U.S. Proposes 15-Point Peace Plan? The Upcoming Russian Offensive

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines span everything from troop movements to political shake-ups and some unexpected diplomatic travel. Washington is preparing to send paratroopers to the Middle East as tensions with Iran rise, Tehran is pushing back on claims of negotiations, and Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko has landed in North Korea for talks with Kim Jong Un.

Meanwhile in Europe, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen has stepped down after an election setback, and Estonia is investigating a drone that crossed from Russia and struck a power station.

Today we cover the 15 point peace plan that’s been floating around, as well as my comments about the expected Russian offensive this year.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Around 2,000 US Paratroopers to be sent to the Middle East
The United States is preparing to deploy around 2,000 paratroopers from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials, as tensions with Iran continue to escalate. The troops are part of the military’s rapid-response “Immediate Response Force,” capable of deploying on short notice and securing key locations such as airfields or strategic infrastructure if required. The move is seen as giving President Donald Trump additional military options in the region as Washington weighs its next steps in the conflict and broader buildup of forces.
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2. Iran military spokesperson says US is negotiating with itself
An Iranian military spokesperson said the United States is “negotiating with itself,” according to Iranian state media, dismissing Washington’s claims that talks are underway between the two countries. The remark came after Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and suggested Tehran was seeking a deal to ease tensions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iranian officials have repeatedly denied direct negotiations with the U.S., maintaining that any contact has been indirect or exaggerated by Washington amid the broader standoff and military escalation in the region.
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3. Belarusian President Lukashenko arrives in North Korea for talks with Kim Jong Un
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in North Korea for official talks with leader Kim Jong Un, marking Lukashenko’s first visit to the country. The trip follows Kim’s earlier invitation and is expected to focus on expanding bilateral cooperation and potentially signing a friendship and cooperation treaty between the two countries. Both governments are close partners of Vladimir Putin and have faced Western sanctions, with the visit seen as part of broader efforts to strengthen ties among Russia-aligned states.
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4. Denmark Prime Minister resigns after election defeat amid coalition
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has submitted her government’s resignation after her coalition suffered a major defeat in the country’s latest parliamentary election. Her Social Democrats recorded their worst result in more than a century, winning significantly fewer seats, although the party remains the largest in parliament and could still play a central role in forming the next government. With neither the left-leaning nor right-leaning blocs securing a majority, Denmark is now expected to enter potentially lengthy coalition negotiations to determine who will lead the next cabinet.
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5. Estonia says drone enters from Russia, hits power station, ERR reports
Estonia said a drone entered its airspace from Russia and struck the chimney of the Auvere power station, according to the country’s Internal Security Service and public broadcaster ERR. Authorities reported no injuries and said the country’s power infrastructure was not damaged, while an investigation was launched to determine the circumstances of the incident. Officials also noted that other drones crossed into neighbouring Latvia’s airspace around the same time, and it was not immediately clear where the drones originated.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
Reports have emerged that the United States has put forward a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war with Iran. The plan, reportedly circulated via Israeli Channel 12, outlines a framework that combines sanctions relief with strict limitations on Iran’s nuclear program.

At its core, the proposal offers full removal of sanctions, U.S. assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program, and guarantees against future sanctions. In exchange, Iran would freeze its nuclear activities, halt further development, and accept strict international monitoring. Key facilities such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan would be taken out of use, while enrichment would continue under limits and supervision. Missile restrictions are deferred, and implementation would be phased.

Iran has denied any negotiations entirely. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated there are “no talks… not through an intermediary,” adding, “we’ve had a very catastrophic experience of U.S. diplomacy,” referencing past negotiations that coincided with strikes. He went further, saying U.S. claims of diplomacy are “not credible… they started this war and continue to attack Iran.” Iranian military leadership has taken an even harder line. Khatam al-Anbiya spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari mocked the proposal directly: “Don’t call your failure an agreement… have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?” He added, “our first and last word has been the same… we will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever.”

