THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From high-profile White House meetings to fresh tensions in Europe and the Middle East, it’s been a busy 24 hours in geopolitics.

We’re tracking everything from Moldova’s pivotal elections to new naval deployments in the Mediterranean and early signals of a possible thaw between Washington and Tehran.

And in today’s deep dive, we’re exploring the complexities of Turkey’s regional power geopolitically.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump hosts Erdogan at the White House as U.S. weighs F-35 ban lift
President Trump is set to host Turkey’s President Erdoğan at the White House as U.S. officials consider lifting a long-standing ban on F-35 sales to Ankara. The original ban was imposed after Turkey purchased Russia’s S-400 missile system, which Washington argues poses intelligence risks to the F-35 program. Erdoğan’s visit marks an attempt to reset the defence relationship, with talks expected on weapons deals, broader trade, and Turkey’s strategic role in regional conflicts.
read more

2. Moldova faces key Parliamentary election on Sunday, with EU bid at stake
Moldova is holding a high-stakes parliamentary election Sunday that could decide whether the country continues its bid to join the EU. The ruling pro-European party faces weakening support and may struggle to form a majority, even as authorities accuse Russia of investing heavily in subversive campaigns to derail pro-Western momentum. With over 70 arrests already tied to alleged election interference and increasing raids, many view this vote as a litmus test for Moldova’s sovereignty and the durability of its European alignment.
read more

3. Trump to meet Pakistan PM on Thursday as U.S.-Pakistan ties improve
Trump is slated to host Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the White House this Thursday, signalling a warming of U.S.–Pakistan relations. The meeting follows a recently signed trade agreement and comes amid a broader shift in Washington’s South Asia strategy, where Pakistan is being reassessed as a strategic partner. Observers interpret the visit as an effort by both sides to reset ties, counterbalance India, and pursue cooperation on security, trade and regional challenges.
read more

4. Spain, Italy deploy warships to protect Gaza flotilla
Italy has dispatched a second navy ship to escort the Global Sumud Flotilla, which delivering aid to Gaza and has come under drone attacks in international waters. A Spanish warship will also be dispatched from Cartagena to support and protect the Flotilla. The first frigate, Fasan, was already deployed after reports of drone-launched stun grenades and communication jamming near Gavdos, Greece, and the new vessel is meant to heighten protection. While the flotilla aims to challenge Israel’s naval blockade, Rome has urged activists to hand over aid via Cyprus and has warned against entering restricted waters to avoid escalation.
read more

5. Iran and U.S. in Washington signalled possible easing in nuclear tensions
Iran’s president told the U.N. that Tehran has never sought, and will never pursue, nuclear weapons, positioning its program as strictly peaceful amid renewed pressure from Europe to reimpose sanctions. In response, U.S. officials expressed openness to resuming talks to resolve the standoff, signalling a possible diplomatic thaw after months of escalating tension. While both sides claim interest in dialogue, deep mistrust and red lines mean any breakthrough remains uncertain.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Turkey A Complicated But Powerful Geopolitical Regional Power

U.S.–Turkey Relations: Barrack’s “Legitimacy” Reset
U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Special Representative for Syria Tom Barrack’s remarks highlight how the Trump administration is seeking to reset one of Washington’s most complicated alliances. His central claim “everything is misunderstood”, reflects the persistent ambiguity of U.S.–Turkey relations, which swing between necessity and mistrust. Barrack argues that disputes like the S-400 purchase, F-35 ejection, F-16 stalemate, and the Halkbank case are symptoms rather than the core issue. For him, the real challenge is “legitimacy”: whether the U.S. recognises Turkey as not only a NATO ally but also a regional power deserving respect. Under Trump’s transactional style, this recognition is seen as a way to overcome Erdoğan’s frustration with EU exclusion and U.S. skepticism. The potential payoff is renewed cooperation in defense, counterterrorism, and regional stability, though risks remain from congressional opposition, Turkey’s ties to Russia, and suspicion on both sides. Ultimately, Barrack’s emphasis on legitimacy reflects a Trumpian bet that personal diplomacy can patch structural divides, a gamble whose durability is still uncertain.

