Ukrainian Drones Penetrate Moscow, Ukraine Deploys Domestic KAB's

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Global tensions continue to simmer overnight, with everything from fighter jets falling out of the sky in Idaho to Ukrainian drones striking fuel infrastructure just outside Moscow.

Across the Middle East, fresh drone incidents in the Gulf and a new Iranian proposal delivered to Washington via Pakistan suggest diplomacy and escalation are now moving side-by-side, while Syria’s invitation to G7 finance talks signals just how quickly regional alignments are shifting.

In today’s deep dive we analyse Ukraines latest drone attacks on Moscow and newly released footage showing Kyiv’s domestically-produced KAB bombs.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Fighter jets collide mid-air at U.S. Air Force show
Two U.S. Navy E/A-18G Growler fighter jets collided mid-air during the “Gunfighter Skies” air show at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho, sending both aircraft crashing to the ground in front of spectators. All four crew members successfully ejected and parachuted to safety before impact, with U.S. military officials confirming that no fatalities were reported despite the dramatic crash and resulting fireball. The incident has prompted an investigation by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, while the remainder of the air show was cancelled following the collision.
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2. Drones strike Solnechnogorsk Oil loading station in Moscow region
Ukrainian drones struck the Solnechnogorsk oil loading station in Russia’s Moscow region overnight, triggering a fire at the facility located roughly 40 kilometres northwest of the Russian capital. Russian authorities said air defence systems intercepted hundreds of drones across multiple regions, though videos circulating on social media showed large flames and smoke rising from the fuel infrastructure site near the village of Durykino. The strike formed part of one of Ukraine’s largest long-range drone operations of the war so far, with Moscow-area airports also facing temporary disruptions amid the attacks.
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3. UAE, Saudis report drone incidents amid Iran deadlock
The UAE and Saudi Arabia both reported separate drone-related security incidents over the weekend as regional tensions linked to the ongoing Iran standoff continued to escalate. UAE officials said a drone strike caused a fire near the Barakah nuclear power plant without disrupting operations or causing radiation leaks, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted three drones that entered its airspace from Iraq. The incidents come as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked over Iran’s nuclear program and security in the Strait of Hormuz.
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4. Syria to join G7 finance talks in Paris in sign of growing status  
Syria is set to participate in closed-door talks with G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Paris, marking a significant diplomatic step less than two years after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad. Syrian Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh is expected to attend discussions focused on Syria’s economic recovery and reintegration into the global financial system, as Western governments gradually ease the country’s isolation. The move is being viewed as a sign of Syria’s growing international legitimacy under its new leadership.
read more

5. Revised Iranian proposal to end war shared with US, Pakistani source says  
Pakistan has shared a revised Iranian proposal with the United States aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to a Pakistani source familiar with the discussions. The proposal reportedly includes updated conditions from Tehran as diplomatic negotiations remain stalled, with officials warning that both sides continue to shift their demands during talks. The development comes amid heightened regional tensions and growing speculation over potential U.S. military action against Iran if negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Russia-Ukraine
Ukraine has reportedly developed its own domestically produced analogue to Russia’s KAB glide bombs, marking another step in Kyiv’s efforts to expand its indigenous strike capabilities.

According to Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the 250kg guided munition is capable of striking targets at ranges of “dozens of kilometres” and can be launched from Su-24M tactical bombers. The weapon is currently undergoing experimental use and has not yet entered frontline service. The munition appears conceptually similar to western precision-guided glide bombs such as the JDAM-ER, AASM Hammer, and GBU-39/B. Rather than creating an entirely new strike capability, it would likely strengthen Ukraine’s existing frontline air power by allowing aircraft to release guided munitions from safer stand-off distances.

This also highlights a broader long-term concern for Russia. Many of Moscow’s early wartime advantages came from its larger industrial and economic base, but some of those gaps are gradually beginning to narrow as Ukraine’s domestic defence industry expands and adapts under wartime conditions. That trend is expected to accelerate further with continued EU and NATO funding, technical assistance, and industrial cooperation, potentially allowing Ukraine to sustain and scale more of its own weapons production over time.

See footage here

Ukraine hit Moscow with one of its largest drone attacks of the war overnight on Saturday, sending swarms across the capital's supposedly impenetrable air defences and setting off fires visible across the city. Russia's Defence Ministry claimed it intercepted 556 drones nationwide, with more than 120 shot down over Moscow and its surroundings alone. The scale was striking, but so was what got through.  

Not for the first time, Ukrainian drones managed to penetrate the defence perimeter around the Russian capital. Synchronised drone swarms were filmed flying low over the suburban towns of Khimki, Lobnya, and Naro-Fominsk before reaching targets inside the capital limits. What is most striking to me is that Moscow is one of the most defended sites on the planet, with at least two “rings” of air defence systems numbering around 100+ SAM’s — yet, slow and high heat signature drones are casually passing through Moscow suburbs with no threat at all.

Ukraine's Security Service said its forces struck two oil pumping facilities, an oil refinery, and the Angstrom plant, which supplies semiconductors to Russia's military-industrial complex. An oil storage station at Solnechnogorsk near the village of Durykino, a key transit node connected to pipeline rings encircling Moscow, was also confirmed hit by OSINT analysts. Pillars of black smoke rose across the northwestern suburbs.   

Three people died in the Moscow region and a fourth in the Belgorod region, with 12 people injured mostly near the entrance to Moscow's oil refinery. Debris also fell on the grounds of Sheremetyevo, Russia's busiest airport, without causing damage.  Zelenskyy said the drones had flown more than 500 kilometres from Ukrainian territory and that Ukraine was "overcoming" Russian air defence systems concentrated around the capital.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 18, 1896): “Separate but equal”

On this day in 1896, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 7–1 decision (with one abstention), decreed in Plessy v. Ferguson that racial segregation was not unconstitutional so long as states provided “equal” facilities. In practice, it gave legal cover to the perpetuation of deeply unequal public systems, including schools.