Ukraine War Update And Zelensky's New Plan

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From a fatal military crash in Turkey to fresh security laws at home, today’s headlines move quickly across conflict, diplomacy and trade.

We’re covering tightening gun and counter-terror measures in Australia, renewed military coordination between Syria and Russia, a sharp legal response from Caracas as pressure builds at sea, and Washington’s decision to slow-roll chip tariffs on China amid a fragile truce.

In today’s Deep Dive, we’ll examine how recent frontline shifts around Kupiansk and Hulyaipole shape Ukraine’s position, and what Zelensky’s peace plan means for the war’s endgame.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Libya’s top military chief killed in plane crash in Turkey
Libya’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad, was killed on December 23 along with four other senior military officials and three crew members when the private Dassault Falcon 50 jet they were aboard crashed near Ankara, Turkey, shortly after takeoff while returning from official defence talks. Turkish authorities located the wreckage near the village of Kesikkavak in the Haymana district after the aircraft lost radio contact and had issued an emergency landing request, and Turkish prosecutors have launched an investigation into the incident.
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2. Australian state passes tougher gun, anti-terror laws after Bondi shooting
In response to the December 14 mass shooting at Bondi Beach, the New South Wales (NSW) Parliament passed sweeping new gun control and anti-terror laws, described by officials as the toughest in the state’s history. The Terrorism and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2025 caps individual firearm ownership at four guns (with higher limits for farmers), tightens licensing requirements, bans the public display of symbols linked to proscribed terrorist groups, and gives police enhanced authority to restrict protests for up to three months after a declared terror attack.
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3. Syria ministers discuss military cooperation with Putin in Russia
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani and Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss expanding military, political and economic cooperation between Damascus and Moscow. State media reported the talks focused particularly on strengthening military-industrial partnerships, modernising Syrian army equipment, sharing expertise and enhancing defence capabilities, as well as coordinating on broader political and diplomatic issues. The visit marks continued engagement between the new Syrian leadership and Russia, with both sides affirming support for deeper collaboration amid evolving regional dynamics.
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4. Venezuelan National Assembly passes law against piracy and blockades
Venezuela’s ruling-party-controlled National Assembly unanimously passed a new law that criminalises what it describes as “piracy, blockades and other international illicit acts,” imposing prison sentences of up to 20 years for people who promote, finance or participate in such activities against the country’s trade and maritime commerce. he legislation, formally titled the “Law to Guarantee Freedom of Navigation and Commerce Against Piracy, Blockades, and Other International Illicit Acts,” was adopted during an extraordinary session and comes directly in response to recent U.S. seizures and attempted interceptions of oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude in international waters.
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5. US delays China chip tariffs until 2027 amid trade truce
The U.S. government announced on Tuesday that it will impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports over Beijing’s “unreasonable” efforts to dominate the global chip industry, but will delay the tariffs until June 2027, with the specific rate to be disclosed at least 30 days before they take effect. This postponement comes amid a fragile trade truce between Washington and Beijing, as officials seek to maintain leverage while avoiding immediate escalation of economic tensions that could disrupt global technology supply chains.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Ukraine Map Update And Zelensky’s Peace Plan


Ukrainian forces have made localized gains around Kupyansk, with geolocated footage from December 22 indicating advances south of Zapadne. Fighting has intensified across the wider Kupyansk axis, with Russian forces attacking in and around the city, as well as east, southeast, and south of Kupyansk. Russian milbloggers reported multiple Ukrainian counterattacks north and west of the city.

Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) stated on December 23 that Ukrainian units are successfully counterattacking and have cut off remaining Russian elements in Kupyansk from logistics. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian troops are conducting clearing operations roughly 1.5km from the city centre, estimating that only 80–100 Russian soldiers remain. Ukrainian forces are reportedly clearing the city house by house, surrounding isolated Russian groups and steadily pushing toward the centre, while Russian attempts to break the encirclement from the north have failed.

Russia has reinforced the area with additional drone units, but operations are constrained by weather, long flight times from east of the Oskil River, and ongoing drone shortages further south toward Lyman.

Russian forces have intensified operations in the Hulyaipole direction, making notable gains over recent days. After a brief period of partial stabilisation, renewed assaults collapsed the northern section of Ukraine’s defences. Ukrainian counterattacks north of the Haichur River, aimed at expanding a bridgehead, were repelled, and Russian troops pushed from the agricultural buildings area, ultimately eliminating the bridgehead altogether.

Building on this momentum, Russian forces crossed the Haichur River into western Hulyaipole, establishing a foothold along Travnya 1st Street near the school and the Michurina Street intersection. This position was later linked with an older bridgehead to the northwest, creating a continuous front in the city’s western sector.

Simultaneously, coordinated assaults in the city centre advanced from the hospital-area bridgehead, capturing the high school, police station, district museum, additional apartment blocks, and the administrative building. In the south, Russian troops eliminated a Ukrainian pocket, seized surrounding residential areas, and consolidated positions in multiple high-rise buildings, though progress there has slowed.

Zelensky Unveils Plan
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has outlined a revised peace framework that introduces the possibility of demilitarised or free economic zones in eastern Ukraine, marking a significant evolution in Kyiv’s negotiating position. The updated 20-point plan, agreed with US negotiators in Florida, is described by Zelensky as the core framework for ending the war and includes strong security guarantees from the US, NATO, and European partners—designed to mirror NATO’s Article Five.

While Ukraine remains opposed to withdrawing from its territory, the plan explores options for a demilitarised or free economic zone in parts of Donetsk still held by Ukraine. Any pullback of Ukrainian forces would be matched by equivalent Russian withdrawals and the area would remain under Ukrainian administration and policing, with international forces monitoring the contact line. Zelensky stressed that no “Russian police” would be allowed.

Sensitive territorial issues would ultimately be decided at the leadership level and ratified by a national referendum. The plan also proposes Ukraine maintaining a peacetime force of up to 800,000 troops, reaffirming sovereignty, and allowing Ukraine to join the EU with a defined accession date. NATO membership is not explicitly barred.

Zelensky acknowledged that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to accept compromises on Donbas, having threatened to seize the entire east by force. Talks are ongoing, with Washington expected to relay the proposal to Moscow via US envoy Steve Witkoff.

We will go into detail on this after Christmas lunch tomorrow, Merry Christmas all!

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Emirates is based, Air France… not so much.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 24, 1877): The tinfoil speaking machine

On this day in 1877, the U.S. Patent Office received an application for a “Phonograph or Speaking Machine” from inventor Thomas Edison. He had demonstrated the device for the first time a few weeks earlier, when he played his recorded (and sometimes unintelligible) voice to magazine staffers in New York City.