US-Iran War Insider Trading? Russia And Ukraine Exchange Missile Fire

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Southeast Asia to the Middle East, today’s headlines are another reminder that diplomacy and escalation are now unfolding side-by-side; with Thailand and Cambodia attempting to steady a fragile border truce, while Israeli airstrikes on Beirut threaten to unravel the Hezbollah ceasefire.

At the same time, Iran is reviewing a new U.S. peace proposal as Trump hints the conflict could soon wind down, while the release of a purported Jeffrey Epstein suicide note is once again fuelling global scrutiny and speculation years after his death. And out in the Pacific, the Solomon Islands has entered fresh political uncertainty after its prime minister was ousted in a confidence vote.

Today we explain scandal surrounding Axios and insider trading allegations. While both sides launched combined drone and missile strikes on civilian and military infrastructure in Russia-Ukraine, we take a look at where and why it matters.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Thai and Cambodian leaders hold talks on ASEAN sidelines
Thai and Cambodian leaders held talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines, as both sides seek to stabilise relations following months of border tensions and military clashes. The discussions come amid a fragile ceasefire after fighting along the disputed frontier last year killed nearly 150 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Regional officials said the meeting, coordinated with ASEAN support, focused on reducing tensions and preventing further escalation, though no formal breakthrough was announced.
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2. Israel strikes Beirut for first time since Hezbollah ceasefire
Israel carried out airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs for the first time since the ceasefire with Hezbollah came into effect last month, targeting what it described as a commander from Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force. The strike hit the Dahiyeh district, a known Hezbollah stronghold, with Lebanese media reporting casualties and significant damage to residential buildings in the area. The attack threatens the already fragile truce between Israel and Hezbollah.
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3. Iran reviews US proposal as Trump says war cold ‘be at an end’
Iran said it is reviewing a new U.S. peace proposal as Donald Trump claimed the conflict could soon “be at an end,” following what he described as “very good talks” over the past 24 hours. The proposal reportedly outlines a framework to formally end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while also laying the groundwork for future negotiations on sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program. Despite the optimism from Washington, Iranian officials have expressed scepticism, with lawmakers describing the proposal as an “American wish-list."
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4. Court releases suicide note purportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein  
A federal judge in New York has released a handwritten note purportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein shortly before his death in 2019, after it remained sealed in court records for nearly five years. The note, which has not been officially authenticated, was reportedly discovered by Epstein’s former cellmate following an earlier apparent suicide attempt weeks before Epstein died in custody. The release is likely to reignite scrutiny and conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein’s death, which was officially ruled a suicide by New York authorities.
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5. Solomon Islands PM ousted after losing confidence vote
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele has been ousted after losing a parliamentary vote of no confidence by 26 votes to 22, following weeks of political turmoil and cabinet defections. Manele, who came to power in 2024, will remain in office temporarily until the Governor-General formally appoints a successor, with lawmakers expected to vote on a new prime minister next week. The leadership change is being closely watched across the Pacific due to the Solomon Islands’ strategic importance and its increasingly close ties with China under recent governments.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

USA-Iran
According to sources at NBC, Trump announced "Project Freedom" on Sunday without coordinating properly with Gulf allies, which immediately caused problems. Saudi Arabia said no to US aircraft using Prince Sultan Airbase, and Kuwait blocked base access altogether. Without that regional support, the plan had no practical path forward, so Trump paused it by Tuesday and reframed it as diplomatic progress.

That reframe is doing a lot of work. The administration is now pointing to ongoing talks with Iran through Pakistani intermediaries as evidence that the pressure campaign is producing results. Negotiators are reportedly close to a one-page memorandum that would open the door to broader discussions about the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear programme. The nuclear question is where this gets complicated. Trump has stated publicly that Iran agreed to never pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran has not confirmed that. Their foreign ministry said the US proposal is still under review and they will respond through Pakistan when ready.

Where it gets interesting to me is the whole growing Axios scandal. Axios has many sources within the U.S. administration and has been accused of having ties to Israeli intelligence. Essentially, Axios has been at the forefront of the negotiation “scoop”, they regularly break the headlines regarding any news — which so far has led to a pattern of suspense, anticipation and then a whole bunch of nothing.

Nearly $920 million worth of crude oil short positions were reportedly opened around 70 minutes before Axios published a report claiming the U.S. and Iran were nearing a “14-point” agreement to end the war.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, close to 10,000 crude oil short contracts were placed at 3:40 AM ET, well before any major public developments emerged. After the Axios report was released at 4:50 AM ET, oil prices fell more than 12%, with the position potentially gaining around $125 million in value within hours. Shortly after, Iran announced the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” triggering an 8% rebound in oil prices.

Barak Ravid (Global Affairs Corespondent for Axios) called the claims “utter bullsh*t). Source

Russia-Ukraine 
Overnight, Russia launched seven Iskander-M ballistic missiles against targets across Ukraine, striking both industrial and energy infrastructure. Two missiles launched from near Taganrog hit the “Iskra” radar systems plant in Zaporizhzhia. Another two launched from Voronezh Oblast struck the “Pereshchepine” crude oil pumping station in Pereshchepyne. Two more missiles fired from near Bryansk impacted an unidentified target around Cherkasy. The final Iskander, launched from near Liski, struck the “Bazylevshchyna” natural gas processing plant in Poltava Oblast, continuing Russia’s pressure campaign on Ukraine’s defence-industrial and energy sectors. This research was compiled by AMK_Mapping – incredible source when it comes to following air and missile strikes. 

Notably, Crimea was not one of the launch sites. If you saw our recent post on this, you will know why. Ukrainian SOF drone teams have been actively hunting missile launchers and air defence systems across Crimea. In the last few months alone there have been at least 10 confirmed Iskander-M launchers destroyed on the peninsula. The strategy is about ensuring that if Russia wants to hold Crimea, it will be as costly as possible for them to maintain it. Furthermore, attacking Crimea and weakening its AD systems forces Russia to spread its AD thin across multiple fronts (especially when Crimea defends the Crimean bridge – a key logistical node). 

About 48 hours prior to this Ukraine carried out a combined long range missile and drone strike on the “VNIIR-PROGRESS” plant in Cheboksary, over 900km from the Ukrainian border. FP-5 “Flamingo” missiles alongside multiple drones reportedly struck the administrative section of the facility and possibly an adjacent production workshop, sparking a fire. The plant specialises in producing “Comet” interference resistant navigation modules used in Russian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. This is a significant development and should not be ignored for several reasons. Number 1, the Flamingo is by all accounts a “bad” cruise missile – massive heat signature, slow and unreliable – yet it has managed to pass through 900km of Russian territory. This ties back to the previous discussion above and exemplifies the point that Russia may be having an air defence problem. 

Sources
Available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

Altman quaking in his boots… ?

TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 7, 1915): A luxury ocean liner is destroyed

On this day in 1915, during World War I, a single torpedo fired by a German submarine struck the Lusitania off the coast of Ireland. Less than 20 minutes later, the ship sank, and some 1,200 people (of the nearly 2,000 on board) died. The Germans considered their attack justified: they had warned the Lusitania would be sunk, and it was carrying tons of Allied munitions. With 128 American citizens now dead and submarine warfare apparently without limits, public outrage in the United States ran high. Though the country would not enter World War I until 1917, the seeds of its involvement had been sown.