THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A lot unfolded overnight, with everything from Washington’s political restart to rising diplomatic tensions and fresh climate protests shaping the global picture.

Today’s top stories span government gridlock, street-level activism, and major new security and trade moves across several regions. It’s one of those mornings where the headlines feel scattered, but together they paint a pretty clear picture of how unsettled the geopolitical landscape remains.

The U.S. has announced it’s new Operation Southern Spear and we’re looking at what that just means for the South America continent.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. US Government opens back up but deep political divisions remain
The U.S. federal government reopened after a 43-day shutdown with President Donald Trump signing a spending package to resume funding for most agencies. However, key issues like healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act remain unresolved, leaving deep political divisions between parties unhealed. The agreement runs only until January 30, setting the stage for another potential shutdown unless bipartisan agreement is reached.
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2. Protesters block entrance to COP30 climate talks in Brazil
Indigenous protesters blocked the main entrance to the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, forcing delegates to use side entrances and prompting heightened security measures. The activists demanded stronger action on land rights, forest protection and meaningful Indigenous representation in climate talks. Organisers described the protest as peaceful and said negotiations would continue, but the disruption underscores growing frustration with the pace and scope of climate diplomacy.
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3. Azerbaijan protests to Russia’s ambassador over damage to Kyiv embassy
Azerbaijan has formally summoned Russia’s ambassador after one of Moscow’s Iskander missiles struck and damaged its embassy in Kyiv, tearing down part of the perimeter wall, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said. Fortunately, there were no injuries reported among the embassy staff, but the incident has sharply escalated diplomatic tensions between Baku and Moscow. Azerbaijani officials described the blast as unacceptable and urged Russia to acknowledge responsibility.
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4. US, South Korea unveil details on shipbuilding & subs in trade deal
The U.S. and South Korea unveiled the details of a sweeping trade-and-investment deal that includes a US$150 billion South Korean investment in U.S. shipbuilding and up to US$200 billion more earmarked for American strategic industrial sectors. The agreement also paves the way for Seoul to build nuclear-powered submarines in partnership with Washington and expands cooperation in AI and the nuclear energy sector.
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5. EU Officials debate training 3,000 Palestinian police officers from Gaza
EU foreign ministers are set to debate a proposal for the bloc to train 3,000 Palestinian police officers from Gaza, as part of a broader 20-point plan for the region. The initiative would expand the EU’s current civilian missions to support border control and policing reforms. However, the plan’s future is far from certain, with political divisions inside the EU and unresolved questions about how to scale up to train all 13,000 officers.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

OPERATION SOUTHERN SPEAR

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has unveiled Operation Southern Spear, a new military initiative aimed at countering what he describes as “narco-terrorist networks” operating across the Caribbean and northern South America. The mission, run through U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), is framed as a major effort to disrupt drug trafficking routes, strengthen maritime security, and expand U.S. influence in what the administration calls “America’s neighborhood.” While the Pentagon portrays it as a fresh strategic push, analysts note it is still unclear whether Southern Spear represents a true expansion of U.S. operations or merely a rebranding of long-standing activities focused on Venezuela and surrounding waters.

This news comes as the U.S. build up gets a new edition. The USS Gerald R. Ford, America’s most advanced aircraft carrier, is moving toward Venezuelan waters. The mission is officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation in the Caribbean. Analysts say the deployment also increases military pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government. Venezuela has responded with a nationwide military mobilisation as tensions rise.The carrier’s arrival marks one of the strongest U.S. power projections in Latin America in decades.

According to extensive research at Reuters, the United States is rapidly rebuilding and expanding its military footprint across the Caribbean in preparation for potential operations involving Venezuela. A major focus is the revival of the long-abandoned Roosevelt Roads naval base in Puerto Rico, where crews are repaving taxiways, installing air-traffic systems, erecting tent facilities, and positioning Marine Corps aircraft — effectively transforming it back into a functional staging hub. Similar upgrades are underway at Rafael Hernández Airport in Puerto Rico and Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix, which now host Reaper drones, radar systems, ammunition storage construction, and mobile air-traffic control towers. At sea, the U.S. has deployed at least 13 warships, a nuclear submarine, and support vessels, including destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, now moving toward Venezuelan waters. Air operations have surged, with B-1B Lancers, B-52 bombers, F-35s, P-8 Poseidons, and dozens of C-17 cargo flights operating across the region.

Polymarket may be increasingly convinced that an attack is imminent, but it’s important to step back and consider the broader strategic context. For the Trump administration, the Western Hemisphere is not just another region – it sits at the heart of the long-standing Monroe Doctrine, the 19th-century U.S. policy asserting that North and South America fall firmly within Washington’s sphere of influence and should remain free of external great-power interference.What we’re seeing now is a modern revival of that doctrine. The deployment of U.S. naval power, intensified operations in the Caribbean, and growing pressure on Venezuela all signal a return to an older strategic mindset, one where the United States asserts dominance over the hemisphere and challenges any rival presence, whether from Russia, China, or Iran. In other words, this isn’t just about a single military strike or a one-off operation. It’s about re-establishing a geopolitical boundary that Washington believes slipped in recent decades and is now being forcefully redrawn more than 150 years after the original doctrine took shape.

This is an extremely costly build up that would not be done for no reason. The question is what kind of attack we will see if it does happen. Another question is whether the people and more importantly the army will support Maduro in the event of extensive U.S. airstrikes. 

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 14, 1960): Ruby Bridges's first day of school

Six-year-old Ruby Bridges began attending an all-white elementary school in New Orleans on this day in 1960, becoming the youngest of a group of Black students to racially integrate schools in the American South.