U.S. Targets Islamic State Leader In Nigeria

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines span everything from fragile ceasefires to fresh outbreaks and growing unrest: with Israel and Lebanon extending their truce, U.S. and Nigerian forces targeting ISIS leadership in Africa, and Cuba facing deepening economic and energy pressures.

Meanwhile, health authorities are scrambling to contain a deadly new Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while protests over rising fuel prices in the Comoros have turned violent amid broader frustration over inflation and living costs.

And in today’s deep dive, in an unprecedented move, Nigeria and the U.S. have taken out a key ISIS warlord and various high-level officials in the Lake Chad Basin

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon extended by 45 days
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their current ceasefire by 45 days following two days of US-brokered talks in Washington aimed at preventing renewed conflict along the border. The truce, originally set to expire this weekend, will remain in place while negotiations continue over border security, Hezbollah’s role in southern Lebanon, and the possibility of a longer-term political agreement between the two countries. Despite the extension, tensions remain high, with both sides continuing to accuse each other of violations and sporadic strikes still being reported in parts of southern Lebanon.
read more 

2. US and Nigerian forces kill senior ISIS commander, Trump says
Donald Trump said American and Nigerian forces killed a senior ISIS commander during a joint operation in West Africa, describing the mission as a major blow to the group’s global leadership structure. Trump identified the militant as Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, whom he called ISIS’s “second-in-command globally,” saying intelligence sources had tracked his movements across the region before the operation was launched. The strike highlights Washington’s expanding counterterrorism cooperation in Africa, where Islamist militant groups linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda continue to operate across parts of the Sahel and northern Nigeria.
read more

3. CIA Chief visits Cuba as energy crisis worsens
CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Havana for rare high-level talks with Cuban officials as the island faces a deepening energy crisis marked by severe fuel shortages, rolling blackouts, and growing public unrest. During the visit, Ratcliffe reportedly met senior Cuban intelligence and interior ministry officials to discuss security cooperation, economic stability, and broader US–Cuba relations, while also delivering a message from President Donald Trump urging “fundamental changes” in Havana. The trip comes amid heightened tensions between the two countries, with the United States maintaining heavy economic pressure on Cuba as the island struggles with worsening shortages of oil and electricity.
read more

4. New Ebola outbreak confirmed in DR Congo, 80 deaths  
Health authorities have confirmed a new Ebola outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with at least 80 deaths reported in Ituri province as officials race to contain the spread of the virus. The outbreak involves the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which complicates response efforts because existing vaccines and treatments are primarily designed for the more common Zaire strain. Regional health agencies and the World Health Organization have launched emergency response measures amid fears of cross-border transmission into neighbouring countries including Uganda and South Sudan.
read more

5. One dead in Comoros as clashes erupt over rising fuel prices  
At least one person was killed and several others injured in the Comoros after protests over rising fuel prices escalated into violent clashes with security forces in the capital, Moroni. Demonstrators blocked roads and set fire to vehicles and buildings after the government announced another increase in fuel costs, which officials said was necessary due to mounting fiscal pressures and higher global energy prices. Authorities imposed overnight curfews in parts of the archipelago as opposition groups accused the government of mishandling the economy amid growing public frustration over inflation and living costs.
read more

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CONFLICT TRACKER

Sahel-Region
US and Nigerian forces killed a senior ISIS commander on Friday, with President Trump announcing the operation had "greatly diminished" the militant group's power. Trump named the target as Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as second-in-command of ISIS globally, born in 1982 in Nigeria's northeastern Borno State, which borders Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Nigeria's State House confirmed that al-Minuki and several of his lieutenants were killed during a strike on his compound in the Lake Chad Basin.

Al-Minuki operated at the centre of ISWAP, the Islamic State Western African Province, the organisation that grew out of Boko Haram after its 2015 pledge of allegiance to ISIS. ISWAP controls a significant stretch of northeastern Nigeria and maintains a presence across Niger, Cameroon, and Chad. It holds territory, provides limited social services to communities where the Nigerian state is absent, and funds itself through abductions, arms trafficking, taxation of trade routes, and raids. Since 2022 it has dramatically escalated attacks on civilians, and the Lake Chad Basin now accounts for roughly 14% of all Islamist militant activity globally, nearly double the 2019 figure.

The Diplomatic Thread
This strike did not happen without context. Months earlier, Trump had threatened Nigeria with military intervention if Abuja failed to stop what he called a mass slaughter of Christians. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed Friday's operation in explicitly religious terms, saying the US had "hunted this top ISIS leader in Nigeria who was killing Christians." With Trump's approval rating at a second-term low of 37%, a counterterrorism win framed around the protection of Christians lands well with his evangelical base, a constituency that has increasingly focused on persecution narratives abroad as the Gaza conflict has quietened.

A Partnership, Not an Intervention
What is worth noting is that this was a joint operation, not a unilateral strike. Nigerian President Tinubu thanked Trump directly, saying Nigeria appreciated "this partnership with the United States in advancing our shared security objectives." Abuja had pushed back firmly on Trump's earlier rhetoric while keeping the door open for counterterrorism cooperation, and that approach has worked out for both sides. Washington gets a foothold in the Sahel security picture at a moment when Russian influence across the region is visibly struggling. Nigeria gets a meaningful blow against a group that has destabilised its north for over a decade.
Trump's confrontational posture toward Nigeria earlier this year was always as much a negotiating tool as a genuine threat, this is the classic Trumpian diplomacy we should all be used to by now.

If we read the National Security Strategy of 2025, Africa is on the bottom of the totem poll of this administrations foreign policy focus – but that doesn’t mean it’s not important. Africa is resource rich and who can control the vast mines possess vast amounts of soft power projection. For example, it’s the reason the UAE is so heavily invested in the Horn of Africa, the UAE is a gold-churning machine and it needs access to those gold mines. However, for Washington this presents an opportunity to expand relations with Nigeria, one of the few major nations with a large growing population and a major power broker in the central African region. It’s also an easy propaganda win for the evangelist-base that supports Trump, who will be pleased with an attack on what they would consider Anti-Christian forces.

US Africa Command released a video of the strikes below:
https://x.com/USAfricaCommand/status/2055614134851424487

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