THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A mix of tragedy, diplomacy, and political change shaped headlines overnight.

From a fatal cargo plane crash in Hong Kong and renewed violence in Gaza, to Bolivia’s sharp political shift under President-elect Rodrigo Paz, it’s been a busy start to the week. Belarus has also made a surprise call for dialogue with Ukraine, while Iran’s latest execution of an alleged Israeli spy has raised fresh regional tensions.

After analysing Pokrovsk, we’re heading further north we’re the key frontline city of Lyman is at risk of becoming the next major battleground.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Cargo aircraft skids off a Hong Kong runway into the sea, killing 2
A cargo Boeing 747 freighter, arriving from Dubai, skidded off the north runway at Hong Kong International Airport early Monday and plunged into the sea after colliding with a security patrol vehicle. Two ground-staff members inside the vehicle were killed, while all four crew members on the plane emerged unhurt.
read more 

2. Israel says ceasefire and aid to resume after wave of strikes kill 26 in Gaza
The Gaza Strip cease-fire was restored by Israel on Monday after a wave of strikes killed 26 Palestinians, including a woman and a child, following the deaths of two Israeli soldiers. Despite the earlier suspension of humanitarian aid into the territory, Israel has now agreed to resume aid deliveries under U.S. pressure, even as both sides warn the truce remains fragile. The latest incident highlights how a single flare-up can threaten the broader U.S.-brokered peace deal, with questions still lingering over returning hostages’ remains and the enforcement of the agreement’s terms.
read more

3. Senator Rodrigo Paz wins Bolivia’s Presidential runoff vote
Rodrigo Paz has been declared the winner of Bolivia’s presidential runoff with around 54.5% of the vote, defeating Jorge Quiroga who garnered about 45%. His victory marks the end of nearly two decades under the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) and signals a clear shift toward a more pro-business, centre-right agenda in Bolivia. Now facing a deep economic crisis, Paz has pledged to open the economy, reduce subsidies and rebuild ties with the U.S., though he’ll likely need to build alliances in a fragmented legislature to execute his agenda.
read more

4. Belarus security chief seeks dialogue with Ukraine
Ivan Tertel, head of Belarus’s security agency, announced that Minsk is actively seeking dialogue with Ukraine in hopes of helping broker a settlement to the more than three-and-a-half-year-old war with Russia. Tertel stressed that reaching a regional consensus “depends a lot on the Ukrainian side” and that Belarus’s president is working to stabilise the situation. The move comes as Belarus seeks to break out of Western isolation and position itself as a potential mediator in the conflict, even while maintaining its alliance with Russia.
read more

5. Iran executes individual accused of spying for Israel
Iran executed an individual on Saturday after convicting him of spying for Mossad, its judiciary-run Mizan news agency reported. The report said the man was accused of leaking classified information to Israel, and that his death sentence was upheld by the Supreme Court before the execution took place. The move comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel and underscores Tehran’s escalated crackdown on alleged espionage amid its growing regional security concerns.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

LYMAN AT RISK, RUSSIA AT THE GATES

Since the end of 2022, Lyman had remained under Ukrainian control, with the front line seemingly distant from the once-bustling town of over 20,000 residents. Yet now, nearly three years later, the war has returned to its doorstep. Russian forces have steadily advanced toward Lyman, capturing a series of surrounding villages along the way.

At The Gates
Russian forces have recently made confirmed advances in the Lyman direction, securing several new positions over the past week. They entered the first houses of Drobysheve from the northwest and took control of a large part of the forest west of Zarichne, expanding their foothold in the area. Over the last six days, Russian troops also captured multiple trench lines, creating a broader buffer zone west of Zarichne. Further south, they advanced north of Yampil, seizing several defensive positions and extending DRG operations along the road linking Yampil and Zarichne. Earlier reports of fighting southwest of Myrne remain unconfirmed, with Ukrainian forces reportedly still holding parts of the settlement’s south. Russian attacks also continue near Novyi Myr, Stavky, and Serednie, though these appear to be probing actions. Ukrainian sources state that Russian forces are fortifying in the Serebryanske forest, likely preparing for larger assaults toward Yampil. Despite fewer daily engagements compared to September, Russian casualties have increased, and Ukrainian drone units recently destroyed a TOS-1A thermobaric system in the sector.

Russia Has The High Ground 
The escalation in recent gains in recent weeks can be thanked to the Russians highground advantage that had stemmed all the way back from the village of Zeleni Dolma. Since then, the Ukrainians have had the height disadvantage. We’re seeing the end of these heights at the Lyman forward-defense towns of Drobysheve and Novyi Myr. With the first assaults already taking place, these will be the next objective before the major assaults begin on Lyman. 

The South
To the south we’re seeing a larger grouping of Russian units north of Yampil. Yampil sits near the main road that connects Lyman and Siversk. It is in Russia’s interest to take Yampil to sever the vital supply line to Siversk, which in theory could force a Ukrainian retreat out of one of the most heavily defended towns in eastern Ukraine. What is also interesting, if we take a look back to the previous deepstate screenshot, Playfra has suggested Russians have broken through the first (weakest) defensive lines for Lyman. What kind of units these are, nobody is sure yet.

Distance Matters, Not Just Control
As we’ve discussed before, Lyman served as a crucial frontline logistical hub for the Russian army in 2022. It was intended to be a joint launching pad with Izyum for assaults on the last Ukrainian-held cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The main challenge for Russian forces, however, was crossing the river—an area dense with woodland and limited routes for pontoon bridges. Many well-known videos from that period showed Russian armour being destroyed in failed crossing attempts.

Another key factor is artillery and drone coverage. By controlling Lyman, Russia would gain broad access to the highway network linking Izyum, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka, enabling full utilisation of artillery of all ranges and expanded drone operations. If Russian forces control everything east of the river, their drone teams would have a singular focus: to disrupt supplies, logistics, and communications to the last major Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast.

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

Playfra, Suriyak, and Divgen, Deepstate, ISW.

TWEET OF THE DAY

X & the platform we use to send out our newsletters 😂😇

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 20, 1973): Opening of Sydney Opera House

Australia's Sydney Opera House—designed by Danish architect Jørn Utzon, whose dynamic, imaginative, and problematic plan won an international competition in 1957—was opened by Queen Elizabeth II on this day in 1973.