U.S. Leaves Syria After 12 Years, Israeli-Lebanon Fragile Truce

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A fragile ceasefire takes hold in Lebanon as global tensions ripple outward, from shipping routes in the Gulf to political pressure in London.

Meanwhile, moments of reflection and symbolism cut through the noise, from a royal visit in Sydney to a massive papal gathering in Cameroon. It’s a day where diplomacy, politics and public sentiment are all pulling in different directions.

U.S. forces have left their base in northern Syria handing it over to Syrian troops, as Israel and Lebanon commence an uneasy truce.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes effect
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come into effect, marking a pause in weeks of intense fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah. The truce, brokered by the United States following rare direct talks in Washington, is intended to create space for negotiations toward a longer-term peace agreement. Despite the halt in major hostilities, the situation remains fragile, with Israeli forces maintaining positions in southern Lebanon and both sides warning the ceasefire could collapse if violated.
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2. EU urges Iran to drop transit fee plans in Hormuz Strait
The European Union has urged Iran to abandon plans to impose transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that such charges would violate international law governing key shipping lanes. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the waterway must remain open and free of charge for global maritime traffic, adding that any “pay-for-passage” system could set a dangerous precedent for international trade routes.
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3. Prince Harry and Meghan meet with survivors of Bondi terror attack
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have met with survivors of the Bondi terror attack during the final leg of their visit to Sydney. The couple visited the Bondi Surf Bathers' Life Saving Club, where they spoke with survivors, first responders and community members affected by the December attack that killed 15 people and injured dozens. They also met representatives from the Sydney Jewish Museum and viewed materials for a planned exhibition commemorating the attack, as part of broader efforts to support remembrance and community healing.
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4. UK’s Starmer under fire to resign over report Mandelson failed security vetting
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing mounting political pressure after reports revealed that former ambassador Peter Mandelson failed a key security vetting process before his appointment. Investigations found that security officials initially denied Mandelson clearance, but the decision was later overridden by the Foreign Office, with the government saying Starmer was unaware at the time. The controversy has triggered calls for greater transparency and accountability, with critics accusing the government of misleading parliament and raising concerns over oversight of sensitive appointments.
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5. Jubilant crowds throng giant papal mass in Cameroon
Large crowds gathered in Cameroon as Pope Leo XIV led a major open-air Mass attended by around 120,000 people during his Africa tour, with the event marked by a celebratory atmosphere despite tight security. During his visit, the Pope strongly criticised global leaders he described as “tyrants,” accusing them of fuelling conflict and prioritising war spending over humanitarian needs. The remarks came days after public attacks from Donald Trump, highlighting an escalating war of words between the two figures as tensions rise over the Iran conflict and broader global instability.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Middle East
On Thursday April 16, the final US convoy rolled out of Qasrak Air Base in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province, ending a military presence that began in 2014 when US forces entered the country to fight ISIS alongside Kurdish fighters. Trucks carrying armoured vehicles and equipment headed overland through Jordan rather than Iraq, a routing chosen specifically to avoid Iranian-backed armed groups operating along the Iraqi corridor. What was interesting to see was the amount of fresh Turkish armoured vehicles and equipment being used in the transfer – symbolic of the regional geopolitical shift? You tell me. 

Qasrak was the last domino. Before it, the US had already pulled out of al-Tanf near the Jordan-Iraq border, al-Shaddadi south of Hasakah, the al-Omar oilfield in Deir Az Zor, and Rmeilan near the Iraqi border. Syria's army 60th Division moved into Qasrak within hours of the Americans leaving. 

The withdrawal follows a January deal between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who had been Washington's main partner on the ground for a decade. Under the agreement, Kurdish fighters are being folded into the Syrian national army and border crossings have transferred to Damascus's control. Syria also joined the international coalition against ISIS in November, which fundamentally removed the core justification for a US ground presence. This is why the 60th Division was moved into Qasrak, as they’re primarily made up of Kurdish fighters which were recently integrated.

Around 1,000 troops were involved in the final drawdown. Some equipment was destroyed on site before departure, standard procedure to keep sensitive material out of other hands.

The ISIS threat hasn't gone away though. Sleeper cells continue staging attacks across Syria and Iraq, and how that gets managed without US boots on the ground remains the open question.

Lebanon-Israel
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