending a brief pause in nearly a month of escalating cross-border fighting. The truce, pushed by Gulf mediators, was always framed as a short-term de-escalation rather than a shift in strategy.Islamabad has made clear its position remains unchanged. “Operation Ghazab-lil-Haq” is still active, with Pakistan reiterating its commitment to continue strikes against militant networks it claims operate from Afghan territory. The conflict, which intensified in late February, has included cross-border strikes and airpower, with disputed reports of mass-casualty incidents in Kabul further inflaming tensions. With both sides maintaining hardline positions and no lasting agreement in place, the end of the ceasefire signals a likely return to active operations in the coming days. For those not in tune with this conflict much of it stems from Pakistan accusing Kabul of allowing Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters to operate from Afghan territory. The Taliban denies this, but ideological ties and historical links between the two groups remain a major source of tension. The group has been a major source of terrorism for over a decade in north-western Pakistan. 

Russia-Ukraine
Fighting around Kostyantynivka continues to intensify, with both sides making localized gains while the broader battle remains positional. Ukrainian forces have recently advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway on the eastern edge of the city, indicating efforts to stabilise and reinforce key access routes. At the same time, Russian forces are maintaining pressure across multiple directions, including Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, and further south toward Pleshchiivka and Ivanopillya. The situation around Minkivka remains fluid, with parts of the northwestern outskirts described as contested “gray zones.” On the eastern approaches, Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division elements continue a slow but consistent push along the Dovhenkyi Ravine. Assault groups have secured positions in the “Metalurg” area and are now attempting to dislodge Ukrainian forces from nearby “Chemik” positions, which would open an additional axis toward the city. Further south, Russian units are targeting supply lines near Chasiv Yar, aiming to cut the Nowodymytrivka–Chasiv Yar route. While some tactical gains have been made, Ukrainian forces retain control of key high ground, which continues to complicate any full Russian advance. And like we’ve discussed, the Ukrainian presence in Chasiv Yar will continue to be a pain – as we can see Russian resource allocations are being put into cutting off troops, rather than expanding east around the town.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

An absolute sea of red.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 23, 2021): The Suez Canal, one of the world's most heavily used shipping lanes, was blocked after the mega-freighter Ever Given ran aground; it took six days to move the vessel.