Ukraine War Update: Huliaipole-Pokrovske and Kostiantynivka.

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s headlines span from naval brinkmanship off Venezuela’s coast and Colombia bracing for fallout, to Washington making bold claims on Venezuelan oil.

Elsewhere, Bangladesh looks to Pakistan for fighter jets, while Yemen’s fragile peace efforts wobble as a key separatist leader goes missing ahead of talks in Riyadh

In today’s Deep Dive, we’re taking a look at the two developing frontlines of Huliaipole-Pokrovske and Kostiantynivka.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Russia sends submarine to escort oil tanker the US plans to seize
Russia has deployed a submarine and additional naval vessels to escort an oil tanker that the United States has been trying to seize off the coast of Venezuela, in what U.S. officials and media say is a highly unusual maritime move that heightens geopolitical tensions. The vessel, formerly known as Bella 1, reflagged itself as Marinera under the Russian registry during a prolonged U.S. pursuit after evading a boarding attempt and fleeing a U.S. blockade, complicating Washington’s legal basis for interception. Moscow has formally protested the U.S. pursuit and said it is monitoring the situation.
read more 

2. Colombia prepares for refugee influx after U.S. strikes on Venezuela
Colombian authorities are stepping up preparations for a potential surge of Venezuelan refugees following U.S. military strikes in neighbouring Venezuela and the controversial capture of President Nicolás Maduro, deploying thousands of soldiers to its border and establishing emergency command posts in key frontier cities to coordinate security and humanitarian responses. The government, which already hosts around three million Venezuelan migrants and refugees, has activated a “border plan” that includes reviewing food, healthcare and shelter capacity, while humanitarian agencies and the International Organization for Migration stand ready to assist with food, education and protection services if crossings increase.
read more

3. Trump says Venezuela will be ‘turning over’ up to 50 million barrels of oil to U.S.
Trump said on Tuesday that interim authorities in Venezuela will be “turning over” between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil to the United States, with the barrels to be sold at market price and the proceeds controlled by the U.S. government. Trump posted the plan on his Truth Social platform and directed U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright to implement it “immediately,” stating the oil will be loaded onto storage ships and brought directly to U.S. docks.
read more

4. Bangladesh eyes JF-17 deal with Pakistan as defence ties deepen
Bangladesh and Pakistan are in discussions over a potential defence deal that could include the procurement of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, with senior air force officials from both countries holding detailed talks in Islamabad about the multirole aircraft and broader military cooperation. The meeting between Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan and his Pakistani counterpart focused on expanding operational cooperation, institutional synergy, training support and capacity building, alongside consultations on fast-track delivery of Super Mushshak trainer aircraft and long-term support.
read more

5. Yemeni separatist leader Zubaidi flees ahead of Saudi-UAE talks in Riyadh
Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), fled to an unknown location on Wednesday instead of boarding a plane to Riyadh for scheduled peace talks, Saudi-led coalition officials said, leaving the future of negotiations to resolve southern tensions in doubt. The coalition accused Zubaidi of mobilising armed forces in Aden and subsequently launched limited airstrikes in the southern province of al-Dhalea to counter what it described as an escalation, while Yemeni authorities stripped him of his position and charged him with treason.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

UKRAINE WAR UPDATE - HULIAIPOLE / POKROVSKE

Fighting has intensified across the Pokrovskaya and Huliaipole fronts as both sides expand reconnaissance-in-force operations. Since late December, Ukrainian DRG units increased activity around Vishneve, briefly entering the settlement before being eliminated. At the same time, Ukrainian forces crossed the Haichur River south of Nove Zaporizhzhya and north of Varvarivka, pushing several kilometres into sparsely held terrain. Russian units have since stabilised the line and are mopping up remaining infiltrators. In early January, Russian DRGs launched counter-operations in Pryluky, Zelene, Sviatopetrivka, and Staroukrainka, where intermittent skirmishing continues, signalling a mutual shift toward probing actions ahead of larger manoeuvres.

Zaliznychne is a tactically important village and Ukraine has launched localised counterattacks in recent days to dispel Russian attempts to enter the village. Why, you might be asking? This village sits on elevated heights which, if taken, will provide Russian units with a launching pad to begin pushing westwards – outflanking the fortifications systems that point southward. This would therefore explain the attempts to flank around the village which will force pressure on Ukrainian units to pullback, given that early frontal assaults were pushed back. 

Kostiantynivka
To paraphrase for Playfra, who has good contacts around this part of the frontline: The situation remains negative (for Ukraine), with trends offering little encouragement. In the Berestok sector, Russian forces have again penetrated toward the southern outskirts and pushed as far as northern Illinivka, expanding the grey zone beyond the former blockpost. This is no longer an isolated incident; Russian infantry are confirmed present, including wounded, and the situation remains under clarification. In Ivanopillya, Russian groups continue moving through the settlement and attempting westward crossings toward Berestok, so far without success. Around Kostyantynivka, Russian forces are massing in the Dacha area and conducting deep raids across the highway and rail lines, though no lasting gains are expected. In Predtechyne, attacks along the highway persist but are being repelled.

We’re seeing similar trends that we saw in Pokrovsk and Huliaipole, where DRG units did not have significant difficulty entering the cities. The problem for Ukrainian units defending this front is that it’s a large target for FAB strikes – which have become extremely accurate. Unit blocks that are identified as defensive positions are simply quad tapped by 500kg FAB’s. What is interesting to me is that these DRG units are having success whilst Ukraine still holds the western flank. Another issue is in recent months the main supply roads connecting the city to Kramatorsk-Sloviansk is a hotspot for FPV drone targetting, which has complicated logistics substantially. Most expect to see Russian units pushing east of Nove Shakove in an attempt to create a pincer movement on Kostyantynivka. However, if they can enter and most importantly consolidate, we might not see a focus on this pincer movement just yet. 

Sources
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