Now why the big interest in Turkey? Well, moving away from economic partnerships, Ankara commands significant influence in the region.

Turkish Foreign Involvement
A lot can be said about Turkey’s domestic policies, economy and such forth - but we’re avoiding that and focussing on its geopolitical presence. It has definitely solidified its position as a major regional power. Recently, Turkey has been able to end a decades long conflict that has led to much internal strife by formally ending the conflict with the PKK.

Ankara’s investment in Syria eventually paid off. Relations with Al-Sharaa’s (Jolani)’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham were rocky, as Turkey’s rebel groups often clashed with HTS, but ties improved with their shared goal of countering Assad. Since 2025, Turkey has shifted from assisting in Assad’s removal to acting as an architect of Syria’s future, mixing political normalization and high-level talks with Syria’s interim leadership. Ankara continues to expand buffer zones against the SDF/PYD while leveraging economic and security influence to shape post-war governance. 

Turkey maintains a robust military and strategic footprint in Libya, with about 3,000 personnel including conventional troops, private military contractors, and intelligence operatives. Its forces operate out of multiple bases (ground, special forces, and airbases)  while sustaining a naval presence off Libya’s coast. Ankara also deepens economic and energy ties: Libya is Turkey’s second largest African trading partner (≈ USD 4.5 billion), Turkish firms are heavily involved in Libyan infrastructure (e.g. Tripoli airport), and a recent deal opens oil exploration in Libyan offshore blocks. 

Many also don’t know but Turkey has a significant relationship with Somalia. Turkey cemented its presence in the Horn of Africa with the opening of its Mogadishu base in 2017, then the largest overseas facility built by Ankara, intended to train over 10,000 Somali soldiers. In February 2024, a 10-year defense pact was signed to modernize Somalia’s Armed Forces, prioritizing naval capabilities to secure the country’s EEZ. In July of this year, an expanded agreement at the IDEF defense fair reaffirmed Turkey’s financial, training, and equipment support.

Turkey has fundamentally reshaped the regional balance of power at Russia’s expense. By backing Azerbaijan in the 2020 and 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh wars with drones, training, and intelligence, Ankara enabled Baku to reclaim disputed territories while sidelining Moscow, long the dominant external power broker. Today, Turkey was instrumental in pressing Armenia and Azerbaijan toward direct the peace talks that were finalised at the White House. Turkey has effectively checkmated Moscow’s influence and positioned itself as the region’s central guarantor.

Double Sided Geopolitical Game
The U.S. has traditionally been wary of strengthening ties with Turkey because President Erdoğan is adept at playing both sides. The Russia relationship illustrates this double game most clearly: Ankara maintains strong economic and military cooperation with Moscow, from energy pipelines to arms deals, while simultaneously supporting rebel factions in Syria that have fought Russian forces.
In Libya, the two back opposing camps, with Turkey aiding the Tripoli government and Russia’s Wagner mercenaries supporting Haftar, exposing another fault line in their partnership. In Ukraine, Turkey has supplied Bayraktar drones and diplomatic support to Kyiv, directly aiding its defence against Russia while still refusing to join Western sanctions on Moscow. At the same time, trade between Turkey and Russia has boomed, with bilateral commerce exceeding $60 billion annually, supported by energy imports and a massive flow of Russian tourists that sustains Turkey’s economy. This blend of confrontation and cooperation highlights why Washington sees Ankara as an unreliable partner, willing to undercut both Russia and the West when it suits its strategic interests.

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Judging by this meme, Biden may still be living in Trump’s head rent-free…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(September 25, 1513): Pacific Ocean sighted by Balboa

On this day (or two days later) in 1513, Spanish conquistador and explorer Vasco Núñez de Balboa, standing “silent, upon a peak in Darién,” on the Isthmus of Panama, became the first European to sight the Pacific Ocean.