Trump Shelves "Project Freedom", Tensions Rise After Sudan Strikes

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s another packed global brief, with a ceasefire in Ukraine already under strain, a U.S. strike in the eastern Pacific highlighting Washington’s expanding drug war, and fresh security concerns after a commercial vessel was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, legal tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel detains Gaza flotilla activists, while attention turns to great power politics with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping set to discuss Taiwan in a high-stakes meeting next week.

In today’s Deep Dive, we zoom in on the shifting US–Iran dynamic alongside a dangerous escalation in Sudan; unpacking Trump’s policy pivots, fragile diplomacy, and how drone warfare and regional spillover risks are reshaping both conflicts.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Ukraine says Russia violated ceasefire initiated by Kyiv
Ukraine has accused Russia of violating a ceasefire initiated by Kyiv just hours after it came into effect, with officials reporting continued drone and missile strikes across frontline regions. Ukrainian authorities said the attacks killed at least one person and injured several others, with strikes reported in areas including Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy despite the declared truce. Kyiv has criticised Moscow’s actions as undermining any genuine pause in fighting.
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2. U.S. Military strikes boat in Eastern Pacific, killing 3
The U.S. military said it carried out a strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific suspected of drug trafficking, killing three people, according to U.S. Southern Command. Officials said the boat was travelling along known smuggling routes and was linked to what Washington describes as “narco-terrorist” activity, with no U.S. personnel harmed in the operation. The strike is part of an expanding campaign launched in 2025 that has resulted in more than 190 deaths.
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3. French shipping firm says container ship ‘target of attack’ in Hormuz
French shipping giant CMA CGM said one of its container vessels, the San Antonio, was the “target of an attack” while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in injuries to crew members and damage to the ship. The company confirmed that injured crew were evacuated for treatment, while maritime authorities had earlier reported a cargo vessel being struck by a projectile of unknown origin in the area.
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4. Israeli court extends detention of two Gaza flotilla activists until May 10  
An Israeli court has extended the detention of two foreign activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla until May 10, following their interception by Israeli forces in international waters near Greece. The pair, a Spanish national and a Brazilian citizen, are being held on suspicion of offences including alleged links to hostile groups, though no formal charges have been filed. The case has drawn international attention, with Spain and Brazil calling for their release and rights groups arguing the detentions are legally unfounded.
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5. Trump, Xi likely to discuss Taiwan next week, U.S. says
U.S. officials say Taiwan is expected to be a key topic when Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing next week, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio said both sides want to avoid any “destabilising” developments around Taiwan, which remains a major flashpoint in U.S.–China relations. The meeting comes as Beijing increases military pressure on Taiwan, while the United States continues to back the island as its primary international supporter and arms supplier.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

USA-Iran
We’re in another game of guess Trumpian diplomacy. The biggest development in the last 24 hours is arguably a reversal: Trump quietly shelved Project Freedom on Tuesday evening, just 48 hours after launching it with considerable fanfare. The stated reason was "progress in diplomatic talks," though the optics are hard to ignore, Iran struck the UAE for a second consecutive day, a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait, and only two merchant ships had actually managed to transit under US protection. Tehran wasted no time framing it as a climb-down, with state media running headlines like "Trump Backs Down." And this is the issue, whether it's genuine diplomacy or a face-saving pivot remains unclear. Like I have repeatedly said, this is the masterstroke of Trump’s diplomatic strategy — you simply do not know what he is thinking or how he will act.

This also means that the diplomatic lane is now the active one. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi flew to Beijing for face-to-face talks with his Chinese counterpart (the first in-person meeting since the war began) signalling China is being pulled deeper into the mediation effort. Rubio confirmed the original combat operation against Iran is formally over, and the US blockade of Iranian ports stays in place as the primary leverage tool. The dual blockade (US squeezing Iran from the outside, Iran squeezing the Gulf from within) remains the defining dynamic. With hundreds of ships still stranded, global oil demand falling at its fastest pace since COVID, and ceasefire talks stalled, the situation is stable only in the loosest sense of the word.

What’s puzzling everyone is that Rubio is suggesting that with Operation Epic Fury being concluded, the goal is to now return to normalcy… Before strikes on Iran began… The irony is hard to miss.

Sudanese Civil War
A drone strike widely attributed to the RSF targeted the family residence of former RSF commander Abu Agla Keikel in eastern Al-Jazirah State, killing six people, including his brother Major Azzam Keikel, while Keikel survived unharmed. The attack forms part of a broader RSF drone campaign targeting leadership nodes, infrastructure, and rear-area military positions deep inside SAF-held territory. Recent strikes have hit Khartoum Airport, Kenana Sugar Company fuel depots, Omdurman supply routes, and El-Obeid infrastructure. Analysts believe the attacks demonstrate an expanding RSF long-range drone capability, allowing the group to project force without maintaining ground presence in central Sudan. Possible launch sites include Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz region or temporary positions in Kordofan. The strikes also appear aimed at punishing defections from the RSF, particularly after several high-profile commanders switched sides. The growing use of loitering and kamikaze drones highlights the SAF’s increasing difficulty in countering asymmetric aerial warfare.

The key takeaway here is whether this was launched from Ethiopia or not. If it was, this would be an unprecedented escalation in the region, turning internal state conflicts into something much more regional. And this is what seems to be the UAE strategy.

I recommend reading Sudanese Civil War Monitor for the full insight.

Sources
Available upon request
Sudanese Source

TWEET OF THE DAY

lol…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 6, 1937): Hindenburg disaster

On this day in 1937, while landing at Lakehurst, New Jersey, on its first transatlantic crossing of the year, the German dirigible Hindenburg burst into flames and was destroyed, killing 36 people.