Trump Willing To End Conflict Without Closing Strait? Russians Hit In Mali

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Italy and Spain blocking U.S. access signals growing Western friction amid the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, mass killings in Haiti highlight deepening instability. Knesset’s new death penalty law raises escalation risks, while Donald Trump considers an early exit strategy. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces pressure to ease energy strikes, linking war dynamics directly to global markets.

In today’s deep dive, we take a look at the Sahel region with alleged attacks on Russian mercenaries, we also dive into possible peace outcomes that the U.S. is proposing, and more.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Italy joins Spain in blocking air space to U.S.
Italy and Spain have both rejected U.S. requests tied to operations around Iran, signalling growing friction with Washington. Italy denied access to Sigonella air base after a mid-flight stopover was filed without formal approval, while Spain blocked its airspace for conflict-linked flights, including those from U.S. assets in allied countries. The moves suggest rising European reluctance to be directly involved, and point to early signs of strain within the broader Western alignment.
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2. At least 70 killed in gang massacre says rights group
At least 70 people were killed in a gang attack in Haiti’s Artibonite region, significantly higher than official estimates of around 16. The assault displaced thousands and involved coordinated raids and arson across rural communities. The United Nations has called for an investigation, as armed groups continue expanding their reach beyond Port-au-Prince amid a worsening security vacuum.
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3. Knesset passes legislation making death penalty default for ‘nationalistic killings’
Knesset has passed legislation making the death penalty the default punishment for West Bank Palestinians convicted of nationalistic killings. While capital punishment existed, it was rarely used (last applied in the Execution of Adolf Eichmann). The law formalises a dual-track system, Palestinians face military courts and mandatory execution, while Israeli citizens retain judicial discretion. Beyond punishment, it signals political intent and escalation. Analysts warn it may fuel retaliatory cycles, complicate negotiations, and increase international legal pressure on Israel
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4. WSJ sources say Trump open to ending conflict without opening Strait Of Hormuz
Reports indicate Donald Trump is willing to end the Iran campaign without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prioritising strikes on Iran’s missile and naval capabilities instead . The move suggests a potential early exit strategy, despite ongoing escalation and troop deployments. At the same time, leadership decapitation in Iran has complicated negotiations, empowering hardliners while disrupting decision-making, creating a volatile mix of military pressure and uncertain diplomatic pathways.
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5. Zelensky said allies urged him to ease attacks on Russian oil infrastructure
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said some Western partners have privately urged Ukraine to scale back long-range strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure as global energy prices surge . U.S. officials were reportedly involved in conveying these signals, with initial pressure possibly originating from Moscow. Kyiv indicated it is open to reciprocation, proposing reduced strikes if Russia halts attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. The shift comes as fuel shortages and supply disruptions intensify, linking battlefield decisions directly to global energy stability.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Sahel Region
Forces aligned with the Azawad movement launched a coordinated drone and artillery strike on March 30 against Malian army positions and Russian Africa Corps (The successor of Wagner) elements in Anafif, located in the Kidal region. The attack reportedly involved kamikaze drones followed by shelling, targeting a joint military position in the area.

Footage and local reporting indicate significant damage to the base, with smoke seen rising from the site in the aftermath. According to sources linked to the Azawad Liberation Front, the strike resulted in multiple casualties among Malian forces and Russian personnel, alongside notable equipment losses. These claims remain unverified, and the Malian government has not issued an official response at this stage.

The use of drones highlights a continued shift toward asymmetric tactics by rebel forces, increasing pressure on Malian and allied units operating in northern regions. The conflict in northern Mali centres on Tuareg separatist groups seeking independence for Azawad, clashing with Malian government forces and allied Russian contractors. Following the withdrawal of French forces, Russia-backed units have taken a larger role, while insurgent groups continue to exploit terrain and mobility advantages in the north.

The separatists are different to Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin.  Reports suggest the Malian government and JNIM have agreed to a temporary truce, potentially halting attacks on fuel convoys until May. This would mark another instance of negotiated pauses during JNIM’s economic warfare campaign. However, attack intensity has already declined since early February, with no recent strikes on fuel convoys, mining sites, or kidnappings of foreign nationals. This slowdown is likely driven by internal pressures, improved military responses, and JNIM achieving key objectives. Despite this, fuel shortages persist due to earlier disruptions, and core tactics like kidnappings and industrial attacks may resume.

Video source for attack

Iran-Israel-USA
Strikes in Isfahan Province have reportedly hit unspecified “military sites,” according to local officials, following heavy bombardment. Damage and casualties remain unclear, but the location is critical. We did see footage released, even reshared by Trump suggesting one of the missile bases was hit. Secondary explosions were immense which helps prove this .Meanwhile, tensions continue to build in the West Bank. Israeli raids, arrests, settlement expansion, and continued restrictions around religious sites point to a secondary escalation track that risks being overshadowed but not contained.

In Europe, Italy and Spain closing airspace signals growing discomfort. Whether precautionary or political, it reflects a widening gap between U.S. actions and allied risk tolerance. What we are seeing is European powers pushing boundaries to assess U.S. reaction, it also signals that European powers (at least some) don’t believe the U.S. is winning this war at the moment.

More concerning is the rhetoric coming from Marco Rubio. The stated objectives, destroying Iran’s air force and navy, crippling missile capabilities, and targeting industrial capacity, represent a significant escalation and a clear shift in goalposts. This has shifted from regime change to degrading Iranian defence capabilities - by all accounts this would be seen as a political failure for the Trump administration.

Rubio Source Video

At the same time, reports suggest Washington may still be open to a negotiated outcome, even without resolving key issues like the Strait of Hormuz. This contradiction raises questions. Either the objectives are unrealistic, or they are being deliberately inflated to create leverage, or to mask a lack of clear end-state.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 31st, 1889): In 1889, the Eiffel Tower was formally inaugurated in Paris with a ceremony for dignitaries. Designed by Gustave Eiffel for the Exposition Universelle, the 300-metre structure became the tallest man-made building in the world, holding that title for 41 years.