At the same time, Iran’s position appears to be hardening. Reports suggest demands for guarantees against future attacks, compensation, and recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz, while continuing to reject any limits on its missile program.

My two cents? This peace plan, if real, has Kushner and Witkoff written all over it. It may be an initial first step to gauge what the Iranians want, at least to get some sort of diplomatic dialogue moving. While this does look promising, if we read between the lines it would mean opening up Iran to U.S. influence as a start. It also ignores the elephant in the room, Israel, who has proven it is willing to act on its own if need be. And frankly, the Iranians are right in their suspicion and doubts about any peace plan given Trump’s history with negotiations that lead to surprise attacks. 

Russia-Ukraine
Not much of an update on this one, more so some comments from me regarding the trajectory of this conflict.

The longer this conflict drags on, the more costly it becomes for the Russian side in manpower, material, and the economy. We won’t touch on the broader economic factors here, that will be for a later special edition. But at a certain point, we have to consider whether this is becoming a sunk cost fallacy for Putin. I’ll touch on some recent trends I’ve noticed.

Ukraine can still launch local counterattacks
This is very telling for two reasons. First, Ukrainian units still possess offensive capabilities, at least at a local level. We haven’t seen a major operation that shifts the battlefield strategically, but if we zoom in, particularly on the Pokrovsk front, a new tactic is emerging. We’re seeing combined operations involving mechanised assaults supported by drone swarms. I’ll preface this by saying it’s still in early development, but it has shown promise, reportedly pushing the frontline back around 10km from Pokrovske. Is this strategically decisive? Not necessarily. But for every kilometre gained, it buys time to build defences, which leads to the next point.

Russian losses
Russian losses have increased significantly since 2025, largely due to a shift from mechanised assaults to infantry-led operations. This has been compounded by a strategy associated with Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, who leads Ukrainian drone units, focusing primarily on targeting infantry rather than vehicles or static positions. It sounds simple, but the effect is cumulative. Some estimates suggest losses are approaching monthly recruitment levels. If that trend continues or scales further, increased conscription may become necessary, bringing potential internal pressures.

Strategic strikes
One area where Russia has maintained an advantage is in its ability to produce and launch missiles. Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has been disruptive but largely manageable, mainly because drones struggle to destroy heavily reinforced Soviet-era industrial facilities producing missiles, drones, and armour. That may begin to change. European support is increasing, both in supplying missiles like Storm Shadow and assisting Ukraine’s domestic production. Early systems like the FP-5 Flamingo were underwhelming, but recent improvements and confirmed strikes suggest progress. If Ukraine can begin to threaten Russian strategic assets in the same way its own are targeted, it could start to shift momentum, especially alongside the ongoing campaign against Russian air defence systems, particularly in Crimea.

So what will this offensive look like? Expect to see more mechanised assaults for the points I provided in the first two sections. Russia is nearing its goals of taking Donbas but the hardest battle is yet to even begin. Kramatortsk and Slovyansk would be the largest cities the Russians would be fighting for since the war began — almost double the size of Bakhmut. Expect to see more assaults, more pressure, more armour in an attempt to disrupt and break Ukrainian lines as the cost of this war continues to compound.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

Apparently it’s going to get worse before it get’s better…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 25, 1807): First passenger railway line begins operations

On this day in 1807, the first fee-paying passenger railway began operating in Wales. It was eventually known as Mumbles Railway, and it became the longest-running locomotive line in the world. Passengers, however, were an afterthought; the train was designed with industry in mind. By 1823 a 16-person horse-drawn carriage made a trip twice a day along the railway line. After electricity arrived in 1928, double-decker trams began running, and millions of passengers were riding the line annually by the 1940s. After World War II, however, plunging passenger demand could no longer justify costs of operating the line. A funeral (featuring an empty coffin) was held for the line on January 4, 1960.